NIFTY HIT’S ANOTHER ATH AT 23000
LAST BULL STANDING COULD GET THE BIGGEST HIT
Dated: 25/05/2024
Started with muted start bulls roared the week & ended up on a strong nod with a top notch of hitting another ATH. India Vix too continued to play the vital role in ongoing volatility as it tested the highs of 24.215 in the previous week & is expected to hit 27-28 in the last week of the month.
It’s another ATH for Nifty with another millstone on the cards of hitting 23000 magnificent mark with a style this time. Last week Nifty made another ATH & made high’s of 23026.40 to give a close at 22957.10. Nifty rose nearly 454.25 points i.e. 2.01% & made another bullish bar on the Weekly charts. All these happened & here we are with last week of May series where probability of India Vix hitting 27-28 is very high if not then it is highly likely to hit the target by 3rd of June 2024 i.e. just before the Lok Sabha Election results announcement..
Nifty is likely to face hurdle at 23000-23200 kind of levels in the coming week as in case of any reversal (if happens) Nifty is all set to hit 22500 & any breach below this could give us 22000 on a positional basis. As the election results are coming ahead volatility is continue to remain high with sudden spikes & draw downs in the Nifty & Sensex. While major sectoral rotation towards Nifty IT is expected soon to happen. Nifty IT is expected to hit 38000 mark from here onwards with major heavy weights like TCS, Infosys, Wipro etc is likely to outperform the broader markets.
As General Lok Sabha Elections Phase 5 have been completed & for the Phase 6 voting will start from 25th of May 2024. India Vix is expected to remain high & may test 27-28 towards the end of May 2024 series & Nifty may continue to feel the pressure on every upside possible here onwards in remaining parts of the May series.
Voting in India for the General Lok Sabha Election has already began from 19th April 2024 which will be held in 7 phases from 19th April 2024 to 01st June 2024 while the counting starts from 4th June 2024 onwards. The details of the election dates in phased manner are as below:
- Phase 1: 19th April
- Phase 2: 26th April
- Phase 3: 7th May
- Phase 4: 13th May
- Phase 5: 20th May
- Phase 6: 25th May
- Phase 7: 1st June
Countdown to begin from 4th June 2024.
The GST data shows positive development in the Indian economy on the domestic levels. As this time India has for the first time tested a magnificent level of GST collection of Rs.2, 10,267 cr. in the month of April 2024 as compared to its YoY collection of April 2023 as Rs. 1,87,000 cr. After taking into account all the GST refunds, April 2024 net GST revenue works out to Rs.1.92 lakh crore. It indicates an impressive 15.5% Y-o-Y growth compared to last year. It indicates domestic transactions were up 13.4% and imports were up 8.3% with Top States contributing:
- Maharashtra- 37,671 crore
- Karnataka- 15,978 crore
- Gujarat- 13,301 crore
However, we have been continuously been bullish on two sector specifically in all these volatilities i.e. Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT. In Nifty FMCG we expect it to test 57000-60000 mark till the end of May series or till the midst of June series & heavy weights like Hindustan Unilever Limited & ITC Limited are highly likely to outperform. On the other hand in Nifty IT we have been consistently been bullish with immediate target remains at 38000 mark with immediate crucial support existing at 31200-32900 kind of levels. Meanwhile the heavy weights here like TCS, Infosys & Wipro are highly likely to outperform the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead.
As election voting has finally began from 19th April 2024 & high volatility is continue to kill the trades/ investors with both sides move. Watching out the position sizing remains a crucial play here.
As we move ahead the analysis doesn’t get competed unless we talk about the FII’s & DII’s in the India domestic markets. In the FY 2023-24 FII’s the FII’s remained net seller with net outflow of Rs.14,578.08 Cr. while in the new FY 2024-25 FII’s were net seller with net outflow of Rs.35,692.19 cr. & in the last week they were net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 1,165.54 cr.. So far FII’s in the new FY 2024-25 have almost sold a whopping Rs.70, 000 cr. worth of Equities. Meanwhile the DII’s were net buyer’s with whopping net Inflow of Rs.2,09,884.83 cr. while so far in FY 2024-25 they are net buyer’s with net inflow of almost Rs.75,000 cr. with net inflow of Rs. 6,977.71 cr. last week.
Nifty last week made a low of 22404.55 to give a close at 22957.10 for the week with net gain of 454.25 points i.e. 2.01% for the week. India Vix so far has tested high’s of 24.235 almost for the week (we have already mentioned it to test 17-18 since subdued levels of 9.85) it is likely to remain highly volatile & has high probability that we can get to see it testing 27-28 till the end of May series. However, as we move ahead with last week of the May series & just ahead of Voting results Nifty is highly likely to face its immediate hurdle at 23100-23200 range meanwhile downward target remains at 22500 & any breach below this could give us 22000 kind of levels. However, the focus shall continue to remain on Nifty FMCG sector & Nifty IT sector with bullish bias & could change the course of action from hereonwards.
Sensex last week made low of 73762.37 to give a close at 75410.39 with net gain of 1404.45 points i.e. net gain of 1.89% for the week. India Vix so far has tested high’s of 24.235 almost for the week (we have already mentioned it to test 17-18 since subdued levels of 9.85) it is likely to remain highly volatile & has high probability that we can get to see it testing 27-28 till the end of May series. Sensex is likely to face immediate hurdle at 76000-77000 levels while immediate downside target remains at 73000 kind of levels. However, the focus shall continue to remain on Nifty FMCG sector & Nifty IT sector with bullish bias & could change the course of action from hereonwards.
Meanwhile Bank Nifty is likely to face its immediate hurdle at 49000-50000 mark which could give us some selling pressure while immediate downside target of 47000-46000 mark. Meanwhile private heavy weight banks like HDFC Bank may continue to support Bank Nifty.
In Nifty Financial Services 22500 may now at as immediate hurdle & immediate downside target remains at 20500 kind of levels.
In Nifty IT we continue to remain highly bullish with immediate target still remains at 38000 mark with immediate crucial support continue to remain at 31200-32900 kind of levels. Any dips in this sector still remains a good buying opportunity. In fact this whole coming FY 2024-25 may remain bullish for this entire sector. Moreover these dips remain an excellent opportunity to add longs into quality heavy weight IT stocks mainly; Infosys, TCS, Wipro etc.
Till March 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 14.39cr. which not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
In the FY 2023-24 so far the Direct Tax collection has amounting to whopping Rs. 18, 90,259 cr. has seen the surge of nearly 19.88% as compared to its previous year collection of Rs. 15,76,776 cr. .
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 22957.10
Nifty Crucial Hurdle: 23100-23200
Nifty Crucial Support / Estimated Downside: 22500 / 22000 (As the case may be)
SENSEX CMP: 75410.39
Sensex Crucial Hurdle: 76000-77000
Sensex Crucial Support / Estimated Downside: 73000
Bank Nifty CMP: 48971.65
Bank Nifty Crucial Hurdle: 49000-50000
Bank Nifty Crucial Support / Estimated Downside: 47000 / 46000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 21852.30
Nifty Financial Crucial Hurdle: 22500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support / Estimated Downside: 20500
Nifty IT CMP: 33824.30
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 38000 / 40000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 31200-32900
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
- Titan (CMP 3412): This large cap counter has been on our radar since subdued level of 3250 & can be added more at current levels of 3412 with strict SL placed at 3200 for an estimated possible target of 3600-3700.
- Jio Financials (CMP 366): This counter has shown 100% growth since 200 levels & now it has corrected 15% almost. Looks like good accumulation may come here somewhere & can be accumulated here at 366 with strict SL placed at 325 for an estimated possible target of 457 in 3 month’s time frame.
- Infosys (CMP 1465): This large cap IT has shown some sharp pull back lately with Nifty IT being expected to find its crucial support reversal zone soon this heavy weight giant of IT sector looks good to accumulate here at CMP 1465 with strict SL placed at 1300 for an estimated possible target of 1700-1850 within next 4-6 months time frame.
- Wipro (CMP 463): Another large-cap IT counter looks like available on attractive price at CMP 463 & can be added on dips towards 430 with strict SL placed at 400 expect a price target of 540-620 within a year time frame.
- TCS (CMP 3849): This counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 3849 with SL placed at 3740 for an estimated possible target of 4200 till June series.
- BSE (CMP 2726): The Bombay Stock Exchange has declined lately due to some news of charges levied by SEBI. But it has absorbed the shock & is ready for another jump. One can accumulate here at CMP 2726 with strict SL placed at 2541 for a estimated possible target of 3200-3600 within 6 months time frame.
- Hindustan Unilever Limited (CMP 2366): As Nifty is expected to remain volatile in the upcoming weeks ahead it is expected a safe haven for FMCG counters. This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 2217. One can still accumulate here at CMP 2366 with small SL formation at 2000 one can keep an eye for estimated possible target of 2700 within 3 months time frame.
Mid- Caps:
- M&M Finance (CMP 271): This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of & can be added more at current levels of 271 with stict SL placed at 250 for an estimated target of 300.
- IndiaMart (CMP 2560): This counter has been on sideways since long if it holds the levels of 2300 this could hit 3600 within 6 months time frame from CMP 2560.
- KRBL (CMP 280): This rice stock has been on correction mode since last few months due to el-nino news lately but looks like can form some bottom here somewhere & can be accumulated here at CMP 280 with SL placed at 240 for an estimated possible target of 355 within few months.
- PVR (CMP 1339): PVR has shown some improvement in its recent results announced. It has already discounted all the loss in the recent quarters. Looks good to accumulate here at CMP 1339 with strict SL placed at 1200 for an estimated possible target of 1550-1600 in 3 months time frame.
- Bata India (CMP 1346): This counter has been on the correction mode since long but looks like can bottom out one can accumulate here at CMP 1346 with strict SL placed at 1290 & can look for an estimated possible target of 1600-1700 within 6 months time frame.
- Campus Active Wear (CMP 256): This mid-cap counter is poised for upside with strict SL place at 200 one can keep target of 300-376 within a year time frame & can be accumulated at CMP 256.
Small / Micro Caps:
- Sadhana Nitrochem (CMP 68): This small cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 68 with strict SL placed at 60 for an estimated possible target of 90
- Apex (CMP 216): This small cap counter can be accumulated here at CMP 216 with strict SL placed at 180 for an estimated possible target placed at 299
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 9+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contactatvgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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