Dated: 05/07/2025
A healthy consolidation means healthy moves ahead is in the pipeline. As we enter into a new week Nifty last week purely remained into a consolidation zone where Nifty didn’t bothered to move in a uni-directional manner but with nominal intraday volatilities it declined with mere 0.68% in whole week though broader markets witnessed much deeper correction but the overall move merely lead to a consolidative move with no clear indication.
However, in the coming week ahead Nifty is highly likely to follow the positive momentum with consolidation on its path. If the consolidation went on like this for one more week then the second half of July series may not stop near to 26000-26250 kind of levels but a flow like this could take Nifty towards 27000 kinds of levels.
As far as other major factors are concerned like currencies / metals / crude oil etc we had specifically mentioned that there will be minimal effect on the domestic Equity markets despite the ongoing global war escalations. The major effect may only come if Crude Oil surpassed 80$ per barrel which worked perfectly & our downward target of 70$ per barrel also got completed with low’s near to 65.93$ per barrel followed by India Vix which hit low’s of 12.19 we still continue it to hit 11 which is continuously cooling down since last 2 months from 22 to so far 13.60 has came which could eventually result in rise in Equity markets.
Dollar Index on the other hand continued to decline towards the lower levels of last 3 years testing low’s of 96.38 to give a close at 96.98 closed marginally below 97 (Big Positive). This resulted in decline in USDINR (Increase in Rupee) towards the low’s of 85.183 to give a decisive close at 85.497 which is soon is expected to hit 84 in next 2 weeks time frame (Another Big Positive thing). Meanwhile metals like Gold & Silver stayed remained stable on higher levels (Nor negative nor positive) but as they are not going further high resulted in a stable scenario for Equities.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 25662.40 in June 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 18% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q4 GDP of 7.40%. However, we do not expect Nifty to further breaking any more below 24900-25160 levels while major upside can be seen once the upper range of 25900-26170 could be seen in the coming week series but the road to this may slow & gradual as India Vix may now cool off towards lower levels of 11 from 12.19 currently.
As earlier anticipated along the Indices broader markets have shown tremendous recovery lately with the portfolio’s finally turning green (Large Cap’s) from their originally stuck prices. FII’s too turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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Rupee recovered one again shown recovery towards 85.183 from its recent high’s of 86.916.
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled marginally below 97 at 96.98
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 68.51$ per barrel.
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
On the other side FII’s net longs after its recent low’s of 20-22% it headed 34-36% which may again increase towards 45% almost & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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Govt nod expected soon for compensation for losses incurred by OMC’S accruing to around rupees 33000 cr
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Meta mandates SEBI verification for investment ads As part of updated terms of service announced on June 26, Meta—parent of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger—said all advertisers running investment ads in India, including global campaigns aimed at Indian audiences, must verify the person or entity benefiting from and paying for the AD by submitting valid SEBI registration details
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India PMI MFG actual: 58.4 vs 58.4 previous
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GST collections drop below ₹2 lakh crore June collections estimated at ₹1.85 lakh crore, up 6.2% year-on-year
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BEML: Indian army has released a RFI for the procurement approximately quantity 400 HMRV and associated equipment under make in India program
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Mobikwik to enter stock broking one Mobikwik SEBI has issued the certificate of registration to operate as “stock broking private (MSBPL), a unit of the co
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Rupee recovered one again shown recovery towards 85.183 from its recent high’s of 86.916.
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled marginally below 97 at 96.98
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 68.51$ per barrel.
International news:
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China will start imposing taxes on stainless steel goods this Tuesday
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US administration was still considering imposing tariff on critical sectors as tariff deadline approaches || US narrows trade focus to secure deals before Donald Trump’s tariff deadline
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USA federal debt to GDP ratio:
1960: 52.71%
1980: 34.61%
2000: 57.26%
Now: 123.06%
Trump:
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Going to start sending letters starting Friday on tariffs
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10 to 12 countries will get letter today
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Will range in value from 60%, 70% tariffs to 10%, 20%
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled marginally below 97 at 96.98
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 68.51$ per barrel.
In the institutional segment the FII’s once again turned net seller with net outflow of Rs. 6,604.06 cr. & the DII’s consistently remained massive net buyer with net inflow of Rs. 7,609.42 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made another high’s of 25662.40 & closed at 25461 with net loss of 0.68% for the week. As the Nifty remained into steep consolidation mode there was no major movement seen in the index where nor bulls nor bears won. In the coming weeks ahead if the current consolidation continues even in the second week of July series then the second half of July series Nifty may not only stop at 25900-26170 kind of levels but may even surpass these levels to hit another ATH towards 27000 till the end of July series while on the lower levels crucial support still remains within our pre-defined levels of 24900-25160 kind of levels. This time major Key sectors could be from IT & PSU Sectors followed by few selected heavy weights like Reliance Industries etc.
Sensex made high last week at 84084.88 to give a close at 83432.89 with net loss of 0.74%. In the coming week ahead the index may continue to move with positive bias with consolidation on its way. However if in the coming weeks ahead if the current consolidation continues even in the second week of July series then the second half of July series Nifty may not only stop at 86000 but a move towards 87000-88000 could be imminent. However the crucial supports still remains within our pre-defined levels of 81000-82000 kind of levels. This time major Key sectors could be from IT & PSU Sectors followed by few selected heavy weights like Reliance Industries etc.
The Bank Nifty so far has almost tested near our levels of 58000 making high’s of 57628.40. We now remain neutral in this counter where major hurdle now remains at 58000 while crucial support remains at 55000 kinds of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may continue to have targets of 28000-28200 while crucial supports now lie at 26500 kinds of levels.
In “Nifty IT” as expected 40000 almost has been achieved we remain bullish for 41000 in July series now while crucial supports have shifted higher at 37500 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25461
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25900-26170 / 27000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Support: 24900-25160
Sensex CMP: 83432.89
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 86000 / 87000-88000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Support: 81000-82000
Bank Nifty CMP: 57031.90
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 58000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 55000
Nifty Financial CMP: 26866.30
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000-28200
Nifty Financial Immediate Support: 26000-26500
Nifty IT CMP: 39166.55
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 41000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 37500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Delhivery (CMP 390): This counter looks for a possible breakout above 400 with strict SL placed at 360 one can expect a potential upside towards 480 in 3 months time frame.
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Tata Tech (CMP 708): As India-Russia head for Make in India Rafale jets this company is get to engage in this deal & is likely to get benefitted the most. One can add here at CMP 708 with strict SL placed at 690 one can expect a potential upside towards 881 in no time
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Power Grid (CMP 294): This another large-cp PSU counter looks good to add here at CMP 294 for a potential upside towards 340 with strict SL placed at 280.
Mid-Caps:
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PVR Inox (CMP 977): Few blockbuster movies are on the line which makes this counter interesting & can be accumulated at CMP 977 with strict SL placed at 900 one can expect a potential upside towards 1200 in 2months time frame.
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ABFRL (CMP 78): This counter looks bullish on technical charts for a bullish reversal pattern from CMP 78 with strict SL placed at 70 one can expect a potential upside towards 90.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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