Budget Expectations

DALAAL STREET’S EXPECTATIONS FROM INTERIM-BUDGET FY2024-25

1. The government will target a lower deficit in the 2024-25 fiscal years despite lifting capital expenditure to an all time high.

2. Care Edge ratings anticipates a budgetary allocation around 3 lakh Cr for the railways in the Union Budget 2024-25, reflecting a 25% increase from previous year. The railways’ ambitious plans include the indigenous production of 400 energy-efficient Vanda Bharat trains, with 41 operational as of January 2024.

3. The real estate sector body added that there should also be a provision of a credit guarantee scheme for housing loans up to 40 lakh and house improvement loans up to 20 lakh.

4. Bharat real estate will contribute 20% in GDP once it crosses the $10 trillion

5. Government may look to encourage private investment with an extension to the concessional 15 per cent income tax rate for new manufacturing units.

6. Goldman Sachs has made a similar prediction, suggesting that the government will look to consolidate the fiscal deficit to 5.3 per cent of GDP in line with its medium-term fiscal consolidation target of reaching 4.5 per cent of GDP by FY26.

7. Deloitee said that with Budget 2024, the government is likely to focus more on Green Energy. It further suggested enhanced private sector participation in infrastructure projects.

8. Ed-tech industry projected to reach $4 billion by 2025, the budget is expected to prioritize digital education initiatives aligned with the National education policy 2020.

9. Aiming to increase the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) to 50% by 2030, are expected to be a part of the budget.

10. Concurrently, the budget allocation for the agricultural sector witnessed a fivefold rise, escalating from Rs 22,652 crore in FY15 to Rs 1.15 lakh crore in FY24.

11. The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance said that Indian pharmaceutical sector’s goal to reach a market size of $120-130 billion by 2030 and $400-450 billion by 2047, considering the current size of the domestic pharma market, which stands at around $50 billion.

12. In the financial year 2023-24, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has allocated a substantial amount of Rs 89,155 crore, marking a noteworthy 13 percent rise from the revised estimates of 2022-23.

13. It is noteworthy that 97 percent of this allocation is designated for the Department of Health and Family Welfare, receiving Rs 86,175 crore, while the Department of Health Research is allotted Rs 2,980 crore.

14. The funding for the PM Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM ABHIM), aimed at establishing primary health infrastructure, has seen a substantial 123 percent increase from Rs 1,885 crore in 2022-23 RE to Rs 4,200 crore in 2023-24.

15. In the fiscal 2024 budget, the finance minister allocated approximately Rs 10 lakh crore for infrastructure capital expenditure, marking a 33 percent increase from the previous year.

16. ICRA predicts a 16-21 percent year-on-year increase in road execution activity, reaching 12,000-12,500 km in FY24, which falls short of the government’s target of 14,000 km.