CRUDE SHOCKWAVES: BRENT SPIKES PAST $100, DRAGGING NIFTY LOWER BROADER MARKETS REMAINED OVERSOLD

Bears attacked once again as Nifty drops 2.33% last week creating panic among investors as Brent Crude Oil surpasses 100$ per barrel mark making high’s of 102 but gave a decisive close below 100 at 98.69$ per barrel. Nifty dropped 2.33% last week while Bank Nifty dropped 3.12%. The fear was visible on screen while sudden spike in Brent crude left everyone be fizzled.

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 creating panic in the banking & financial sector but technically a double top formation near to 97 is possible on the formation & if it confirms, then a cool off towards 93-94 is imminent in August series.
2. Dollar Index: DXY gave a breakout above 100 but immediate resistance remains at 102 so it will be a wait-and-watch scenario.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude oil hits 102, which created the initial panic & now in the coming weeks ahead 102 remains as an immediate hurdle zone & if it respects this then a cool-off towards 90-85$ per barrel could be seen.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs then last recorded on 17^th July 2026 at 2.17 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 11% now once again net longs came between 7-8% while net shorts reached 2.71 lacs denotes a saturation level where FII’s may once again start covering their short positions.

India Vix hits 9.47 kind of levels 2 weeks back while it once again has risen towards 14.76 while do not expect it to sustain anywhere above 15-16 hence a cool off towards 11-12 could possibly bring the broader market up while a soft stabilization could persist. FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs then last recorded on 17^th July 2026 at 2.17 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 11% now once again net longs came between 7-8% while net shorts reached 2.71 lacs denotes a saturation level where FII’s may once again start covering their short positions.

On the institutional FII’s were net sellers in cash market net sell of Rs. 7,182.08 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 8,637.58 cr. FII’s are now once again at saturation level with net longs within 7-8% while net shorts at 2.71 lacs.

Nifty after giving a close of 18 weeks high once again hammered due to rising crude oil but still holds on to the crucial support levels of 23500-23650 while potential upside still remains 25000 as broader markets remain at a saturation level where FII’s net index longs remain at historical low’s of 7-8% while net shorts remains at 2.71 lacs contracts as on 25/07/2026. This possible broader move could come from Reliance Industries, Bank Nifty & Nifty IT all combined efforts could be seen this time.

Bank Nifty too gave after giving highest closing in 21 weeks managed to hold the crucial support levels of 56000 while a potential upside now remains at 58000 followed by 60000 in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be above 30000 & a smooth flow could be towards 32000 in coming months ahead.

Brent crude oil hits 102 which created the initial panic & now in coming weeks ahead 102 remains as an immediate hurdle zone & if it respects this then a cool off towards 90-85$ per barrel could possibly be seen.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items, where most of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may make double top at 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 is imminent.
• Dollar Index may remain stagnant at 98-102.
• Brent crude oil hits 102 which created the initial panic & now in coming weeks ahead 102 remains as an immediate hurdle zone & if it respects this then a cool off towards 90-85$ per barrel could possibly be seen.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 7-8% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23500-23650 in Nifty.

In the broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week, which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. India’s data‑center growth will be driven by AI, cloud and data‑localization, but JM Financial flags land and reliable power as the key constraints.
2. India’s gem and jewellery exports rose 26.5% YoY to $2.21bn in June, signaling a recovery in overseas demand after a weak base and improving orders.
3. LPG tanker Disha was attacked in Iranian waters; all 28 Indian crew safe, per the Indian Embassy. Incident highlights ongoing Gulf shipping risks and energy-route concerns.
4. Apparel Export Concerns: Indian apparel exporters face potential disadvantageous headwinds due to proposed US import levy changes, though overall UK-bound exports are projected to reach $115B by 2030 under trade pacts.
5. Rail & Infrastructure: The Union Cabinet cleared a major new railway project for Andhra Pradesh alongside a dedicated Chemical Park Scheme.
6. Fuel Rates Stable: Petrol and diesel prices remain unchanged across major Indian cities including Delhi and Mumbai.
7. Global Oil & Markets: US stock indices rebounded slightly as crude oil prices retreated below $100/barrel, easing pressure after energy price surges earlier in the week.
8. Tax Compliance: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman instructed the Income Tax department to strictly crack down on tax evaders while simplifying compliance processes for honest taxpayers.
9. FDI Rules Eased for E-Commerce Exports: The government relaxed FDI guidelines for export-focused e-commerce companies to encourage cross-border trade and logistics expansion.
10. Credit-Deposit Ratio Surge: The credit-to-deposit ratio across Indian banks touched a 62-year high of 82.6% in Q1, reflecting sustained credit demand relative to deposit growth.
11. Energy Infrastructure Strategy: India plans Phase-2 of its strategic petroleum reserves under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, estimated at ₹14,527 crore. Strategic refiners HPCL and BPCL confirmed secured crude supplies through August while scouting options for September.
12. Govt permits Amazon and Flipkart to create export-only inventories and relaxes FDI rules to boost Indian manufacturing and global exports.
13. India approves ₹14,527 crore Phase‑II strategic petroleum reserve expansion under PPP to strengthen energy security and increase crude storage capacity.
14. E-Commerce FDI Eased: The government relaxed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) guidelines for e-commerce companies focused on exports.
15. SEBI Framework Overhaul: SEBI proposed reforming its online dispute resolution mechanism and suggested lowering the minimum investment threshold for Mutual Fund-only PMS to ₹25 lakh.

International news: 

1. Dubai residents can earn over Dh3,000 plus travel perks for referring family and friends to visit, receiving cash-equivalent rewards, airline miles, hotel points, or travel vouchers depending on the campaign.
2. Global ultra-wealthy (>$30mn) hit a record 556,850 in 2025, up 14.4%—the fastest pace since 2017—driven by strong equity, private assets and business-wealth gains.

3. China-EU Trade Tensions: Beijing blacklisted 14 European companies in retaliatory moves linked to sanctions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

4. US-Iran Escalation: Tensions deeper in West Asia following fresh strikes near key ports/bases, driving volatility across energy and shipping sectors.

5. Global Oil & Markets: US stock indices rebounded slightly as crude oil prices retreated back below $100/barrel, easing pressure after energy price surges earlier in the week.
6. SpaceX Starship Pivot: SpaceX is shifting major focus to Starship deployments for orbital infrastructure and Starlink expansion, dialing back some commercial Falcon customer capacity.
7. Yemen Front Re-opens: Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a missile strike against Saudi Arabia’s city of Jizan, threatening a major resurgence of the conflict along the Red Sea trade corridor.
8. New U.S. Tariffs Cause Pushback: The U.S. administration enacted new 10%–12.5% tariffs across 60 trading partners, citing labor standard concerns. Major trade partners—including Japan, Australia, and Singapore—have strongly disputed the claims.
9. Central Bank Stance (Bank of England): Economists expect the Bank of England to maintain its benchmark rate at 3.75%, as energy market volatility and Middle East tensions keep inflation forecasts above target.
10. Asian & Global Markets Under Pressure: Asian stock indices declined following a sharp sell-off in AI-related tech shares, paired with global market jitters over rising geopolitical tensions.
11. South Korea Trade Balance: South Korea reported a strong trade surplus of $12.22B for the first 20 days of July, though local equities continue to experience high volatility tied to tech sector swings.
12. EU Antitrust Penalty Against Google: European Union regulators hit Alphabet’s Google with an €890 million ($1 billion) fine over antitrust violations, ruling that the company unfairly boosted its own proprietary services in search results at the expense of competitors.
13. Middle East Shipping Crisis & Surge in Oil Prices: Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea have sparked fears of a second maritime chokepoint closure alongside the Strait of Hormuz. International Brent crude prices soared past $100 per barrel for the first time since May as shipping insurance costs doubled.
14. AI Rotation Watch: Heavy volatility in global tech and chipmaker stocks (such as TSMC and SK Hynix) is keeping Asian technology markets on high alert, with investors rotating exposure across major artificial intelligence supply chains.

Nifty after giving a close of 18 weeks high once again hammered due to rising crude oil but still holds on to the crucial support levels of 23500-23650 while potential upside still remains 25000 as broader markets remain at a saturation level where FII’s net index longs remain at historical low’s of 7-8% while net shorts remains at 2.71 lacs contracts as on 25/07/2026. This possible broader move could come from Reliance Industries, Bank Nifty & Nifty IT all combined efforts could be seen this time.

Bank Nifty too gave after giving highest closing in 21 weeks managed to hold the crucial support levels of 56000 while a potential upside now remains at 58000 followed by 60000 in August series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be above 30000 & a smooth flow could be towards 32000 in coming months ahead.

In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 74000-75000 range while immediate target could be towards 80000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 25000 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 27000-28000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23767.45
Nifty Potential Upside: 25000
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23500-23650

Sensex CMP: 76059.77
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 74000-75000

Bank Nifty CMP:  56693.50
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 60000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000

Nifty Financial CMP: 25909.90
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25000

Nifty IT CMP: 28767.95
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000 /32000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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