24,000 REMAINS NIFTY’S DEFINING BREAKOUT ZONE BANK NIFTY CONTINUES TO TARGET 60,000

After US-Iran announced “We had a deal” US-Iran tensions re-escalated but there is hardly any effect seen on oil so far. Brent crude oil hit almost the lower end of 70-80$ by making a low of 71.36$ per barrel last week to give a decisive close at 73.40$. A stable oil indicates a stable Banking & financials sector if this sector remains stable, we may have a stable broader market in the coming week ahead. Nifty so far failed to sustain above 24200 but gave a decisive close above 24000 which resembles strength still lies inside.

As FII’s got tax exemptions from India government for investment in G-sec securities Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pumped roughly $1.9 billion into Indian government bonds in June, marking the highest foreign debt inflows in 16 months. This helped the stability of Rupee which was the main objective behind the provided tax relief. If this inflow continues in coming weeks / months then we may continue to see the recovery in Rupee towards 92-93 kind of levels which remains a positive note for banking & financial sectors.

Nifty after nearly wait of 7-8 long weeks has finally shown strength for a positive move ahead. Indices like Nifty & Bank Nifty gave an indecisive close though a positive one but a nominal gain of 0.18% & 0.85% was seen last week. While India Vix gave a decisive close at 13.

FII’s were nominal sellers with net sell of Rs. 2,077.69 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 11,100.94 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 25^th June 2026 at 2.24 lacs net index shorts with net longs improved to 14-15% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well & possible bottom formation in the broader markets as well.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum few key major factors are likely to be considered & are likely to top out soon. So, far we have positive data developments across the board which has been the reason for positive moves in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities to stabilize the Rupee it re covered towards 94.155 to give a decisive close at 94.40 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 92-93 in few weeks’ time frame following US-Iran-Israel trade deal.
2. Dollar Index: In DXY we now have neutral stance.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 71.86$ per barrel we now remain neutral here as of now.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 25^th June 2026 at 2.24 lacs net index shorts with net longs improved to 14-15% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well.

As we head into the monthly expiry of June series next week it has been a highly sophisticated month where broadly everyone remained stunned by both sides moves but eventually bulls so far looks like are wining with a mild positive close on Monthly charts. Nifty highly likely to form a crucial support within our pre-defined range of 23500-23650 while on the upside any close on or above 24200 would define the further move towards 25000 in coming month ahead. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 14-15% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.24 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Bank Nifty may show a possible upmove towards 60000 kind of levels following recovery in rupee with crucial supports pertaining at 56000 kind of levels. The support may now come from Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 31000-32000 as of now.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 71.86$ per barrel we now remain neutral here as of now.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
• Dollar Index cool off towards 97-98.
• Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards the lower end of 70-80$ by making a recent low of 71.86$ per barrel we now remain neutral here as of now.

On the other side FII’s net longs are now near to 14-15% & a recovery is possible towards 17%, followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets, witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. India won’t sign a US trade deal unless it gets a competitive edge, says Piyush Goyal. He said India will wait for legal safeguards and tools from Washington that give it advantages over rival economies, prioritizing favourable terms over a speedy agreement.
2. Indian drugmakers Biocon Limited, Zydus Lifesciences Limited, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited are preparing to enter the biosimilar market for Keytruda, anticipating the blockbuster cancer drug’s patent expiry in major markets, which could open a significant opportunity in a product that generated $31.7 billion in global sales in 2025.
3. India’s Trade Minister is visiting the United Kingdom from June 25-27 ahead of the implementation of the India-UK trade agreement, with discussions expected to focus on operationalizing the pact and strengthening bilateral trade and investment ties.
4. Shapoorji Pallonji Group is reportedly seeking a fresh extension on its bond repayments, as refinancing discussions continue
5. Nagesh Kumar said the Reserve Bank of India may revise its FY27 growth forecast to above 7%, citing easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia
6. A surge in AI semiconductor optimism, driven by strong outlooks from Micron Technology and Qualcomm Incorporated, has contributed to a $400 billion rally in AI-related chip stocks.
7. The Reserve Bank of India has allowed Indian banks to extend loans against overseas foreign currency deposits
8. India is close to finalizing a government incentive scheme for processing critical battery minerals, according to the Mines Secretary.
9. A potential 5-10% decline in basmati rice prices is being indicated due to concerns that a Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact export logistics and demand flows
10. Tata Motors has secured over 3,400 electric commercial vehicle orders across SCVs, trucks, and buses, to be deployed in logistics, FMCG, mining, and public transport sectors.

International news:

1. Canada’s international student arrivals have plunged about 60%, Prime Minister Mark Carney said. Indian students—who were 51.6% of foreign students in 2023—now make up just 8.1%, reflecting tighter immigration and student‑visa rules.
2. France’s extreme heatwave has triggered panic buying of fans and air conditioners, with some stores reportedly seeing fights. The rush should lift near-term sales of cooling appliances while also pushing up electricity demand.
3. Delhi’s draft EV policy could make 95% of new vehicle registrations electric by 2027, which is a strong boost for the EV ecosystem. At the same time, it may pressure the broader auto industry, especially petrol two-wheelers, while giving hybrids some relief through road tax concessions.
4. Apple CEO Tim Cook said memory and storage costs have risen so sharply that price hikes are now unavoidable. The move reflects tight chip supply and strong AI-driven demand pushing up component inflation.
5. Taiwan’s retail margin debt has hit a record NT$600 billion, more than doubling in a year and surpassing Dot-com era levels. The surge points to rising speculation and higher leverage in the market.
6. Russia’s oil exports from its western ports are expected to reach a record 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in June.
7. The U.S. government has proposed a sharp increase in naturalization fees, including a roughly 75% hike in citizenship application charges and the removal of several fee waivers, potentially raising the cost burden for thousands of Indian green card holders seeking U.S. citizenship.
8. Oman has announced a temporary maritime corridor for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with ships required to coordinate with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and Omani authorities using designated navigation coordinates, aiming to ensure safer and more efficient passage amid heightened regional tensions.
9. The US FDA has approached Indian drug manufacturers to help address shortages of the critical cancer drug Ifosfamide – Benefit for CIPLA, ZYDUS, GLENMARK.
10. S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to visit India for bilateral trade agreement discussions

Nifty as we head into the monthly expiry of June series next week it has been a highly sophisticated month where broadly everyone remained stunned by both sides moves but eventually bulls so far looks like are wining with a mild positive close on Monthly charts. Nifty highly likely to form a crucial support within our pre-defined range of 23500-23650 while on the upside any close on or above 24200 would define the further move towards 25000 in coming month ahead. FII’s net index longs now remain well within the range of 14-15% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remains @2.24 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs) indicating possible more short covering in the coming week ahead. This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector.

Bank Nifty may show a possible upmove towards 60000 kind of levels following recovery in rupee with crucial supports pertaining at 56000 kind of levels. The support may now come from Private & Public sector banks both.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while an upmove could be at 31000-32000 as of now.

In Sensex crucial supports have shifted higher at 75000-76000 range while immediate target could be towards 79000-80000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 26000 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 28000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24056
Nifty Potential Upside: 24200 / 24600 / 25000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23500-23650

Sensex CMP: 77100.47
Sensex Potential Upside: 79000-80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 75000-76000

Bank Nifty CMP:  58177.05
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 60000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 56000

Nifty Financial CMP: 26770.55
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 26000

Nifty IT CMP: 27426.85
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 31000-32000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000 

Stocks on Radar:

Large Cap.:

1. Canara Bank (CMP 129): This large-cap bank looks good to add here within the range of 125-129 with strict SL placed at 114 for an estimated possible upside towards 145-150 kind of levels.
2. IRCTC (CMP514 ): Another large-cap counter trailing on oversold territory looks good to add here at CMP 514  with strict SL placed at 479 one can expect a potential upside towards 600 within a month time frame,

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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