NIFTY CONSOLIDATION NEARS COMPLETION; 24,800+ TARGET BANK NIFTY EYES THE 60,000 MARK IN THE SEPTEMBER SERIES

Broader markets remained within the tight consolidation zone last week wherein Nifty though broken the high’s of its subsequent week but failed to sustain the gains & remain within the range of 300 points while week. As Nifty gave a close at 24175.65 with a nominal loss of 0.31% while Bank Nifty closed with a nominal loss of 0.46% for the week while “Nifty IT” reverse back to upside & gave a decisive close at 31281.70 with net gain of 2.45% for the week. Brent crude oil on the other hand gave a move as earlier desired & hit low’s of 84.56 $ & completing our mentioned target of 86$ per barrel within a week itself we now remain neutral here.

The coming week & overall September series hide’s the desired positive momentum which everyone has been waiting for wherein Nifty may hear for 24800 while any close above could trigger a move towards 25300 in September series itself while holding the crucial support zones of 23900-24000 while in Bank Nifty immediate minor hurdle still remains at 58700 & any move above this could trigger a move towards 60000-61000 in September series itself.

FII’s have been very volatile since last 2 years where major selling has been done by them. In recent last 1 month time frame the FII’s has initiated their buy in Financials Services sector, Automobile Sector & IT Sector which denotes the possible short covering in the broader markets could be witnessed majorly by these sectors along with Consumer Services & Consumer Durables sector on the road. Here we can have a brief look on the major inflow & outflow sector wise:

For overall scenario to consider we have below mentioned factors which created havoc & high volatility into the broader markets with the US-Iran war escalating further. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: Rupee despite intervention of the RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities it continued to decline towards 96.655 previous to last week & created a panic in banking & financial sector but as earlier mentioned technically it has perfectly formed a double top formation near to 97 & a cool off towards 93-94 remains imminent in August series while so far it has hit 94.923 so far marginally away from our target.
2. Dollar Index: DXY followed our earlier mentioned & now settled down near to 98.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier mentioned hit 86$ we now remain neutral for the coming week ahead.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 9-10% while net shorts in index declined to 1.45 lacs initially but rise back to 2.03 lacs once again. So this part now remains a neutral once as of now.

India Vix hits 9.47 kind of levels 2 weeks back while it once again has risen towards 14.76  & as earlier mentioned we didn’t expected it to sustain anywhere above 15-16 hence a cool off towards 10-11 was mentioned & we achieved 10.50. We remain neutral for the coming week here FII’s net longs were between 7-8% while net shorts were at 2.71 lacs with possible saturation levels mentioned it cooled off with massive short covering where FII’s net longs now remained at 9-10% while net shorts in index declined to 2.03 lacs.

Nifty in the coming week ahead may head for 24800 kind of levels & any move above this could trigger a long desired move of 25300 while holding up the crucial support of 23900-24000 kind of levels in September series itself. Broader market moves may be supported by Bank Nifty & Reliance Industries.

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in September series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” may head for immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 29000-30000 this time.

Brent crude as earlier mentioned hit 86$ we now remain neutral for the coming week ahead.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

Domestic News:

1. Ola Electric bags ₹95.81 cr PLI-Auto incentive for third straight year.
2. PM Modi plans to attend EU summit in Brussels on Dec 17–18, Politico reports; visit not yet officially confirmed.
3. Govt expects 25,000 registrations by mid-October under Parivartan scheme to replace old trucks and buses in Delhi-NCR.
4. India’s forex reserves raised $12.42 billion in the week ended Aug 21 to a record $729.33 billion, RBI data shows.
5. Axis cades board approves acquisition of 90% stake in Cloud Wave Technologies for ~₹234 crore; deal to close by Sept 30, 2026.
6. CNG prices have been hiked by ₹3.89/kg in Delhi-NCR, driven by ongoing West Asia regional supply pressures.
7. Strong policy pushes for ethanol production have triggered a surge in maize prices, inadvertently pushing up egg prices.
8. Sugar availability is expected to improve following adjustments to quota switches, alongside shifts in import/export policies.
9. Tata Sons secured a 3-month extension for its Annual General Meeting (AGM) following quorum-related delays.
10. India has dispatched emergency relief flights carrying over 37 tonnes of aid supplies to Nepal, alongside NDRF deployment.
11. Gold prices dropped by approximately 1% following signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate adjustments, bringing 24K gold to around ₹1,56,780 per 10 grams.
12. Over 7 crore ITRs have been filed so far, with the Income Tax Department reminding non-audit taxpayers not to wait until the August 31 deadline.
13. India’s food regulator is proposing mandatory front-of-pack warning labels on packaged foods and beverages high in sugar, salt, and fat.
14. Milk prices in Mumbai saw an upward revision due to rising input and procurement costs.

International news: 

1. S. consumer brands (such as Nike and Starbucks) are experiencing declining market presence in China, while beverage trends in India show rising market share for spirits like vodka.
2. Asian markets and currency trading (including the Japanese Yen) are adjusting to global macro cues. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation remains sticky, signaling short-term rates could stay elevated.
3. Global luxury brands in China—including LVMH, Kering, and Hermès—reported double-digit sales drops. Spending by high-net-worth individuals has slowed following China’s aggressive tax push targeting offshore assets and cross-border investment gains.
4. Flash floods along the mountainous border region between Nepal and Tibet caused severe loss of life and heavy damage to regional infrastructure. Early estimates suggest rebuilding efforts could exceed $5 billion.
5. Commodity markets are tracking reports of US-Venezuela energy reserve discussions alongside ongoing geopolitical updates from the Middle East, influencing energy prices across Asian trade sessions.
6. Global crude oil prices are facing weekly declines following a shift in U.S. strategy toward economic sanctions on Iran, alongside a partial revenue-sharing framework between Iran and Oman regarding Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic.
7. S. diplomatic envoys continue discussions with both Hamas leadership and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in efforts to revive peace talks.

8. Trade friction has escalated with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, introducing fresh headwinds to North American trade relations.

9. S. Treasury policies are holding coupon auction sizes steady while Washington maintains strict economic sanctions on entities tied to Iran’s military apparatus.
10. Tensions remain high as Russian missile strikes recently damaged major industrial infrastructure in Ukraine, including the ArcelorMittal steel complex in Kryvyi Rih.
11. India and Canada aim to raise bilateral trade to CAD 70 billion by 2030, expanding cooperation in investment, finance, capital markets, critical minerals and CEPA.
12. Barclays & Indian Founders: Barclays is actively looking to deepen its business ties with India’s prominent billionaire founders.
13. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Washington has launched an intensive financial campaign targeting Iran’s remaining trade links, with the U.S. Treasury threatening secondary sanctions against any nation or bank continuing commercial ties with Tehran.
14. Venezuela Oil Talks: The U.S. administration is reportedly in advanced discussions with Venezuela to secure direct stakes in multiple major oil and gas fields
15. Global Soil Degradation Report: A United Nations report released at the COP17 desertification summit highlights that over half of the world’s soils are now in poor condition, intensifying risks to global food security.

Nifty in the coming week ahead may head for 24800 kind of levels & any move above this could trigger a long desired move of 25300 while holding up the crucial support of 23900-24000 kind of levels in September series itself. Broader market moves may be supported by Bank Nifty & Reliance Industries.

Bank Nifty crucial supports remain higher at 56000-56700 kind of levels while intermediate hurdle seen at 58700 any move above this could give us 60000-61000 kind of levels in September series itself. The support may come from large-cap Private & Public sector banks both.

• “Nifty IT” may head for immediate target of 33000 while crucial support still remains at 29000-30000 this time.
• In Sensex crucial supports now remain within range of 76000-76500 range while immediate target could be towards 80000-81000 kind of levels.
• Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 25600 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.
• As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
• The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24175.65
Nifty Potential Upside: 24800 / 25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23900-24200

Sensex CMP: 77264.51
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000-81000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76000-76500

Bank Nifty CMP:  57496.30
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 58700 / 60000-61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000-56700

Nifty Financial CMP: 26286.50
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25600

Nifty IT CMP: 31281.70
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 29000

About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

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