THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON: BEARS HOLD FIRM AS NIFTY & BANK NIFTY REMAINS AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE

Broader markets acted like “Curious case of Benjamin Button” where neither Bulls now Bears know which way to go while Bulls & Bear had the tug of war & either party tried hard to turn the game into their own favor. However, still Bears won with net loss of 3.10% in Nifty & 2.03% in Bank Nifty last week while “Nifty IT” remained on sideline & holding the grounds of 28000 mark.

Majority of investors continued to remain in dilemma why market is not moving up? Well, we have consistently mentioned about the longs & Shorts of Retail V/s FII’s which usually remains inversely proportionate & so far FII’s net shorts in index remains nearly at 2 years high at 3.20 lacs vs retails now reaching its 3-4 years levels of net longs at 2.58 lacs (both data as on 28/09/2026) while post the roll over FII’s were 2.67 lacs & retails were 2.24 Lacs but again both started inverse road map where FII’s were 3.10 lacs & Retail were 2.50 lacs. This time the saturation level may come near to 3.25 lacs of FII’s while Retails may rise till 2.50-2.70 lacs with net longs of FII’s near to 8%. We expect once Retails starts to wind up its longs & FII’s starts to cover the shorts the market may bottom-out & strong upward momentum may emerger which may take an immediate target towards 24300 kind of levels.

FII’s have been very volatile since last 2 years where major selling has been done by them. After recent last 1 month time frame the FII’s has initiated their buy in Financial Services sector, Healthcare, Consumer Services Sector & IT Sector they have once again showed some changes as they have shorted in Financial Sector. Here we can have a brief look on the major inflow & outflow sector wise:

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee may climb upward towards 95 in coming weeks ahead.
2. Dollar Index: DXY standing right at resistance at 102 we may see a cool off towards 99 in coming weeks ahead.
3. Brent Crude oil: In Brent crude oil as earlier anticipated to hit 90$ from 110$ so far it has hit 97.41 we continue to expect it to hit 90$ per barrel in coming week ahead. Any slight positive news could do the stance.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s net longs & shorts now have once again shown drastic changes where net longs stand near to 8% while net shorts now remain at 3.10 lacs contacts. We expect a saturation in this data & a trend reversal in the Index from Net longs of 7-8% & Net shorts from 3.25 lacs contracts in the coming weeks.

Nifty closed at 22421.95 with net loss of 3.11%. FII’s have hit 3.10 lacs (Possibly big saturation levels from 3.25 lacs) while Retail has also reached its possible saturation levels to hold longs at 2.50 lacs (Saturation at 2.50-2.70 lacs) while  DII’s added aggressive longs & Pro have added longs contracts almost in last week. We expect once Retails starts to wind up their longs & FII’s starts to cover the shorts the market may bottom-out & strong upward momentum may emerger which may take an immediate target towards 24300 kind of levels while crucial supports now lying within the bigger range of 21800-22200. This time major movement could get triggered by Banking & Financials Sector followed by IT & Consumer Durables goods sector.

However, Bank Nifty may show us an immediate crucial support of 52700-53500 kind of levels while immediate potential upside remains at 57000 & 58000-58700 in upcoming Festival season. The support may come from large-cap Public Sector banks.

“Nifty IT” sector has shown immense response by FII’s with consistent buying in last 45 days we expect an immediate target of 32000-33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000 this time.

In Brent crude oil as earlier anticipated to hit 90$ from 110$ so far it has hit 97.41 we continue to expect it to hit 90$ per barrel in coming week ahead. Any slight positive news could do the stance.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news item where major of the news items are mentioned below:

1. Rupee: Rupee may climb upward towards 95 in coming weeks ahead.
2. Dollar Index: DXY standing right at resistance at 102 we may see a cool off towards 99 in coming weeks ahead.
3. Brent Crude oil: In Brent crude oil as earlier anticipated to hit 90$ from 110$ so far it has hit 97.41 we continue to expect it to hit 90$ per barrel in coming week ahead. Any slight positive news could do the stance.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 8% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 21800-22200 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has urged sugar mills to shift focus from plain sugar to high-value by-products like ethanol, compressed bio-gas (CBG), and bio-manure, calling the future of standalone sugar production “mediocre.
2. The government’s credit guarantee cover for MSME invoice financing on TReDS is now live, and M1Xchange has completed the first transaction under this mechanism
3. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has announced that about 1,000 trained personnel will be deployed to support exporters at district and state levels, with outreach and handholding in regional languages
4. India has launched an anti-dumping probe into imports of glycine from China after domestic producer Avid Organics filed a complaint alleging injury from dumped shipments.
5. RBI says FCNR(B)-linked PSL exemptions will apply only to deposits mobilized until August 31.
6. Oil prices remain a focal point as Brent crude hovers near high levels following West Asian tensions, regional tanker attacks, and Houthi forces reaching key islands near vital shipping lanes like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
7. Major global technology discussions highlight India’s push for AI infrastructure, with commerce officials holding talks with Microsoft regarding local cloud and GPU capabilities.
8. Private Equity and Venture Capital investments rose sharply in August to $3.3 billion across 99 deals (up 55% year-on-year from $2.14 billion), heavily driven by mega-deals such as Alpha Alternatives’ $787 million road asset acquisition.
9. PM Modi urged BRICS member nations to cut trade barriers and turn their growing economic weight into stronger business and investment ties.
10. Finance Minister Nirmal Sitharaman called for stronger safeguards around AI to prevent risks without stifling industry innovation.

International news:

1. Iran has temporarily suspended the 10% freight charge on foreign vessels carrying oil, gas and LPG products to reduce transport costs and support energy shipments.
2. US Commerce has ruled that India’s solar subsidies violate trade rules.
3. Accuracy Shipping’s subsidiary A.R.S. Terminals receives a CBIC letter of intent to set up a container freight station at Kandla, involving ₹25 crore capex and targeting ₹175–200 crore in revenue.
4. Major global technology discussions highlight India’s push for AI infrastructure, with commerce officials holding talks with Microsoft regarding local cloud and GPU capabilities.
5. Donald Trump brushed aside warnings from researchers about potential human extinction risks from advanced AI, emphasizing that his main focus is ensuring the U.S. keeps its competitive lead over China. Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signaled that the company may weigh slowing down cutting-edge development due to growing industry and employee concerns.
6. Apple formally unveiled its highly anticipated, over-$2,000 foldable iPhone alongside other flagship hardware and ecosystem updates following a decade of development.
7. Oracle reported strong momentum with cloud sales more than doubling, beating estimates on the back of heavy artificial intelligence demand. On the other hand, software maker Adobe missed forecasts, highlighting lingering investor concerns over AI’s short-term commercial impact.
8. The U.S. and nations worldwide marked the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, reflecting on decades of enduring grief and the enduring impact on global foreign policy and domestic security.
9. Wall Street saw a pullback in major stock indexes (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) as spiking oil prices (surging past $100 a barrel) and evolving Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations weighed on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the UK economy unexpectedly posted 0.4% growth in July, buoyed heavily by expansions in AI and cloud computing sectors.

Nifty closed at 22421.95 with net loss of 3.11%. FII’s have hit 3.10 lacs (Possibly big saturation levels from 3.25 lacs) while Retail has also reached its possible saturation levels to hold longs at 2.50 lacs (Saturation at 2.50-2.70 lacs) while  DII’s added aggressive longs & Pro have added longs contracts almost in last week. We expect once Retails starts to wind up their longs & FII’s starts to cover the shorts the market may bottom-out & strong upward momentum may emerger which may take an immediate target towards 24300 kind of levels while crucial supports now lying within the bigger range of 21800-22200. This time major movement could get triggered by Banking & Financials Sector followed by IT & Consumer Durables goods sector.

However, Bank Nifty may show us an immediate crucial support of 52700-53500 kind of levels while immediate potential upside remains at 57000 & 58000-58700 in upcoming Festival season. The support may come from large-cap Public Sector banks.

“Nifty IT” sector has shown immense response by FII’s with consistent buying in last 45 days we expect an immediate target of 32000-33000 while crucial support still remains at 28000 this time.
In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 71000-72000 range while immediate target could be towards 78000 kind of levels.
Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 24000 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 27200 kind of levels.
As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  22421.95
Nifty Potential Upside: 24300
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 21800-22200

Sensex CMP: 71909.70
Sensex Potential Upside: 78000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 71000-72000

Bank Nifty CMP:  54450.75
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 57000 / 58000-58700 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 52700-53500

Nifty Financial CMP: 24556.10
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27200
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 24000

Nifty IT CMP: 28304.70
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 32000-33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 28000

 About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
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