NIFTY TO HIT 26000 IN SEPTEMBER SERIES BANK NIFTY POTENTIAL UPSIDE REMAINS AT 53000 MARK

Dated: 14/09/2024

Nifty continued its winning streak with potential another ATH last week with high’s of 25433.35 followed by the FII’s relentless buying of Rs. 15,199.60 cr. last after almost 1.5 yrs FII’s turned net buyer’s in a week. The sudden buying which came into the index was perfectly executed as per our previous week’s expectations where we specifically mentioned that buying emerged could be supported by “Nifty IT”, “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like Reliance, HDFC Bank etc.

Bulls regained their grip on Dalaal Street last week to wipe out the Bears as relentless buying came with support by FII’s buying with specified earlier mentioned sectors with earlier specified heavy weight index. The heavy weight may continue to outperform the broader markets while the continuous upside towards potential upside of 26000 in Nifty could be supported once again by “Nifty IT”, “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like Reliance, HDFC Bank etc.

All these bulls have now raised the crucial supports towards the upper levels of 24800-25000 however, the upper price band now have raised towards potential upside target of 26000 mark. This upmove could be slow & steady with lots of hiccups on its way but the eventual winner could be Bulls.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

1. Total Collections: GST revenue for August 2024 stood at ₹1.74 lakh crore, showing a 10% increase compared to August 2023.

2. Breakdown:

   • Central GST (CGST): ₹30,862 crore.

   • State GST (SGST): ₹38,411 crore.

   • Integrated GST (IGST): ₹93,621 crore, which includes imports and inter-state sales.

3. Cess Collection: Cess on items like automobiles and tobacco contributed ₹12,068 crore.

4. Year-to-Date Performance: Cumulative GST collections for the fiscal year have reached ₹9.14 lakh crore, up 10.1% from the previous year.

5. Economic Indicators: This growth reflects strong domestic consumption, an increase in imports, and improved tax compliance.

6. Government Allows Sugar Mills & Distilleries To Make Rectified Spirit And Extra Neutral Alcohol From Sugarcane Juice & B-Heavy Molasses.

7. Indian government has sanctioned a whooping Rs 3 lakh crore worth infrastructure projects in the first 100 days of the Modi’s 3rd term.

8. India’s foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $689.2 billion as of September 6. (RBI)

International

US Federal Reserve: Continued discussions around tight US monetary policy influenced markets globally. However, a more dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and a significant reduction in previously reported US job numbers led to a positive shift in sentiment. The revision suggested that the labour market was weaker than initially thought, encouraging expectations of a potential pause or slowdown in rate hikes.

Other News:

1. Wall Street today: US stocks re-evaluate big Fed rate cut potential, Intel Corp. gains 1.83%trade higher as investors.

2. Bank of England to pause rate cuts focuses shifts to bond sales.

3. Over half of BOJ watchers see next rate hike coming in December.

On the other hand we have continuously been highly bullish on one specific sector i.e. “Nifty IT” which has dominated the Dalaal Street in this whole FY 2024-25 & is still expected to outperform the broader markets not only in the remaining parts of September 2024 but also in the remaining part of the FY 2024-25. With potential upside of “Nifty IT” it is expected to reach 45000 in September series while further upside now remains at 53000 mark till March 2024 which may continuously set fire in the Dalaal Street. . In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.

Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.

The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.

Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.

Now when we enter into the Institutional segment FII’s have now finally turned net buyer after almost 1.50 yrs in the last week with net buying of almost Rs.15,199.60 cr. while the DII’s were marginal net buyer with mere Rs.2,444.19 cr. last week.

Nifty last week remained sideways initially but eventually bulls took the things in their own hands & bought the entire markets upside which took the Nifty towards another ATH of 25433.35 to give a close at 25356.50 which is also highest Weekly closing with net gain for the week at 504.35 points i.e. net gain of 2.03% for the week. Nifty in the coming week ahead bulls are likely to remain sideways to highly positive with net bias now targeting at 26000 mark in the September series itself while the crucial supports have now shifted higher within the defined range of 24800-25000 range. However, unlike last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “Nifty IT” “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.

Sensex on the other hand again tested another ATH by making high’s of 83116.19 to give a close at 82890.94 with net gain of 1701.01 i.e. net gain of 2.05% last week. In the coming next week Sensex too may remain sideways to highly bullish however, September series could possibly let us towards 85000 mark while crucial support now remains at 80800-82000 kind of levels. However, unlike last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “IT Sector” “Banking Sector” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.

Bank Nifty now raises hear which could possibly get to see 53000 mark in the coming week while on the downside crucial supports have shifted higher within the range of 50000-50300 kind of levels with broader range remains bullish. The broader range could be supported by HDFC Bank, RBL Bank in private sector while PNB & SBI in the PSU counter in the coming week.

In Nifty Financial Services the crucial supports have shifted higher at 23500 while the upside potential now remains at 24500 kind of levels.

However, we have continuously been highly bullish on one specific sector i.e. “Nifty IT” which has dominated the Dalaal Street in this whole FY 2024-25 & is still expected to outperform the broader markets not only in the remaining parts of September 2024 but also in the remaining part of the FY 2024-25. With potential upside of “Nifty IT” it is expected to reach 45000 in September series while further upside now remains at 53000 mark till March 2024 which may continuously set fire in the Dalaal Street. . In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.

Till August 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 17.11cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised at Rs. 23000 cr. per month.

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  25356.50
Nifty Immediate Target : 26000
Nifty Immediate Support: 24800-25000

Sensex CMP: 82890.94
Sensex Immediate Target: 85000
Sensex Immediate Support: 80800-82000

Bank Nifty CMP:  51938.05
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 53000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 50000-50300

Nifty Financial CMP: 23979.55
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 24500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 23500

Nifty IT CMP: 43394.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 45000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 41800

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Oil India (CMP 585): This large cap PSU counter has been on correction mode since September series began it now looks like the cool off may get reversed. One can accumulate here at CMP 585 & can add more 556 with strict SL placed at 500 for an estimated possible target of 680 in a month.

• AB Capital (CMP 227): This large-cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 210 & still looks attractive to add here at CMP 227 with strict SL placed at 210 for an estimated possible target of 250.

• LIC (CMP 1034): In this counter we have already mentioned to add on decline towards 1010 last week & it has tested those levels & still looks attractive to add here at 1034 with strict SL placed at 900 for an estimated possible target of 1200+ kind of levels.

• Ola Electric Mobility (CMP 111): This newly listed largecap EV counter has cooled off lately & looks like is ready to blast from here onwards at 111 with strict SL placed at 90 for an estimated possible target of 150 within 2 months time frame.

• HAL (CMP 4645): This large cap defense counter looks good to add here at CMP 4645 with strict SL placed at 4400 for an estimated possible target of 5400 in 2 months time frame.

• SBI Cards (CMP 805): This large cap has been on our radar since subdued levels of 700 & beneath & still looks good to accumulate here at CMP 805 with strict SL placed at 720 for target 1000 & above in 2 months time frame.

• IOC (CMP 174): This oil counter looks like can cool off here at CMP 174 with strict SL placed at 160 for a possible cool off towards 184 for the coming week.

• Tata Technologies (CMP 1090): This large cap counter has shown selling since its listing but now looks for a poised upside from CMP 1090 with strict SL placed at 970 for a potential upside towards 1400.

• PNB (CMP 111): This large-cap PSU Banking counter looks attractive to add here at CMP 111 with strict SL placed at 104 for an estimated possible target of 126.

Mid- Caps:

• Anupam Rasayan (CMP 770): This mid-cap specialty chemical counter can form bottom here somewhere at 770 with strict SL placed at 730 with possible upside of 877 within 3 months time frame.

• All Cargo Logistics (CMP 68): This mid-cap logistics counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 68 with strict SL placed at 60 for a potential upside target of 90 in 3 months time frame.

• RBL Bank (CMP 214): This mid cap counter looks good to accumulate at 214 with strict SL placed at 189 for a possible upside of 260 in September series.

Small & Mid-Caps:

• K&R Rail Engineering (CMP 442): This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 428 & still looks attractive here at CMP 442 with strict SL placed at 400 one can expect upside towards 540 in 3 months time frame.

• Premier Explosives (CMP 569): This chemical small cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 569 for an estimated possible target of 620 with strict SL placed at 530.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

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