BULLS SET THEIR FINAL DESTINATION 25,000 FOR NIFTY | 58,000 FOR BANK NIFTY

It’s been a volatile week lately. Where initially bulls took up the charge & then bears came inn but overall, it’s been a muted week with Nifty showing nominal gain of 0.74% while Bank Nifty sets similar return for 0.82%. The indecisive move often makes investors / traders confused as to what’s ahead now? It is highly likely that irrespective of the Geopolitical issues Nifty is all set for a Final Destination towards 25000 & Bank Nifty may highly likely hit 58000 mark in the May series itself where investors may eye the destination with a medium risk appetite.

So far since the war between US-Iran-Israel begin not only put Global Equities at risk but also other asset classes. But since this war is not likely to end very soon & speculations & exchange of comments are highly likely to remain intact, we expect its major repercussions may now gradually come to affect least the Equity markets & a gradual up move may soon begin in the entire Indian Equity markets.

FII’s remained aggressive sellers across the board with massive sell off of almost Rs. 11,072.35 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 21,392.85 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 2.10 lacs contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

So, far we have so many mix data developments across the board which has been the reason for volatility in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee hit another All-time low of 95.466 creating panic across the sectors specially banking & financials sectors.
2. Dollar Index:This could remain on a neutral stance near to 96-98 zone.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.
4. FII’s Remained Seller:FII once again remained on the sell side & it doesn’t look like any kind of easing up as of now. Not a good sign.

Nifty though did not post any significant gains last week but still manages to make higher high higher low on weekly charts with higher closing at 24176.15 looks like it holds the higher ground & Bulls are highly likely to gain the momentum which could lead the Nifty towards 24900-25300 kind of levels while on the lower side 23800-24000 still looks like a crucial support levels. The support could come from Bank Nifty & IT Sector.

Meanwhile Bank Nifty may continue to find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 followed by 58000 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now cool off towards 93.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 95-98 kind of levels.

• Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 13-14% & a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 23800-24000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Suvendu Adhikari takes oath as Chief Minister of West Bengal as BJP forms historic first government in state.

2. India’s Health Ministry has put in place enhanced surveillance after hantavirus cases were detected on the cruise ship MV Hondius, with two Indian nationals onboard under observation but currently asymptomatic.

3. A growing share of Indian investors are shifting money abroad, seeking better diversification after a period of weaker relative returns and sustained foreign‑equity outflows that have pushed the rupee to record lows

4. Bihar Cabinet: Nitish Kumar’s son, Nishant, has officially taken charge as the Health Minister of Bihar.

5. Retail Expansion: Major retail chains like Reliance Retail and DMart are embarking on a massive store expansion spree, targeting growth in smaller Indian cities as consumer demand recovers.

6. Energy Costs: There are concerns regarding a potential fuel price hike, with India’s daily energy bill reportedly reaching ₹1,000 crore.

7. Naval Leadership: Vice Admiral Krishna Swaminathan has been named as the next Chief of Naval Staff.

8. Gold Reserves: In a major strategic move, the RBI has moved over 100 tonnes of gold back to Indian soil from the UK, bringing domestic holdings to 680 tonnes to safeguard against global sanctions.

9. Vodafone India: Vodafone is reportedly weighing a move to transfer a portion of its stake in its Indian unit as part of a broader restructuring strategy.

10. Semiconductor Push: The Union Cabinet has approved two new semiconductor units in Gujarat under the India Semiconductor Mission.

11. Titan Company: Reported a 35% year-on-year jump in net profit for Q4, reaching ₹1,179 crore

12. Forex Reserves: India’s forex reserves dropped by $7.79 billion, partly due to a decline in gold reserves.

13. Gold & Diamonds: While global natural diamond prices have plunged by 46%, the Indian market remains resilient due to wedding traditions. Meanwhile, gold prices continue to soar, impacting retail jewelry consumption.

14. EV Industry: Sona Comstar is strategically positioning itself to capture business from Chinese automakers who are establishing manufacturing plants in overseas markets..

International news:

1. China’s energy imports tumbled in April as flows through the Strait of Hormuz all but stopped, severely disrupting a key route for its crude oil and natural gas supplies.

2. Israel views a deal with Iran as unlikely and has urged the US that any return to war must involve 24-hour strikes on Iran’s full energy infrastructure, per Channel 12. Several Arab nations reportedly back targeting it too. Israel is now on maximum alert following recent Strait of Hormuz fire exchange.

3. AI & Chips: Qualcomm has introduced a new architecture and custom AI chips, directly challenging Nvidia’s dominance in the data center market.

4. US-Iran Tensions: The situation in the Middle East remains tense following US strikes on Iranian tankers and military targets. However, the Qatari PM suggests there is a “high probability” of a peace deal soon.

5. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Donald Trump has declared a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though drone strikes have been reported amid the proposal.

6. Global Trade: Trump has set a July 4 deadline for a trade deal with the European Union, threatening new tariffs if terms are not met.

7. China’s Trade Rebound: Chinese export growth has rebounded despite ongoing global conflicts, showing resilience in the country’s manufacturing sector. However, energy imports have plunged as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is choked by regional conflict.

8. FDA Leadership Shakeup: President Trump is reportedly planning to fire the head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) following controversies over drug approvals and the handling of the abortion pill mifepristone.

9. China’s Economy: New customs data shows that China’s coal imports fell by 14% in April, signaling a shift in energy demand or domestic production levels.

10. Health Warning: The WHO is tracking passengers of a cruise ship affected by Hantavirus, clarifying that while dangerous, it is distinct from the coronavirus.

11. Singapore Real Estate Boom: Commercial real estate in Singapore recorded a historic quarter, fueled by shifting investment patterns in the region.

12. India-EU FTA: The Commerce Ministry announced that the upcoming India-EU Free Trade Agreement will cover one-third of global trade, impacting nearly 2 billion people.

13. Nvidia Valuation: Nvidia’s market capitalization has officially surpassed the value of India’s entire equity market, highlighting the massive global scale of the AI chipmaker.

14. Apple Investment: Apple announced an investment of ₹100 crore to expand renewable energy projects in India. 

Nifty though did not post any significant gains last week but still manages to make higher high higher low on weekly charts with higher closing at 24176.15 looks like it holds the higher ground & Bulls are highly likely to gain the momentum which could lead the Nifty towards 24900-25300 kind of levels while on the lower side 23800-24000 still looks like a crucial support levels. The support could come from Bank Nifty & IT Sector.

Meanwhile Bank Nifty may continue to find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 followed by 58000 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Sensex may now find its crucial support at 76000 kind of levels while on the upside we may see a pull back towards 79000-80000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at lower levels of 25000-25200 kind of levels upside immediate target lies at 27000-27200 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026.

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24176.15
Nifty Potential Upside: 24900-25300
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23800-24000

Sensex CMP: 77328.19
Sensex Potential Upside: 79000-80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000

Bank Nifty CMP:  55310.55
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 56700-57000 / 58000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 54000-54600

Nifty Financial CMP: 26011.50
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000-27200
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25000-25200

Nifty IT CMP: 29394.20
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000-31000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• PI Industries (CMP 3111):T his large-cap counter looks good to add here at CMP 3111 with strict SL placed at 2900 for a potential upside towards 3400 in 2 months time frame.

• Ambuja Cement (CMP 444):This large cap cement counter looks good to add on decline towards 430-435 with strict SL placed at 400 & one can expect a potential upside towards 480-520 within next 3 months’ time frame.

• Info Edge (CMP 978): Another large-cap IT counter looks good to add on decline towards 960 with strict SL placed at 900 one can expect a potential upside towards 1100 in 2 months time frame. 

About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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