NIFTY STUCK IN A TIGHT RANGE COOL-OFF FIRST… RALLY NEXT? BANK NIFTY MAINTAINS BULLISH STRUCTURE

Nifty remained within tight range with no clear indication of the directional move yet while Bulls saw the stoppage bears tried hard to accelerate their grip into the markets. Broader markets could be elaborated as trading within a consolidation zone with no direction to decide the trades. Wherein Nifty closed with nominal loss of 0.83% while Bank Nifty closed with nominal loss of 0.44% last week. Brent crude oil remained volatile with close at 88.81$ per barrel.

Nifty may now continue to face immediate hurdle within the upper range of 24600-24800 kind of levels while on the downside a cool off could be seen within the range of 23900-24200 while Bank Nifty may still try to surpass the upper levels but immediate hurdle still remains at 58700 while on the downside 56000-56600 remains as a crucial support levels.

Overall we have been clear on our two major remarks one is bullish bet on “Nifty IT” while other one is short covering by FII’s. So far both went exactly as we mentioned earlier. “Nifty IT” in just 3-4 weeks rise back from the depth of 26000-27000 to almost hitting our earlier mentioned target of 32000 by making high’s of 31955 while FII’s from their net longs of 7-8% now 12-13% while net shorts in index from 2.71 lacs to 1.50 lacs which has increased in last week at 1.75 lacs which denotes FII’s are once again cautious & it indicates a caution for us as well.

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

• Rupee: Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 94.923 so far marginally away from our target.
• Dollar Index: DXY followed our earlier mentioned immediate resistance at 102 so now it may settle down near to 98.
• Brent Crude oil: Brent crude oil once again became volatile as it closed at 88.81$ per barrel it may hit 95$ on the upside while from those levels we expect once again a cool off towards 80$ per barrel in no time in case of any positive news arrival.
• FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 12-13% while net shorts in index declined to 1.45 lacs initially but rise back to 1.75 lacs once again. So this part now remains a neutral once as of now.

India Vix hits 9.47 kind of levels 2 weeks back while it once again has risen towards 14.76  & as earlier mentioned we didn’t expected it to sustain anywhere above 15-16 hence a cool off towards 10-11 was mentioned & we achieved that within a week as it remains at 12.55 as of now. We remain neutral for the coming week here FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 13-14% while net shorts in index declined to 1.75 lacs.

On the institutional from both FII’s & DII’s were net buyer’s where FII’s in cash market bought Equities worth of Rs. 1,227.97 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 9,258.63 cr. After many times in two consecutive weeks FII’s & DII’s both were net buyer’s this denotes the positive momentum could come in coming weeks as well.

Nifty once again gave an indecisive move within a trading range of 200-250 points & gave a closing at 24366 with nominal loss of 0.88%. In the coming week ahead Nifty is likely to face immediate hurdle at 24600-24800 kind of levels while a cools off is imminent towards 23900-24200 while any move above 24800 could trigger a smooth move towards 25300 till then an indecisiveness could remain into the broader markets. This time Bank Nifty could support the markets

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” if any cool off comes towards 29500 then a long can be created for an immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000-29000 this time.

Brent crude oil once again became volatile as it closed at 88.81$ per barrel it may hit 95$ on the upside while from those levels we expect once again a cool off towards 80$ per barrel in no time in case of any positive news arrival.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 95.255 so far marginally away from our target.
• DXY followed our earlier mentioned immediate resistance at 102 so now it may settle down near to 98.
• Brent crude oil once again became volatile as it closed at 88.81$ per barrel it may hit 95$ on the upside while from those levels we expect once again a cool off towards 80$ per barrel in no time in case of any positive news arrival.
• On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 12-13% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23900-24200 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. PM Modi announced that India will set up a modern, large-scale voluntary civil defence network to protect citizens from contemporary emergencies and security threats.
2. The nation is celebrating its 80th Independence Day. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation from the Red Fort, calling for a “Saptadhara” (seven-stream) formula to power India’s next leap and pushing for “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) and semiconductor growth.
3. The Indian government has opened a “window” for taxpayers to report foreign assets.
4. The government has dropped 23,467 income tax appeals that fell below specific tax-effect limits (₹60 lakh, ₹2 crore, and ₹5 crore).
5. Expert warnings were issued regarding the potential negative impact on CIBIL scores when using credit cards to pay rent.
6. The parliament has passed a key defence budget, ensuring the continuation of a vital drone program amid ongoing regional tensions.
7. Petrol and diesel prices remain stable across major cities amidst the global energy market fluctuations.
8. Industry experts and reports indicate that edible oil prices may remain elevated until at least November due to global market tightness, higher import bills, and geopolitical tensions, despite increased domestic kharif sowing.
9. Opposition leaders, including Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, marked the day with their own events, while there was continued political discourse regarding the Prime Minister’s speech and the government’s policies.
10. India’s ₹7,280 crore rare‑earth permanent magnet scheme attracted 20 bids, including from Larsen & Toebro and Coal India. The government plans to award up to 6,000 MTPA of integrated NdFeB magnet capacity to five winners, with each eligible for as much as 1,200 MTPA.
11. Tata Succession: Scions and top officials are emerging on an early shortlist for leadership succession at Tata.
12. Godrej Leadership Transition: Pirojsha Godrej, the fourth-generation scion, is taking over the reins at Godrej Industries.
13. Delhi HC Security: Delhi High Court received a bomb threat ahead of Independence Day celebrations.
14. SEBI Notice to Paytm: Executives at Paytm received notices from SEBI regarding the timing of regulatory disclosures made in 2023.

International news:

1.  Taliban’s 5th Anniversary: The Taliban is marking five years of rule in Afghanistan, with white flags of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” seen across Kabul.
2. International: Reports indicate severe heatwaves impacting Europe, with temperatures exceeding 35°C, and ongoing geopolitical concerns involving the UK and Israel.
3. Global oil prices continue to see upward pressure, with Brent crude and WTI futures posting significant weekly gains amid the ongoing naval blockade and lack of progress in peace talks.

4. President Donald Trump stated plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz “a territory of the United States” following the current conflict with Iran.

5. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has officially released its “V4 Pro” model, positioning it as a premium, higher-performance offering compared to its existing “V4 Flash” model, with pricing significantly higher to reflect its advanced capabilities.
6. US–China Tariff Concerns: The US White House is weighing anti-transhipment penalties against India over concerns that Indian routes may be used to assist China in evading US tariffs.
7. Sovereign Gold Bonds: SGB 2019-20 Series III matured today with a final redemption price of ₹15,310 per unit, generating a ~344% return.
8. FII Outflows: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) dumped ₹1 lakh crore worth of 10 key stocks, though 8 managed to defy the selloff.
9. Russian forces launched drone and missile strikes targeting Kyiv and Sumy, while Ukrainian intelligence services reported ongoing defense operations alongside escalating security measures in Kyiv.
10. Japan issued a strong diplomatic condemnation following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to the disputed Kuril Islands in the Pacific.
11. Hungary elected former Supreme Court president András Baka as president following an uncontested supermajority vote in parliament.
12. S. FDA issued a warning letter to Eugia Pharma, a subsidiary of Aurobindo Pharma, citing compliance issues at manufacturing facilities.
13. Air India’s CEO issued a strict directive to employees regarding compliance and rule adherence, warning of disciplinary consequences for non-compliance.
14. Fertilizer Import Relief: India secured 1.7 million tonnes of urea imports at significantly lower prices ($390–$393 per tonne) via an RCF tender, ensuring adequate supply ahead of the upcoming rabi (winter) cropping season.

Nifty once again gave an indecisive move within a trading range of 200-250 points & gave a closing at 24366 with nominal loss of 0.88%. In the coming week ahead Nifty is likely to face immediate hurdle at 24600-24800 kind of levels while a cools off is imminent towards 23900-24200 while any move above 24800 could trigger a smooth move towards 25300 till then an indecisiveness could remain into the broader markets. This time Bank Nifty could support the markets.

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” if any cool off comes towards 29500 then a long can be created for an immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000-29000 this time.

In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 76000-76500 range while immediate target could be towards 80000-81000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 25600 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24366
Nifty Potential Upside: 24600-24800 / 25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23900-24200

Sensex CMP: 78009.25
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000-81000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000-76500

Bank Nifty CMP:  57158.10
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 58700 / 60000-61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000-56700

Nifty Financial CMP: 26213.65
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25600

Nifty IT CMP: 31357.75
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 29000

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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