MARKETS GIVING LAST CHANCE TO ONBOARD THE SHIP BEFORE IT SAILS ABOVE 25000 MARK

Nifty now lies within the midst of Trump-Iran phobia to Crude Oil supply chain phobia where investors / traders remained stranded within the middle of the desert & thirst of Crude oil remained high. As the every country on the planet tries to sail through the “Strait of Hormouz” barely anyone surviving as of now. And it is not the containers that are only sinking but rather the investors portfolio’s that had been under major pressure lately.

It has been a volatile week when not only US-Iran issues remained uncertain but US Fed outcome & Indian elections were the main lime light. All these factors kept Nifty on a non-directional move.

FII’s now remained aggressive sellers across the board with massive sell off of almost Rs. 13,771.50 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 11,585.20 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 1.84 lacs contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

So, far we have so many mix data developments across the board which has been the reason for volatility in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee:Rupee hit another All-time low of 95.337 creating panic across the sectors specially banking & financials sectors.
2. Dollar Index:This could remain on a neutral stance near to 98 zone.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.
4. FII’s Remained Seller: FII once again remained on the sell side & it doesn’t look like any kind of easing up as of now. Not a good sign.

Despite some significant red signals Nifty still managed to hold on to the levels of 24800 & gave a decisive close near to 24000 at 23997.55. In the coming week ahead Nifty is all set to rebound towards possible highs of 24600 / 24900-25300 kind of levels as with all the red signals broader markets continuously shown strength & hence possibly can show support at 23800 kinds of levels & on breach of this 23400-23500 remains a crucial support level. The support could come from Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Meanwhile with weakening rupee & rising crude oil Bank Nifty may find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 kind of levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now cool off towards 93.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 95-98 kind of levels.

• Brent crude oil hit another All-time high of 120.52$ per barrel & cooled off towards 114.37$. In the coming months we expect this to cool off towards 80-90$ somewhere as UAE exited the OPEC & OPEC+.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 20-21% & a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 23400-23500 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. India is negotiating access to Anthropic’s advanced Mythos AI model for its companies. Discussions involve the US administration and Anthropic officials. Meanwhile, security agencies are pushing to strengthen protections for critical systems.

2. India’s workforce health is deteriorating faster than most people realise, with a structural shift toward metabolic and chronic disease risk among working‑age Indians.

3. Fuel Price Stability: The government has confirmed there are no plans to hike petrol and diesel prices from May 1, despite global crude oil crossing $110 amid the ongoing West Asia conflict

4. Crude Oil Surge: Oil prices remain a concern, with WTI Crude reclaiming the $100/bbl level and Brent Crude hovering around $110. This is driven by ongoing UAE-OPEC developments and persistent US-Iran tensions

5. HCLTech is Official Digital Experience Partner for DP World Tour. This partnership aims to enhance fan engagement and capture valuable data.

6. Jubilant FoodWorks Limited has issued a notice to shareholders regarding the Second 100 Days Campaign ‘Saksham Niveshak’launched by IEPFA from April 01, 2026 to July 09, 2026, targeting unpaid/unclaimed dividends.

7. Reliable Data Services Limited has strategically expanded into government supply business with a new contract to supply white goods to Bihar Medical Services and Infrastructure Corporation Limited

8. Larsen &Toubro has formalized the divestment of its complete shareholding in L&T Metro Rail (Hyderabad) Limited through a share purchase agreement worth ₹1,461.47 crore with Hyderabad Metro Rail Limited

9. LIC Buys More HCL Tech Shares, Lifts Stake to 7.01%

10. Bandhan Bank reported strong Q4FY26 results with PAT up 68% YoY to ₹534 crore, revenue at ₹5,428 crore, GNPA improved to 3.27%, NNPA at 0.97%

11. Vedanta will demerge the company into 5 seperate entities effective on May 1.

12. Kotak Mahindra Bank confirmed payment of principal and interest to the bondholders

International news:

1. The UAE will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1 after six decades

2. Iran FM Abbas Araghchi heads to Moscow after brief Pakistan pitstop, peace talks stalled

3. Sun Pharma set to acquire Organon for $12.5 bn, its biggest till date, acquisition to be completed by early 2027.

4. Meta’s Green Push: Meta has partnered with space startup Overview Energy to secure solar power for its data centers.

5. Startup Ecosystem: Anthropic Mythos early users are flagging security vulnerabilities (“kill zones”) as technical attacks increase in India.

6. Geopolitics: Iran is reportedly seeking “credible guarantees”in the Gulf while turning toward Russia as talks with the US remain stalled.

7. India-New Zealand FTA: India has officially sealed a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand, securing a $20 billion investment pledge and duty-free access for various Indian goods.

8. South Korean Resilience: Despite regional geopolitical risks, South Korean exports have continued to surge, particularly in the tech and automotive sectors.

9. White House Events: King Charles III and Queen Camilla met with Donald Trump at the White House earlier today.

10. Google’s Pentagon AI Deal: Alphabet’s Google has reportedly signed a classified deal with the U.S. Department of Defense to utilize its AI models for defense-related work.

11. China Blocks Meta Acquisition: In a significant antitrust move, China has blocked Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of the AI startup Manus.

12. CK Hutchison Port Sale: China Merchants has entered talks regarding the sale of ports owned by CK Hutchison, a major development in Asian logistics and infrastructure.

 Despite some significant red signals Nifty still managed to hold on to the levels of 24800 & gave a decisive close near to 24000 at 23997.55. In the coming week ahead Nifty is all set to rebound towards possible highs of 24600 / 24900-25300 kind of levels as with all the red signals broader markets continuously shown strength & hence possibly can show support at 23800 kinds of levels & on breach of this 23400-23500 remains a crucial support level. The support could come from Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Meanwhile with weakening rupee & rising crude oil Bank Nifty may find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 kind of levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Sensex may find its crucial support within crucial support levels of 74700-75000 kind of levels while on the upside we may see a pull back towards 78000-79000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at lower levels of 25200-25700 kind of levels upside immediate target lies at 26500-26700 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026.

 Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23997.55
Nifty Potential Upside / Hurdle: 24600 / 24900-25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 24800 / 23400-23500 (As the case may be)

Sensex CMP: 76913.50
Sensex Potential Upside / Hurdle: 78000-79000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 74700-75000

Bank Nifty CMP:  54863.35
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 56700-57000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 54000-54600

Nifty Financial CMP: 25657.35
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 26500-26700
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25200-25700

Nifty IT CMP: 29353.90
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000-31000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Ambuja Cement (CMP 444): This large cap cement counter looks good to add on decline towards 430-435 with strict SL placed at 400 & one can expect a potential upside towards 480-520 within next 3 months’ time frame.

• Info Edge (CMP 973): Another large-cap IT counter looks good to add on decline towards 960 with strict SL placed at 900 one can expect a potential upside towards 1100 in 2 months time frame.

 About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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