NIFTY SETS ITS SIGHTS ON 25000 “NIFTY IT” EMERGES AS NEXT GROWTH LEADER EYES 30000

Bulls are back bears feared as Nifty gave highest closing in 11 weeks though a gradual one but a decisive close above 24260. A breather has been taken by the broader markets as brent crude oil melts down towards 70$ by making 70.17$ per barrel as weekly low which now lies at the levels where US-Iran-Israel issues began back in February 2026. Which denotes all the negativity due to this war started has been cooled off & things are highly likely to remain back to normal as of now. Dollar Index remains stable near 100 level while Rupee hover around 95 but is highly likely to settle down towards 92-93 per dollar into the coming weeks / months ahead.

As FII’s got tax exemptions from India government for investment in G-sec securities Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pumped roughly $1.9 billion into Indian government bonds in June, marking the highest foreign debt inflows in 16 months. This helped the stability of Rupee which was the main objective behind the provided tax relief. If this inflow continues in coming weeks / months then we may continue to see the recovery in Rupee towards 92-93 kind of levels which remains a positive note for banking & financial sectors.

India Vix is trading below the levels of February 2026 (Current rate 11.80) which denotes that broader markets have factored inn the peace between US-Iran while FII’s are having their net longs in between 9-10% while net index short positions stood largely at 2.51 lacs which denotes that FII’s are also reaching their saturation level of selling & if they start even covering their short positions then an easy melt up in the broader markets could begin immediately.

FII’s were nominal sellers with net sell of Rs. 4,003.84 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 12,633.54 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 03^rd July 2026 at 2.51 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 9-10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well & possible bottom formation in the broader markets as well.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum to continue in the coming week as well few key major factors are likely to be considered. So, far we have positive data developments across the board which has been the reason for positive moves in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

• Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities to stabilize the Rupee it recovered towards 94.155 to give a decisive close at 95.212 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 92-93 in few weeks’ time frame following US-Iran-Israel trade deal.
• Dollar Index: DXY remains stable near 100.
• Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 70.17 $ per barrel which is now near the pre-war levels of February 2026 we now remain neutral here as of now.
• FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 03^rd July 2026 at 2.51 lacs net index shorts with net longs at 9-10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well.

As we move ahead for the fresh week Nifty has given highest closing in 11 weeks at 24270.85 which denotes bulls are back & bears are set back. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels very soon while crucial supports have shifted further higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 9-10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.51 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Bank Nifty gave an indecisive move last week where nothing clear is mentioned. On the upside it may try to hit 60000-61000 zone while on the downside 56800-57000 may act as immediate crucial support zone. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 30000 as of now.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 70.17 $ per barrel which is now near the pre-war levels of February 2026 we now remain neutral here as of now.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items, where most of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
• Dollar Index may remain stagnant at 98-100.
• Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 70.17 $ per barrel which is now near the pre-war levels of February 2026 we now remain neutral here as of now.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 9-10% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23800-24000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows: 

Domestic News:

1. PM Modi’s Schedule: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heading to Rajasthan to inaugurate key regional projects and is visiting Gujarat to provide a major boost to the semiconductor industry.
2. BrahMos & Defence on the Agenda: Maritime defence strategy and BrahMos supersonic cruise missile sales top PM Modi’s upcoming Jakarta agenda
3. Gujarat government to compensate farmers at 2x market value for land used in power transmission projects.
4. Gadkari unveils plan for 15% isobutanol blending in diesel.
5. Piyush Goyal urges states to identify imported goods that can be made competitively in India.
6. India builds ₹79,459 crore petrochemical giant in Rajasthan to cut import dependence.
7. Govt issues 10-point clarification, saying E20 petrol is backed by scientific studies and global experience, and is safe under approved norms
8. Oil Marketing Crunch: Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reportedly lost ₹18.9 per litre on diesel and ₹6 per litre on petrol during the first quarter.
9. BrahMos & Defence on the Agenda: Maritime defence strategy and BrahMos supersonic cruise missile sales top PM Modi’s upcoming Jakarta agenda
10. Adani Group Expansion: Adani and IRH have signed a massive ₹1.08 lakh crore project in Odisha. Additionally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved Adani’s major copper smelter in India as a listed brand.
11. Govt may revamp Gold Monetisation Scheme; jewellers likely to be added as collection partners — MC
12. India govt is investigating a data leak involving Tata Electronics after reports said some iPhone 18 Pro documents were exposed on the dark web.
13. Mumbai water tariffs may rise as the Rs 11,166 crore Manori desalination project advances, with the plant set to add 200 MLD initially and improve long-term water security.
14. Odisha Mega Project: Adani Group and International Resources Holding (IRH) have signed a major ₹1.08 lakh crore project in Odisha.
15. GoDaddy Warning to India: Domain registrar giant GoDaddy has warned Indian regulators that the country’s sweeping crackdown on fraudulent websites risks causing collateral damage to the broader architecture of the internet if not carefully targeted.

International news: 

1. Middle East Ceasefire Tension: Although the U.S. and Iran recently agreed to step back from tit-for-tat escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, regional stability remains highly fragile as humanitarian agencies demand independent press access to Gaza following strikes on journalists.
2. Global Market Anxieties: Wall Street and international tech sectors are experiencing sharp bouts of volatility amid growing investor anxiety over a potential artificial intelligence valuation bubble and high tech stock valuations.
3. Trump Financial Disclosures: A Reuters investigation into new financial disclosures reveals that Donald Trump accumulated over $1.4 billion from family-linked crypto ventures last year, drawing fresh scrutiny over administration policies boosting digital assets.
4. AI Rally Shifts: Asian tech stocks are cooling slightly after a massive quarterly run, with investors moving cash into secondary suppliers in Taiwan and Japan.
5. WhatsApp Username Scrutiny: Amid government scrutiny and regulatory discussions regarding digital safety, WhatsApp issued FAQs about its upcoming username feature. Concurrently, Zoho’s messaging app, Arattai, decided to disable its own username feature.
6. China is increasing Buddhism-related outreach across Asia to widen its regional influence, raising concerns in India and the U.S. amid rising tensions over the Dalai Lama succession.
7. US-Italy Relations: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has publicly called for a swift return to normalcy in diplomatic relations with the United States following a series of public rows with Donald Trump.
8. Immigration Policy Court Ruling: A US court has ruled that the Trump administration cannot hold migrants without bond hearings beyond a 90-day window.
9. Netanyahu’s office says Netanyahu and Trump held a phone call on Friday.
10. Middle East Ceasefire Tension: Although the U.S. and Iran recently agreed to step back from tit-for-tat escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, regional stability remains highly fragile as humanitarian agencies demand independent press access to Gaza following strikes on journalists.
11. Japan PM Visit: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi has arrived in India for an official visit and received a ceremonial welcome.
12. World Bank Alters Climate Targets: Following pushback from the United States administration, the World Bank Group indicated it will phase out its rigid minimum funding targets for climate-adaptation and emissions-reduction projects, which previously aimed for up to 45% of its total financing portfolio.

Nifty has given highest closing in 11 weeks at 24270.85 which denotes bulls are back & bears are set back. Nifty is highly likely to move ahead with positive bias towards 25000 kind of levels very soon while crucial supports have shifted further higher at 23800-24000 kind of levels while current market sentiment denotes limited downside with maximum upside deciding BUY ON DIPS strategy to follow-up. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 9-10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.51 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Bank Nifty gave an indecisive move last week where nothing clear is mentioned. On the upside it may try to hit 60000-61000 zone while on the downside 56800-57000 may act as immediate crucial support zone. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 30000 as of now.

In Sensex crucial supports remains higher at 75600-76000 range while immediate target could be towards 79000-80000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 26000 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24270.85
Nifty Potential Upside: 25000
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23800-24000

Sensex CMP: 77763.91
Sensex Potential Upside: 79000-80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 75600-76000

Bank Nifty CMP:  57938.50
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 60000-61000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56800-57000

Nifty Financial CMP: 26875.05
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 26000

Nifty IT CMP: 27439.40
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stocks on Radar:

Large Cap.:

1. Infosys (CMP 1047): This large-cap IT counter can be added here at CMP 1047 with strict SL placed at 980 for a potential upside towards 1100-1150 kind of levels in no time.
2. Canara Bank (CMP 127): This large-cap bank looks good to add here within the range of 125-129 with strict SL placed at 114 for an estimated possible upside towards 145-150 kind of levels.

About the Author:

Mr Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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