BEAR’S ARE MARGINALLY AWAY FROM EXHAUSTION: IS NIFTY OVERSTRECHED? STRONG CRUDE-OIL INDICATES CAUTION IN BANK NIFTY!

Bulls regained their consciousness last week to hit the high’s 23465.35 a spike of nearly 1000 points from the low’s as Bulls finally showed that they are not dead yet but Bears too not giving up their game as Brent crude is still not in a mood for cool off anytime soon. But immediate upside can only be seen if it moves above 120$ till then a cool off towards 95-97$ is expected & if not then a sideways move is imminent. Rupee so far has been on a continuous decline with All-time low of 94.988.

FII’s continuous sell off hit’s record high of massive Rs.1,11,377.35 cr. so far in the month of March 2026 & it still has one more day to go which remains biggest sell off after Covid’19 crash of March’20. Meanwhile DII’s now became biggest supporter of the entire move with massive buying of Rs.1,28,065.65 cr. till now. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts risen to 2.79 lac contracts initially it looked like they may come with positive bias but the substantial form may now looks like incremental shorts have been created which means more pain could be seen ahead on the path on Dalaal Street.

Precious metals once again shown strength as geopolitical issues rise again. Earlier Gold corrected nearly 24.67% from its recent highs of 180779 to hit a low of 136185 a biggest decline in a single week while it now remained inline with nominal gain last week while in Silver which made highs of 420048 & gave a vertical dive towards 225805 a single-handed fall of nearly 46.25% a biggest fall in the history within 2 weeks’ time frame. This sell off may now once again show further weakness towards 1.70 lacs in silver & 1.34 lacs in Gold on MCX within next few weeks.

As the brent crude oil hit 119.13$ per barrel & now gave a decisive close now at 105.32$ per barrel which has also lead the consistent fall in rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 to finally give a weekly close at 94.782.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

Previous week had initially shown upsurge on the entire markets but eventually put pressure on the entire markets which resembles that bears are still in charge on Dalaal Street. In the coming week ahead Nifty may initially show some sell off but as earlier anticipated it may show some signs of exhaustion near to 22300-22500 kind of levels while this time a potential upside comes then it could be towards the upper levels of 24300 without any hesitations. And the support could be initiated by the IT sector & some large-cap PSU counters followed by Reliance Industries Limited.

However, Bank Nifty shows the other way around as FII’s sold massive Rs. 31,831 cr. worth of equities into the financial sector. So, this may remain under pressure & some initial downside could be witnessed towards 51000 kind of levels further breakdown may take it towards 49000-50000 kind of levels while if positive momentum flow’s we do not see this getting through 56000 anytime soon as of now. PSU banks may continue to show some pressure this time as well while large-cap private banks may try to support the Index somehow.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support at within the range of 26000-28000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 32000-32800 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent Crude may formed double top at 119-120$ per barrel levels no major upside seen till it sustains below this. Meanwhile, initial support range remains stagnant at 90-100 kind of levels

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now head for triple digit in coming weeks ahead.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 100-101 kind of levels.

• rent Crude may formed double top at 119-120$ per barrel levels no major upside seen till it sustains below this. Meanwhile, initial support range remains stagnant at 90-100 kind of levels.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 13-15% & a recovery is possible towards 24%-27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 22300-22500 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. NSE announces Dated Brent Crude Oil futures contracts will start trading in commodity derivatives from April 13.

2. LICI’s CO receives ₹8,576 Cr tax demand + ₹1,754 Cr interest for FY24 from Income Tax Dept over bonus, reserve & Sec 80M disallowances; will appeal to CIT(A), no material operational impact

3. IOB receives ₹1,742.96 Cr income tax demand for AY25 from NFAC; plans to challenge the assessment order, expects no financial impact

4. Kotak Mahindra Bank states no material impact from alleged FD fraud linked to Panchkula Municipal Corp; examining as directed and fully cooperating with authorities.

5. RBI directs banks to cut dollar-rupee exposure to $100M max by April 10, as many currently hold larger positions.

6. Noida International Airport Inauguration: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to inaugurate Phase I of the Noida International Airport (Jewar). Comprehensive traffic advisories are in place for the Noida-Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressways, including a ban on heavy and medium goods vehicles until 11 PM.

7. NSE Index Rebalancing: The National Stock Exchange carried out its semi-annual index rejig. Bharti Airtel saw a significant weight increase (expecting inflows of $246 million), while HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries faced weight reductions.

8. The Indian Army signed an MoU with IIT Madras to accelerate indigenous defense technology development

9. Fuel Security in India: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated the government is working to prevent the West Asia conflict from burdening citizens. The Centre increased commercial LPG allocations to states by 20%.

10. Fuel Crisis: Reports of LPG shortages surfaced in parts of India (like Dehradun), though the government dismissed “lockdown” rumors and assured 60 days of fuel stock cove

11. SEBI announces Google will now label verified apps of registered trading and intermediary firms.

12. Bharat Dynamics to set up two new manufacturing facilities, eyeing ₹15,000 crore orders in FY 2026-27.

13. India’s Information Minister states Cabinet approved regional air connectivity scheme worth ₹28,840 crore.

14. Zerodha doubles select intraday F&O brokerage to ₹40 from April 1 due to SEBI’s 50% cash collateral mandate 

International news:

1. Russia’s envoy to Vienna-based international orgs told RIA Novosti that Iran might later permit IAEA inspectors into its facilities.

2. Russian Foreign Ministry states Russia is mediating to resolve the Iran crisis.

3. Iran-linked hackers breached FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal email, leaking old photos and emails online. The hack targeted his private account, not FBI systems, with non-classified data from years prior

4. Iranian missile hit Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia Friday, wounding 10+ U.S. servicemembers (2 seriously) and damaging U.S. refueling aircraft, per WSJ citing U.S./Saudi officials

5. Russia and India are ready to ramp up LNG supplies, with LPG deliveries to India also under discussion, per an oil and gas industry source cited by Network18.

6. The Iran war has semiconductor industry on high alert due to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG shutdown disrupting major global helium supply. Helium, a natural gas byproduct, is essential for chip manufacturing

7. Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East remain the primary global driver. Reports indicate Israel has targeted Iranian nuclear sites, while the US and Israel are reportedly coordinating on expanding operations against Tehran.

8. Nuclear Plant Strike: Iran reported a strike at the Bushehr nuclear plant, the third such incident in 10 days. The IAEA stated there was no radiation release

9. “Strait of Trump”: US President Donald Trump went viral for a slip-of-the-tongue where he referred to the Strait of Hormuz as the “Strait of Trump.”

10. pple & Siri Updates: Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering opening Siri to rival AI assistants in a future iOS update, a significant shift in its ecosystem strategy.

11. Huawei’s AI Milestone: Reuters reported that Huawei’s new AI chip (the 950PR), designed to compete with Nvidia in China, has received positive feedback from tech giants like ByteDance and Alibaba, who are now placing orders.

12. Russia’s Occupied Assets: Russia has begun auctioning off natural resource assets in occupied Ukrainian territories, including a gold deposit in Luhansk sold for approximately $9.7 million.

13. Ontario Budget: The 2026 Ontario budget was released on Friday, projecting a $13.8 billion deficit

14. Tiger Woods Arrested: Former world number one golfer Tiger Woods was arrested in Florida on Friday on a DUI charge after his vehicle rolled over. Investigators believe the impairment was related to medication rather than alcohol. 

Last week Nifty made low’s of 22471.25 to give a close at 22819.60. In the coming week ahead Nifty may initially show some sell off but as earlier anticipated it may show some signs of exhaustion near to 22300-22500 kind of levels while this time a potential upside comes then it could be towards the upper levels of 24300 without any hesitations. And the support could be initiated by the IT sector & some large-cap PSU counters followed by Reliance Industries Limited.

However, Bank Nifty shows the other way around as FII’s sold massive Rs. 31,831 cr. worth of equities into the financial sector. So, this may remain under pressure & some initial downside could be witnessed towards 51000 kind of levels further breakdown may take it towards 49000-50000 kind of levels while if positive momentum flow’s we do not see this getting through 56000 anytime soon as of now. PSU banks may continue to show some pressure this time as well while large-cap private banks may try to support the Index somehow.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support at within the range of 26000-28000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 32000-32800 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

Sensex may continue to find its crucial support levels at 72000 kind of levels in the coming week ahead while immediate hurdle may now remain at 77000-78000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels at 23000 while immediate hurdle lies at 26000-26500 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 31,002 cr. per month as on December 2025.

 Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  22819.60
Nifty Potential Upside: 24300
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 22300-22500

Sensex CMP: 73583.22
Sensex Potential Upside: 77000-78000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 72000

Bank Nifty CMP:  52274.60
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 56000
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside Target: 51300-52000 / 49000-50000 (As the case may be)

Nifty Financial CMP: 24373.20
Nifty Financial Immediate Hurdle: 26000-26500
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Target: 23000

Nifty IT CMP: 29541.65
 IT Immediate Target: 32000-32800
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-28000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Reliance Industries (CMP 1349): This large-cap giant looks good to add here at 1348 with strict SL placed at 1300 for an estimated possible upside towards 1500 in short run.

• HDFC Bank (CMP 756): This large-cap private sector bank looks good to add here for a possible reversal from CMP 756 with strict SL placed at 680 for a potential upside towards 855 in 3 months time frame.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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