NIFTY AT 24,000: BULLS AND BEARS BATTLE FOR CONTROL BANK NIFTY CONTINUES TO EYE THE 60,000 MILESTONE

Bulls are trying hard to defend their territory, while bears are fighting for their last survival, resulting in a tug-of-war between Bulls & Bears at the sharp 24000 mark, with each party fighting hard for survival. Brent crude oil is trying to defend the 70$ mark, while 80$ remains a crucial juncture above which broader markets may face major pressure. Any move below the 70$ mark would result in Nifty moving above the 25000 mark, while a move above 80$ may bring back 23500-23650 kind of levels.

Dollar Index continues to hover around 98-100 range while USDINR remains inbound for 92-93 in the coming months ahead. US-Israel war remains a crucial factor for deciding the broader volatility whereas US pressure on sanctioning Russia & their allies are now new drama in the town though it may be shorted out soon but India may face some intermediate pressure from US in this front.

As FII’s got tax exemptions from India government for investment in G-sec securities Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pumped roughly $1.9 billion into Indian government bonds in June, marking the highest foreign debt inflows in 16 months. This helped the stability of Rupee which was the main objective behind the provided tax relief. If this inflow continues in coming weeks / months then we may continue to see the recovery in Rupee towards 92-93 kind of levels which remains a positive note for banking & financial sectors.

India Vix is trading below the levels of February 2026 (Current rate 11.80) which denotes that broader markets have factored inn the peace between US-Iran while FII’s are having their net longs in between 9-10% while net index short positions stood largely at 2.51 lacs which denotes that FII’s are also reaching their saturation level of selling & if they start even covering their short positions then an easy melt up in the broader markets could begin immediately.

On the institutional front it is one of the rarest scenario’s where  FII’s & DII’s both were net buyers for the week. FII’s were net buyer’s with net buy of Rs. 4,669.88 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 8,275.62 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 11^th July 2026 at 2.55 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 9-10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well & possible bottom formation in the broader markets as well.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum to continue in the coming week as well few key major factors are likely to be considered. So, far we have positive data developments across the board which has been the reason for positive moves in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities to stabilize the Rupee it recovered towards 94.155 to give a decisive close at 95.212 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 92-93 in few weeks’ time frame following US-Iran-Israel trade deal.
2. Dollar Index: DXY remains stable near 100.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude till the time it holds below 80$ we do not have to fear anything while any move above 80$ could create additional volatility into the broader markets while any move below 70$ could get broader market to inch higher above 25000 this time.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 11^th July 2026 at 2.55 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 9-10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well.

Nifty has maintained its highest closing in 11-12 weeks marginally lower from last week at 24206.90 which denotes bulls are back & bears are lacking the strength with institutional buying back into the markets. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels once it sustains above 24500 very soon while crucial supports remains higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 9-10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.55 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could come from Bank Nifty this time.

In Bank Nifty any move above 58700 could immediately give us 60000-61000 kind of levels while crucial supports remain at 56500 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 30000 as of now.

Brent crude till the time it holds below 80$ we do not have to fear anything while any move above 80$ could create additional volatility into the broader markets while any move below 70$ could get broader market to inch higher above 25000 this time.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with a historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially, then abstained from buying or remained on the sell side, while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data mentioned below:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items, where most of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
• Dollar Index may remain stagnant at 98-101.
• Brent crude till the time it holds below 80$ we do not have to fear anything, while any move above 80$ could create additional volatility in the broader markets, while any move below 70$ could get the broader market to inch higher above 25000 this time.

On the other side, FII’s net longs are now near 9-10% & a recovery is possible towards 17%, followed by 27% till the coming weekend, which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23800-24000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets, we witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week, which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. PM Modi’s Schedule: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heading to Rajasthan to inaugurate key regional projects and is visiting Gujarat to provide a major boost to the semiconductor industry.
2. India is targeting USD 150 billion in electronics exports by 2030, compared with about USD 29.1 billion in FY24, showing how ambitious the goal is.
3. The government has exempted IFSC units in GIFT City from licensing requirements for chartering foreign vessels for EXIM and international trade operations. This move is aimed at easing shipping activity and strengthening GIFT City’s role as a global maritime hub.
4. Shapoorji Pallonji Financing: The group has priced a major ₹21,500-crore financing deal with investors, including Deutsche Bank and BlackRock.
5. Diamond Exports: While India’s diamond exports face ongoing global pain, emerging trends show stronger consumption patterns taking over domestically.
6. GIFT City Changes: The Indian government has opened up regulatory doors for maritime finance at GIFT City, Gujarat, to capture global market share.
7. Alcohol Regulations Tightened: The Union Health Ministry has removed existing licensing exemptions for medicinal formulations that contain high ethyl alcohol content (like certain aromatic tinctures and ginger preparations) to avoid public misuse.
8. Assam has proposed cutting VAT on piped natural gas to 5% from 14.5% to promote cleaner fuel adoption. This move is aimed at making natural gas cheaper and encouraging wider use.
9. The Health Ministry has ruled that oral medicines with over 12% ethyl alcohol can no longer be sold OTC. These products, including some cough syrups, will now require a doctor’s prescription, removing their previous exemption to prevent misuse.
10. The Oil Ministry said E20 may reduce mileage by about 3–5%, but it improves cleaner combustion and supports energy security. It also positions ethanol blending as a step toward lower emissions and reduced crude oil imports.
11. FM Nirmala Sitharaman will meet PSU bank heads on Monday to review foreign currency deposit mobilisation amid weak inflows. The discussion is expected to focus on ways to improve deposit growth and support banks’ funding needs.
12. Gujarat has received ₹134.80 crore under the Centre’s Cotton Productivity Mission, and farmers can apply for assistance from July 10. The scheme is meant to improve cotton yields and support cleaner, higher-quality production.
13. Piyush Goyal chaired a review meeting with the National Productivity Council to strengthen inter-departmental coordination and improve service delivery. The discussion focused on building a more efficient and integrated administrative framework
14. Maritime Finance: The Indian government has opened the floodgates for maritime finance by easing regulations at GIFT City.

International news: 

1. S. senators reached a deal with President Trump on a Russia sanctions bill, clearing the way for tougher penalties that could target countries still buying Russian oil and goods — potentially putting renewed pressure on India.
2. S. demands that Iran publicly guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and pledge not to attack civilian ships.
3. China’s auto sales fell for the ninth straight month, while exports stayed strong as weak domestic demand continued to drag the market.
4. Trump said Iran had asked to continue talks, and the U.S. agreed, but he also declared that the ceasefire is over and warned that Washington will respond firmly
5. H-1B Audits for Indian IT: The US is turning up the pressure on Indian IT companies as whistleblower claims have triggered official H-1B visa audits.
6. Tech Shakeup: Mark Zuckerberg returned to X (formerly Twitter) after a three-year hiatus to officially unveil Meta’s new enterprise AI model, Muse Spark 1.1, directly challenging OpenAI and Anthropic.
7. Oil Supply Analysis: A major global assessment reveals the world has absorbed a historic loss of over a billion barrels of oil supply since the wider conflict began. While Brent crude prices have surprisingly stabilized below their April peak of $126/barrel, analysts warn that drained global buffer reserves leave the market highly vulnerable to future spikes.
8. UK Leadership Shift: Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation amid plunging poll numbers, former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is preparing to take over the Labour Party, positioning him to potentially become the UK’s first publicly identifying Catholic Prime Minister.
9. The “Korea Conundrum”: Investors are navigating a sharp disconnect in South Korea. While booming semiconductor exports have led to massive current account surpluses, the South Korean Won and Treasury Bonds have suffered, dropping South Korea’s Kospi index into a technical bear market down 22% from its June highs.
10. Geopolitical & Energy Fragility: Market sentiment remains tightly tethered to the Middle East, where renewed strikes are threatening the stability of a precarious US-Iran ceasefire. The ongoing friction continues to pose a supply chain and energy price risk across major Asian import hubs.
11. Regional Growth Forecasts: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has modestly upgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast for the region to 4.9% (up from 4.7%). Despite heavy AI semiconductor demand boosting tech hubs like Taiwan and South Korea, persistent inflation (projected at 4.3%) and shipping bottlenecks remain a challenge.
12. Global Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures experienced a slight dip following a major tech-driven rally, while the market prepares for the highly anticipated SK Hynix debut.
13. China’s Economic Indicators: Recent economic data reveals that China’s consumer inflation has slowed down more than expected (decelerating to around 1.0%), while factory-gate producer prices show signs of stabilizing due to a pullback in commodity costs.
14. Vietnam’s Maritime Move: Vietnam is pushing forward with a major $4 billion port development project aimed at establishing a strategic trade stronghold and hedging against regional naval expansion.

Nifty has maintained its highest closing in 11-12 weeks marginally lower from last week at 24206.90 which denotes bulls are back & bears are lacking the strength with institutional buying back into the markets. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels once it sustains above 24500 very soon while crucial supports remains higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 9-10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.55 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead.

This possible broader move could come from Bank Nifty this time.

1. In Bank Nifty any move above 58700 could immediately give us 60000-61000 kind of levels while crucial supports remain at 56500 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.
2. “Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 30000 as of now.
3. In Sensex, crucial support remains higher at the 75600-76000 range, while the immediate target could be towards 79000-80000 levels.
4. Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 26000 kind of levels. The immediate upside target still lies at the 28000 levels.
5. As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit a whopping 22.9 crores. This not only helps the capital markets directly but also helps Equity investments.
6. The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to an all-time high of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24206.90
Nifty Potential Upside: 24500 / 25000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23800-24000

Sensex CMP: 77569.39
Sensex Potential Upside: 79000-80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 75600-76000

Bank Nifty CMP:  58045.90
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 58700 / 60000-61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56500

Nifty Financial CMP: 26831.05
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 26000

Nifty IT CMP: 28010.40
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stocks on Radar:

Large Cap.:

• IRCTC (CMP 503): This railway counter looks good to add here at CMP 503 with strict SL placed at 477 for potential upside towards 570 in short term.
• Canara Bank (CMP 128): This large-cap bank looks good to add here within the range of 125-129 with strict SL placed at 114 for an estimated possible upside towards 145-150 kind of levels.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH1000079