BULLISH STRUCTURE INTACT IN NIFTY & BANK NIFTY RANGE-BOUND MOVEMENT WITH A POSITIVE BIAS EXPECTED

Nifty remained in line with earlier expected cool off where it hit the lower end of the channel near to 24000 while giving nominal negative close of 0.47% for the week at 24252 while Bank Nifty gave a gain of 0.47% during the said period. Major weakness was witnessed in “Nifty IT” sector with loss of 2.63% for the week. Brent crude oil hit 94.83$ per barrel with a decisive close at 93.59$ per barrel.

In the coming week ahead nifty is likely to head towards upper end but may continue to face immediate hurdle at 24600-24800 kind of level while on the downside 23900-24000 may act as an active crucial support levels while in Bank Nifty the overall trend shall remain strong bullish with immediate hurdle at 58700 & any move above this could lead a potential runup towards 60000-61000 kind of levels.

FII’s have been very volatile since last 2 years where major selling has been done by them. In recent last 1 month time frame the FII’s has initiated their buy in Financials Services sector, Automobile Sector & IT Sector which denotes the possible short covering in the broader markets could be witnessed majorly by these sectors along with Consumer Services & Consumer Durables sector on the road. Here we can have a brief look on the major inflow & outflow sector wise:

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 94.923 so far marginally away from our target.
2. Dollar Index: DXY followed our earlier mentioned & now settled down near to 98.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier anticipated it became volatile hit almost 95$ on the upside while now we expect a cool off towards 86$ per barrel in coming 2-3 weeks.
4. FIIs remained covering shorts: FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 9-10% while net shorts in index declined to 1.45 lacs initially but rise back to 2.10 lacs once again. So this part now remains a neutral once as of now.

India Vix hits 9.47 kind of levels 2 weeks back while it once again has risen towards 14.76  & as earlier mentioned we didn’t expected it to sustain anywhere above 15-16 hence a cool off towards 10-11 was mentioned & we achieved that within a week as it remains at 12.55 as of now. We remain neutral for the coming week here FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 9-10% while net shorts in index declined to 2.10 lacs.

Nifty in the coming week ahead may head for 24600-24800 kind of levels & may face immediate hurdle at those levels while on the downside crucial support remains at 23900-24000 kind of levels while any move above hurdle levels we may get 25300 kind of levels in September series this time. Broader market moves may be supported by Bank Nifty & Reliance Industries.

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in September series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT”if any cool off comes towards 29500 then a long can be created for an immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000-29000 this time.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it became volatile hit almost 95$ on the upside while now we expect a cool off towards 86$ per barrel in coming 2-3 weeks.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Delhi’s Master Plan 2047 explicitly includes air taxis/air pods, inland waterways, expanded Metro/RRTS and AI-based traffic management, and proposes stronger IGI–Jewar airport links via road, rail and “futuristic” transport modes.
2. Mumbai’s food-safety crackdown has led the FDA to suspend licences of seven major establishments, including McDonald’s, Radio Club and Khar Gymkhana.
3. India’s retail sugar prices have jumped about 16% in a month after the sugar output estimate was cut to 306 LMT from 343 LMT, with crop damage, festive demand, tighter global supplies and hoarding adding pressure; the Centre has allowed 10 LMT of duty‑free raw sugar imports to ease prices.
4. Apollo Micro Systems will make an open offer to acquire up to a 26% stake in Premier Explosives at ₹698 per share.
5. India has told BRICS that AI and tech innovation must remain “secure, sustainable and people‑centric,” as stated by Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia.
6. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that resources are being weaponized across the world.
7. KM Birla’s Strategy: Chairman K.M. Birla called the “China+1” strategy “intellectually lazy,” advocating instead for a “World+1” approach for India Inc.
8. Domestic Indices: Markets closed with Sensex at 77,540.83 and Nifty at 24,252.00, though analysts warn that ongoing West Asia tensions may keep the outlook rangebound.
9. GDP Growth Projections: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised India’s FY27 GDP growth estimate to 6.8%. While down from FY26’s estimated 7.6%, the projection factors in challenges from West Asia conflicts, currency depreciation, and inflation risks.
10. SEBI Report on F&O Trading: A recent SEBI study revealed that nearly 89% of Futures & Options (F&O) traders under the age of 30 suffered net losses during the 2026 financial year.
11. Personal Finance & Tax Reminders: Financial portals are heavily emphasizing tax compliance guidelines as the August 31 deadline approaches for filing Income Tax Returns (ITR) for business and professional taxpayers
12. India’s Market Sentiment: A Bank of America fund manager survey cited by Bloomberg noted that India has temporarily become Asia’s least-preferred stock market due to valuation concerns, a lack of clear AI exposure, and domestic growth risks.
13. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) barred certain life insurers, including Pramerica and Edelweiss, from opening new branches for six months.
14. Government Initiatives & Infrastructure: The government is actively working on additional subsidy schemes for polysilicon manufacturing and has notified a mobile phone manufacturing scheme featuring extra incentives tailored for Indian brands. Additionally, the PNGRB authorized nearly 1,800 km of new LPG pipeline infrastructure backed by a ₹7,000 crore capital investment.

International news: 

1. Strait of Hormuz traffic has collapsed to just one transiting ship, raising the risk of a fresh surge in tanker rates.
2. Tensions rise in West Asia as the US tightens the Iran blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, turning around multiple ships.
3. Asian Markets & Tech Selloff: Asian equities recently experienced downward pressure, tracking a global semiconductor selloff (with major chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia seeing notable pullbacks) amid rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions.
4. Japan’s Currency & Rates: The Japanese yen has hovered near the 160-per-dollar threshold as markets anticipate potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with government backing.
5. India’s Market Sentiment: A Bank of America fund manager survey cited by Bloomberg noted that India has temporarily become Asia’s least-preferred stock market due to valuation concerns, a lack of clear AI exposure, and domestic growth risks.
6. Middle East Tensions & Oil: Escalating conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over Iran’s oil supply have kept energy markets volatile, with Brent crude remaining elevated around the low-to-mid $90 range.
7. US-Iran Tensions & Strait of Hormuz: President Donald Trump declared that Iran is not yet ready to make the “right deal” and labeled the Strait of Hormuz as “American territory”. Washington is vowing the toughest economic sanctions in history alongside an ongoing naval blockade, while Iranian leaders acknowledge severe economic strains.
8. Tariff and Inflation Adjustments: In an effort to counter domestic food inflation ahead of upcoming political cycles, President Trump announced a temporary three-month suspension of tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports to lower prices.
9. Nvidia denied recent rumors regarding the immediate rollout of a specialized China AI chip by the end of the year.
10. China’s Unitree introduced new humanoid robots (including the “Superman” model), as industry leaders point toward a potential “ChatGPT moment” for robotics.
11. Google has rolled out AI-powered JEE/NEET prep features across Search and Gemini, directly competing with edtech platforms.
12. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on 14 Indian banks, issuing bullish price targets for select top-tier institutions.
13. A Bank of America fund manager survey (via Bloomberg) reveals that 32% of regional investors are now net underweight on India, citing high valuations, weak growth, and limited direct exposure to artificial intelligence.
14. Wary of escalating Middle East conflict risks in the Red Sea, several major Asian crude buyers (including Japanese and South Korean refiners) are asking Saudi Aramco to relocate delivery collection points outside the region, opting for Egyptian ports like Sidi Kerir despite higher freight costs.

Nifty in the coming week ahead may head for 24600-24800 kind of levels & may face immediate hurdle at those levels while on the downside crucial support remains at 23900-24000 kind of levels while any move above hurdle levels we may get 25300 kind of levels in September series this time. Broader market moves may be supported by Bank Nifty & Reliance Industries.

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in September series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT”if any cool off comes towards 29500 then a long can be created for an immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000-29000 this time.

In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 76000-76500 range while immediate target could be towards 80000-81000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 25600kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026.

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24252
Nifty Potential Upside: 24600-24800 / 25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support:23900-24200

Sensex CMP: 77540.83
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000-81000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000-76500

Bank Nifty CMP:  57761.95
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside:58700 / 60000-61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000-56700

Nifty Financial CMP: 26261
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25600

Nifty IT CMP: 30532.85
Nifty IT Immediate Target:33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 29000

About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

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