NIFTY HOLDS THE FORT! BULLS DEFEND THE RALLY — IS 25,000 THE NEXT DESTINATION?

Nifty holds its ground above 24500 last week while Bank Nifty is still waiting for a move above 58600 but a decisive close above 57500 still gives the hopes for a fruitful move ahead in the August series. Meanwhile “Nifty IT” gave a bullish closing on Weekly charts may head for 33000-kind of levels. The Brent crude so far has hit lows of 78.11 while giving an indecisive close at 82.37 while Iran-Oman is said to have found out about an alternate solution for the Strait of Hormuz this Brent may fall further towards 73$ per barrel.

Nifty once again kept on its hold with strong hands above 24500 once the pace comes a gradual move could head towards 25000-25300 kind of levels while Bank Nifty has the audacity to hold on to the 57500 kind of levels & once it sustains above 58700 a move towards 60000-61000 cannot be ruled out.

Overall we have been clear on our two major remarks one is bullish bet on “Nifty IT” while other one is short covering by FII’s. So far both went exactly as we mentioned earlier. “Nifty IT” in just 3-4 weeks rise back from the depth of 26000-27000 to almost hitting our earlier mentioned target of 32000 by making high’s of 31846.40 while FII’s from their net longs of 7-8% now 13-14% while net shorts in index from 2.71 lacs to 1.50 lacs in just one week time & it looks like it has just began once they cover more shorts Nifty may easily ride above 25000 this time for good.

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 94.923 so far marginally away from our target.
2. Dollar Index: DXY followed our earlier mentioned immediate resistance at 102 so now it may settle down near to 98.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude oil as earlier mentioned it not only hit 85$ but also stretched its cool off towards 80$ per barrel we now expect it to hit 73$ per barrel soon as Iran & Oman & finalized for a solution to the route of Strait of Hormuz.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 13-14% while net shorts in index declined to 1.50 lacs. If this remains like this, we expect more short covering to happen in the August series itself.

India Vix hits 9.47 kind of levels 2 weeks back while it once again has risen towards 14.76  & as earlier mentioned we didn’t expected it to sustain anywhere above 15-16 hence a cool off towards 10-11 was mentioned & we achieved that within a week as it remains at 12.55 as of now. We remain neutral for the coming week here FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 13-14% while net shorts in index declined to 1.50 lacs. If this remains like this, we expect more short covering to happen in August series itself.

On the institutional from both FII’s & DII’s were net buyer’s where FII’s in cash market bought Equities worth of Rs. 2,887.66 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 7,713.37 cr.

Nifty now gave an indecisive close on Weekly charts at 24570.65 wherein 24200-24300 now may act as immediate support levels while on the upside any move above 24600 could give us 25000-25300 kind of levels. FII’s covered their shorts from 2.71 lacs to 1.50 lacs contracts ass on 08/08/2026. The possible buying into the broader market could be witnessed by Nifty IT & Reliance Industries this time.

Bank Nifty crucial supports shifted slightly higher at 56000-56600 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” after completing our earlier mentioned target & almost hit 32000 mark we now upgrade our target for 33000 for an immediate basis while remain neutral till the time it surpasses 32000 on Weekly closing basis while crucial support remains at 28000-29000 this time..

Brent crude oil as earlier mentioned it not only hit 85$ but also stretched its cool off towards 80$ per barrel we now expect it to hit 73$ per barrel soon as Iran & Oman & finalized for a solution to the route of Strait of Hormuz.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items, most of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 95.255 so far marginally away from our target.
• DXY followed our earlier-mentioned immediate resistance at 102 so now it may settle down near to 98.
• Brent crude oil as earlier mentioned it not only hit 85$ but also stretched its cool off towards 80$ per barrel we now expect it to hit 73$ per barrel soon as Iran & Oman & finalized for a solution to the route of Strait of Hormuz.
• On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 13-14% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 24200-24300 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Union Petroleum & Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has dismissed reports of any proposed levy or cess on cooking gas (LPG) as baseless rumours, saying the government has no such proposal under consideration.
2. The Centre has approved an Electronics Manufacturing Cluster (EMC 2.0) in Rajnandgaon district, Chhattisgarh, with expectations of attracting over ₹3,000 crore in investment and creating around 9,000 direct and indirect jobs
3. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has dismissed as “fake news” reports that New Delhi approached Israel for a defence pact in response to the new Pakistan–Saudi Arabia–Turkey security agreement.
4. A large majority of Indian students who plan to study abroad intend to return home after finishing their courses, with 81% saying they expect to come back to India, according to a new survey.
5. India is preparing a Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for polysilicon manufacturing to cut its complete dependence on Chinese imports and build a fully integrated solar PV supply chain.
6. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has confirmed that India’s tariff rationalisation will continue, with further measures likely in the FY28 (2027‑28) Budget, aiming to bring most customs duty rates into a single‑digit regime and cut the number of tariff slabs.
7. India-China LAC Talks: Officials from both nations met to discuss maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) ahead of a planned visit by President Xi Jinping.
8. Employment Push: NITI Aayog’s former VC Arvind Panagariya proposed creating “special employment regions” to foster job-led urban growth.
9. Gas Pipeline Standards: The central government plans to adopt international standards for gas pipeline coatings to boost efficiency.
10. Infrastructure Shifts: Indonesia’s government moves to increase control over state stakes in the $7.3 billion high-speed railway project, as Southeast Asian institutions prioritize funding regional AI data infrastructure.
11. RBI Inflation Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India trimmed its FY27 core inflation forecast to 4.3% (down from 4.7%) due to softening crude oil prices, while keeping the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25%.
12. UPI Fee Structure Framework: Parliament passed legislation granting authorisation to the government to permit banks to impose transaction charges/Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on select UPI payments
13. MSME Payment Delay Bill Passed: Parliament passed the MSME Development (Amendment) Bill, 2026, establishing stricter timelines for dispute resolution and requiring a 50% deposit for appeals to ease liquidity issues for small businesses.
14. India is considering a small levy on LPG and natural gas users to help fund a $42 billion strategic fuel reserve programme over the next 10 years.

International news: 

1. US companies are showing rising interest in India as bilateral trade between the two countries has crossed $240 billion, up from about $20 billion a decade ago, US Ambassador Sergio Gor said.
2. The US housing market is under pressure after United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), America’s largest mortgage lender by volume, reported a $451.9 million net loss for Q2 2026, sending its shares down 35% to an all-time low. At the same time, 30‑year fixed mortgage rates have climbed to 6.69%, the highest level in more than a year, adding to borrowing costs for homebuyers
3. US Tariff Concerns: New US policy proposals targeting trade and Russian sanctions carry potential tariff implications for Indian exports.
4. NATO Security: US intelligence reports indicate Russia could test NATO’s resolve via limited incursions.
5. Meta Fined $567M: A New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $567 million and overhaul platforms due to child safety and mental health concerns.
6. Saudi Supply Realignment: Saudi Arabia shifted major crude exports via its Red Sea Yanbu terminal and pipelines to bypass Persian Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb shipping disruptions.
7. European and Asian equity markets saw heightened volatility amid energy price shifts, supply chain disruptions in key international shipping lanes, and updates on US trade tariff policies
8. The US Senate advanced a new sanctions bill targeting secondary trade partners and entities facilitating Russian war financing and sanctions evasion.

9. Macao Casino Slump: Macao’s gambling revenue dropped sharply—ending 16 straight months of growth—driven by Beijing’s tightened crackdown on capital outflows and wealth controls affecting high-roller VIP spending.

10. Asian Hedge Funds Drawdown: Major Asia-focused multi-strategy funds suffered sharp monthly drawdowns, driven by a heavy selloff in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks across South Korea, Japan, and China.
11. Jefferies Portfolio Realignment: Jefferies’ Chris Wood sold shares of HDFC Bank and PB Fintech to pivot into two new stock picks.
12. Boeing 737 Max Inspection: The US FAA ordered inspections for hundreds of Boeing 737 Max aircraft, impacting global fleets including active aircraft in India.
13. UN Financial Warning: The United Nations Secretary-General warned that the organization faces an imminent financial collapse without urgent contributions and operational reforms from member states.
14. European Heatwave & Power Impact: Central and Eastern Europe face severe heatwaves that are breaking historical temperature records, forcing emergency shutdowns at power plants in countries like Poland to manage grid stress.

Nifty now gave an indecisive close on Weekly charts at 24570.65 wherein 24200-24300 now may act as immediate support levels while on the upside any move above 24600 could give us 25000-25300 kind of levels. FII’s covered their shorts from 2.71 lacs to 1.50 lacs contracts ass on 08/08/2026. The possible buying into the broader market could be witnessed by Nifty IT & Reliance Industries this time.

Bank Nifty crucial supports shifted slightly higher at 56000-56600 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” after completing our earlier mentioned target & almost hit 32000 mark we now upgrade our target for 33000 for an immediate basis while remaining neutral till the time it surpasses 32000 on Weekly closing basis while crucial support remains at 28000-29000 this time..

In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 76000-76500 range while immediate target could be towards 80000-81000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 25600 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly supports equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24570.65
Nifty Potential Upside: 24600 / 25000-25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 24200-24300

Sensex CMP: 78499.17
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000-76500

Bank Nifty CMP:  57746.45
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 58700 / 60000-61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000-56600

Nifty Financial CMP: 26466.
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25600

Nifty IT CMP: 31547.70
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 29000

About the Author:

Mr Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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