NIFTY & BANK NIFTY HIT MULTI-MONTH HIGHS STRONG MOMENTUM KEEPS 25,000 & 60,000 WITHIN REACH

Bulls are back as Nifty closes at 18 months high while Bank Nifty gave a close decisively above a 20-month high at 24334.30 & 58521.40 respectively. After a whole week Nifty & Bank Nifty gave a clear bullish momentum on Friday, though on a WoW basis, Nifty & Bank Nifty both gave marginal gains of 0.53% & 0.82% respectively but a multi-month high Weekly closing gave confidence among bulls that the coming week could be entirely of Bulls & the bears might lock back themselves into the coffin this time for sure.

USDINR continue to weaken amid growing concerns with rising crude oil, while the Dollar index remains stagnant near 100. Brent crude remains at a crucial resistance level of 87.30. Any close on or above this would be fatal for Bank Nifty for a very short period of time, as we do not expect it to sustain above 87.30 anytime soon.

Dollar Index continues to hover around 98-100 range while USDINR remains inbound for 92-93 in the coming months ahead. US-Israel war remains a crucial factor for deciding the broader volatility, whereas US pressure on sanctioning Russia & their allies are now a new drama in the town, though it may be short-lived but India may face some intermediate pressure from the US in this front.

As FII’s got tax exemptions from India government for investment in G-sec securities Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pumped roughly $1.9 billion into Indian government bonds in June, marking the highest foreign debt inflows in 16 months. This helped the stability of the rupee, which was the main objective behind the provided tax relief. If this inflow continues in coming weeks / months then we may continue to see the recovery in Rupee towards 92-93 kind of levels which remains a positive note for banking & financial sectors.

India Vix hits 9..47 below the levels of February 2026 (Now settled at 12.88) which denotes that broader markets have factored inn the peace between US-Iran while FII’s are having their net longs have risen from 8.50% to 11% above while net index short positions declined largly from 2.51 lacs to 2.17 lacs as of 17^th July 2026 which denotes that FII’s are also reaching their saturation level of selling & they have finally started covering their shorts gradually & an easy melt up in the broader markets could begin immediately.

On the institutional FII’s were net sellers in cash market, net sell of Rs. 9,119.76 cr. last week, while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 9,808.64 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58%, with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 17^th July 2026 at 2.17 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 11%, indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well & possible bottom formation in the broader markets as well.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum to continue in the coming week a few key major factors are likely to be considered. So far we have positive data developments across the board, which has been the reason for positive moves in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

• Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities to stabilise the Rupee, it recovered towards 94.155 to give a decisive close at 95.212 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 92-93 in a few weeks’ time frame following the US-Iran-Israel trade deal.
• Dollar Index: DXY remains stable near 100.
• Brent Crude oil: Brent crude now has an immediate hurdle at 87.30 if it sustains below this, then a meltdown could trigger a move towards 80$ & below, while a close above 87.30 could trigger a move towards 90-92$ max.
• FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 17^th July 2026 at 2.17 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 11%, indicating possible short covering to come in the coming days as well.

Nifty has now given its highest closing in 18 weeks at 24334.30 which denotes bulls are back & bears are lacking the strength with institutional buying back into the markets. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels very soon while crucial supports remains higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well above 11% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.17 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could come from Reliance Industries,  Bank Nifty & Nifty IT all combined efforts could be seen this time.

In Bank Nifty too gave a highest closing in 21 weeks at 58521.40 & any move above 58700 could immediately give us 60000-61000 kind of levels, while crucial supports remain at 56500-57000 kind of levels. The support may come from large-cap Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be above 30000 & a smooth flow could be towards 32000 in coming months ahead.

Brent crude now has an immediate hurdle at 87.30 if it sustains below this then a meltdown could trigger a move towards 80$ & below while a close above 87.30 could trigger a move towards 90-92$ max.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani, said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually, which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data mentioned below:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items, where most of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
• Dollar Index may remain stagnant at 98-101.
• Brent crude now has an immediate hurdle at 87.30. If it sustains below this, then a meltdown could trigger a move towards 80$ & below, while a close above 87.30 could trigger a move towards 90-92$ max.
• On the other side, FII’s net longs are now near to 11% & a recovery is possible towards 17%, followed by 27% till the coming weekend, which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23800-24000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets, we witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week, which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. The lead U.S. federal prosecutor will not oppose the DOJ’s decision to drop the criminal case against Gautam Adani and other defendants, clearing a key procedural hurdle for the prosecution’s formal dismissal.
2. The U.S. is reportedly sending more aerial refuelling tankers to Israel as it weighs expanding operations against Iran.
3. The lead U.S. prosecutor will not oppose the DOJ’s move to drop the Gautam Adani criminal case, clearing the way for the prosecution to be formally dismissed.
4. UK Politics: Keir Starmer marked his final Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs), announcing an end to his current political journey, while Andy Burnham won the Labour leadership race to succeed him as UK Prime Minister.
5. Apple Claims Top Spot: Apple has overtaken Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company once again, capitalising on a recent global sell-off in semiconductor and chip stocks.
6. India Nuclear Plant Breach: Data from contractors working at India’s largest nuclear plant (Kudankulam) was partially breached by a ransomware group; authorities state no sensitive security data was compromised.
7. Wall Street Tech Selloff: All major US stock indexes posted weekly losses as a sharp pullback in semiconductor and AI-related stocks triggered broader market anxiety.
8. Korea ETF Regulation: South Korea is tightening rules on high-risk, speculative ETFs to protect retail investors from sudden losses.
9. Singapore GIC Shuffle: Sovereign wealth fund GIC appointed two new Deputy Chief Investment Officers to oversee global strategies.
10. India-China Trade Policy: A top economic advisor urged India to rethink its strict restrictions on Chinese investment to boost local jobs.
11. China’s EV Crunch: Heavy electric vehicles are causing faster road wear while falling gas-tax revenues squeeze local infrastructure budgets.
12. TSMC AI Demand: TSMC raised its revenue forecasts on massive AI demand, though regional tech stocks remain volatile.
13. Global Tech Layoffs: Global automotive pressures continue as Volkswagen workers prepare to confront CEO Oliver Blume regarding potential restructuring and a threat affecting up to 140,000 jobs in Germany.
14. OpenAI’s Screenless Smart Speaker: Reports indicate that OpenAI’s first consumer hardware device will be a screenless, mobile smart speaker designed to act as an “AI companion.” It is being developed in collaboration with Jony Ive’s design firm, LoveFrom.

International news: 

1. S. senators reached a deal with President Trump on a Russia sanctions bill, clearing the way for tougher penalties that could target countries still buying Russian oil and goods — potentially putting renewed pressure on India.
2. S. demands that Iran publicly guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and pledge not to attack civilian ships.
3. China’s auto sales fell for the ninth straight month, while exports stayed strong as weak domestic demand continued to drag the market.
4. Trump said Iran had asked to continue talks, and the U.S. agreed, but he also declared that the ceasefire is over and warned that Washington will respond firmly
5. H-1B Audits for Indian IT: The US is turning up the pressure on Indian IT companies as whistleblower claims have triggered official H-1B visa audits.
6. Tech Shakeup: Mark Zuckerberg returned to X (formerly Twitter) after a three-year hiatus to officially unveil Meta’s new enterprise AI model, Muse Spark 1.1, directly challenging OpenAI and Anthropic.
7. Oil Supply Analysis: A major global assessment reveals the world has absorbed a historic loss of over a billion barrels of oil supply since the wider conflict began. While Brent crude prices have surprisingly stabilised below their April peak of $126/barrel, analysts warn that drained global buffer reserves leave the market highly vulnerable to future spikes.
8. UK Leadership Shift: Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation amid plunging poll numbers, former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is preparing to take over the Labour Party, positioning him to potentially become the UK’s first publicly identifying Catholic Prime Minister.
9. The “Korea Conundrum”: Investors are navigating a sharp disconnect in South Korea. While booming semiconductor exports have led to massive current account surpluses, the South Korean Won and Treasury Bonds have suffered, dropping South Korea’s Kospi index into a technical bear market down 22% from its June highs.
10. Geopolitical & Energy Fragility: Market sentiment remains tightly tethered to the Middle East, where renewed strikes are threatening the stability of a precarious US-Iran ceasefire. The ongoing friction continues to pose a supply chain and energy price risk across major Asian import hubs.
11. Regional Growth Forecasts: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has modestly upgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast for the region to 4.9% (up from 4.7%). Despite heavy AI semiconductor demand boosting tech hubs like Taiwan and South Korea, persistent inflation (projected at 4.3%) and shipping bottlenecks remain a challenge.
12. Global Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures experienced a slight dip following a major tech-driven rally, while the market prepares for the highly anticipated SK Hynix debut.
13. China’s Economic Indicators: Recent economic data reveals that China’s consumer inflation has slowed down more than expected (decelerating to around 1.0%), while factory-gate producer prices show signs of stabilising due to a pullback in commodity costs.
14. Vietnam’s Maritime Move: Vietnam is pushing forward with a major $4 billion port development project aimed at establishing a strategic trade stronghold and hedging against regional naval expansion.

Nifty has now given its highest closing in 18 weeks at 24334.30 which denotes bulls are back & bears are lacking the strength with institutional buying back into the markets. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels very soon while crucial supports remains higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well above 11% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.17 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could come from Reliance Industries,  Bank Nifty & Nifty IT all combined efforts could be seen this time.

• In Bank Nifty too gave a highest closing in 21 weeks at 58521.40 & any move above 58700 could immediately give us 60000-61000 kind of levels while crucial supports remain at 56500-57000 kind of levels. The support may come from large-cap Private sector banks.
• “Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be above 30000 & a smooth flow could be towards 32000 in coming months ahead.
• In Sensex, crucial supports shifted higher at 76000-77000 range while immediate target could be towards 80000-81000 kind of levels.
• Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 26000 kind of levels. The immediate upside target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.
• As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit a whopping 22.9 crores. This not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
• The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026.  

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24334.60
Nifty Potential Upside: 25000|
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23800-24000

Sensex CMP: 78151.45
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000-81000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000-77000

Bank Nifty CMP:  58521.40
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 60000-61000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56500-57000

Nifty Financial CMP: 26903.35
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 26000

Nifty IT CMP: 29226.60
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 31000-32000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stocks on Radar:

Large Cap.: 

1. HDFC Bank (CMP 820): This large-cap counter at CMP 819 add more if comes to 800 with strict SL placed at 760 one can expect a potential upside towards 876-900.
2. Reliance Industries (CMP 1327): This large-cap counter has recently posted above expectation results & looks good to add here at CMP 1327 with strict SL placed at 1270 one can expect a potential upside towards 1400-1450 in no time.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry-wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH1000079