Dated: 07/06/2025
Nifty dared to come out of the long ongoing consolidation with RBI’s push with the bold measure by massive 50bps repo rate cut followed by 100bps CRR cut to infuse further liquidity to the banks boosts the sentiment & Nifty somehow managed to give a close above 25000 marginally but yet formed Bullish candle on Weekly charts indicating the bullish trend to continue in the coming week as well while bears may still be waiting on the sideways for their day’s to come but everyone knows its now “Bull’s Day Out” on Dalaal Street.
It has been a tiring week where initially it seems like bears may come out of their caves but as the RBI’s governor came the bull’s regained the entire control on the Dalaal Street & took the Nifty above 25000 with strong closing but this may not be over yet as in the coming week as well Nifty is likely to continue to the bullish momentum with initial targets toward 25500-25600 kind of levels while on the downside immediate crucial support still remains at 24400-24600 range. Major bearishness can only be witnessed if these levels on the downside gets broken till then it’s a “Bull’s Day Out” on Dalaal Street.
However, we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last three months mainly March-April-May 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 25114.25 in May 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 15.50% from the lower levels forming consecutive 3 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q4 GDP of 7.40% but since Nifty has made the bullish candle above 25000 last week so instead of range bound move we may get one way ahead towards 25500-25600 kind of levels while crucial supports have further shifted higher within the pre-defined range of 24400-24600 kind of levels with broadly positive momentum to remain within the whole June series this time.
FII’s & DII’s remained continuous buyer’s consecutively third month straight starting from March 2025 to so far in May 2025 (FII’s were marginally net sellers last week)which resulted in joint buying of Rs. 22,972.19 cr. by FII’s followed by Rs. 1,24,360.56cr. by DII’s whereas this is result of only Cash market data the FII’s also remain net longs on the derivatives front as well but the net longs reduced from 41% to now near to 16-17% last week. We have been consistently mentioning these positive data buildups since last 3 months as of now which now can be seen clearly.
This time not only broader markets witnessed a marvelous recovery but the dead portfolio’s of the investors also got revived & few heavy weight giants came back near to their respective ATH (All Time High) levels. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 now stable near 85.73
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 now set to increase towards 70$ from current levels of 66.63$
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
On the other side FII’s net longs have once again reached towards low’s of 16-17% which may again increase towards 45% almost & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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Gift Nifty sets an all-time high monthly turnover of $102.35 billion in May’25
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India plans to invite applications for its new electric vehicle (EV) policy starting in June’25
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India and Europe agree on nearly half of trade deal ‘chapters’
- Vodafone Idea : Govt likely to offer certain concession to the lender
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Voda Idea : Banks may be asked to extend fresh loans
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Govt plans to sell BSNL and MTNL assets worth rupees 55B
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Govt plans to sell BSNL and MTNL land assets worth rupees 10B
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Trump imposes 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective June 4
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Starlink set to launch in India : License expected to be approved soon, starting at Rs. 850/month, unlimited 700 GBPS speeds
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PM Modi will inaugurate the Chenab bridge, the world’s highest railway arch bridge, and flag off Vande Bharat Trains between Katra and Shrinagar in Jammu and Kashmir.
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Tata Tech : Dassault Aviation SA-Partners with TATA advanced systems to manufacture rafale fighter aircraft fuselage for India and Other global markets
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India plans to incentive scheme for domestic production of rare earth magnets as supply threat mounts, say-RTRS
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Third party insurance premium hike by 18-25% for motor insurance
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RBI: Rate of interest on India govt feb 2031 applicable for FY June 7,2025 to Dec 6,2025 shall be 6.63% per annum
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RBI : due to administrative exigencies, the MPC meeting rescheduled to august 4-6
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 now stable near 85.73
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 now set to increase towards 70$ from current levels of 66.63$
International news:
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 now set to increase towards 70$ from current levels of 66.63$
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China expends global income tax crackdown beyond ultra rich
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Elon Musk’s Starlink gets key license from India Telecoms department to offer servies
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FED said to leave rates unchanged : Federal reserve policymakers have indicated they are not hurrying to lower interest rates, and a government report released on Friday, highlighting a resilient labour market despite significant trade policy shifts, reinforces this position
RBI Policy:
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RBI cuts repo rate by 50 bps AT 5.50%
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RBI govt says to reduce CRR by 100 bps
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RBI govt says real GDP growth seen at 6.5% in Q1
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RBI govt says real GDP growth seen at 6.7% in Q2
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India 10 yr govt bond yield drops 9 bps to 6.1611%; previous close 6.2465%
In the institutional segment the FII’s turned marginally net sellers with net outflow of Rs. 3,295.88 cr. & the DII’s remained massive net buyer with net inflow of Rs. 25,513.43 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made high’s of 25029.30 & closed at 25003.05 with gain of 1.01% for the week. In the last three months mainly March-April-May 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 25114.25 in May 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 15.50% from the lower levels forming consecutive 3 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q4 GDP of 7.40%. Nifty is likely to continue to the bullish momentum with initial targets toward 25500-25600 kind of levels while on the downside immediate crucial support still remains at 24400-24600 range. Major bearishness can only be witnessed if these levels on the downside gets broken till then it’s a “Bull’s Day Out” on Dalaal Street. The major support is largely expected within the Banking & PSU Sectors followed by IT sector upto certain extent.
Sensex made high last week at 82298.55 to give a close at 82188.99 with gain of 0.90% . In the coming month ahead the major expected potential upside continues to remain towards 83400-84000 mark while the crucial supports continued to remain within our pre-defined range of 80000-81000. The major support is largely expected within the Banking & PSU Sectors followed by IT sector upto certain extent.
The Bank Nifty continue to have trajectory for another ATH (All Time High) to hit 57500 with crucial support shifting higher within the defined range of 55000 kind of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may continue to head for 27600 kind of level while crucial support continues to remain at 25500-26000 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” is expect to now rise towards 40000 kind of levels till the end of June 2025 series while crucial supports have shifted higher at 36000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25003.05
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25500-25600
Nifty Immediate Support: 24400-24600
Sensex CMP: 82188.99
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 83400-84000
Sensex Immediate Support: 80000-81000
Bank Nifty CMP: 56578.15
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 57500
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 55000
Nifty Financial CMP: 26848.19
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27600
Nifty Financial Immediate Support: 25500–26000
Nifty IT CMP: 37294.85
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 40000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 36000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
Infosys (CMP 1564): This large-cap IT counter has been on sideways since long but looks like a turnaround could happen somewhere here at 1564 with strict SL placed at 1490 one can expect a potential upside towards 1800 in next 2 months time frame.
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Tata Tech (CMP 758): As India-Russia head for Make in India Rafale jets this company is get to engage in this deal & is likely to get benefitted the most. One can add here at CMP 758 & can add more on dips towards 730 with strict SL placed at 699 one can expect a potential upside towards 881 in no time.
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NTPC (CMP 333): This large-cap PSU counter looks bullish from CMP 333 with SL placed at 320 one can expect a potential upside towards 370 in no time.
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ACC (CMP 1904): As central bank cuts Repo rate by 50bps cement companies may get boost. So this counter can be added here at CMP 1904 with SL placed at 1800 for a potential upside towards 2300-2400 in next 3-4 months time frame.
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Voltas (CMP 1271): This large-cap counter looks like downside almost is over & can be accumulated here at CMP 1271 with strict SL placed at 1100 one can expect a potential upside towards 1600 in a month time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985
