Dated: 21/09/2024
Nifty with potentially higher altitude continued its winning streak last week with another ATH of 25849.25 which was well as per our last week’s remarks of the winning streak to be support by several heavy weights by “Nifty IT”, “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like Reliance, HDFC Bank etc was well versed & the show towards 26000 began last week.
Just like earlier week this time once again FII’s shown interest in the Indian Equity markets with a net buying of Rs. 11,517.92 cr. for the week with major buying on the last day of the week i.e. Friday with net buying of Rs. 14,064.05 cr. in a single day which pushed the FII’s favorite stocks like HDFC Bank, Reliance , ICICI Bank etc to the stratosphere which not only kept Bank Nifty higher towards 54000 but also helped Nifty inching higher at 25800+ & heading closure towards 26000 magnificent mark.
With once again muted beginning of the week Nifty remained on a consolidation mode during major days of the week but bulls regained their dominance on Dalaal Street on last trading session of the week & proving that they are yet the leader of Dalaal Street & bears still have to wait far more time.
As we move ahead with a fresh week Nifty is highly likely to face immediate hurdle within the defined range of 26100-26200 kind of levels with major support following from “Bank Nifty” & marginal support by “Nifty IT” for the upper ground. This range of 26100-26200 could be an exertion for booking out the profits for short term as there is possibility of pull back looks inevitable this time & the possible pull back could be towards 25200-25400 range.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
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Economic Data: Mixed economic data, including soft employment figures and inflation reports, contributed to market volatility.
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Corporate Earnings: Several major companies reported their quarterly earnings last week.
International
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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% was a major driver of market movements.
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Mixed Economic Data: Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed signals, with some indicators pointing to a slowing economy.
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Asian Markets: Asian shares mirrored Wall Street’s rally earlier in the week, driven by positive inflation data.
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The exchange rate for US Dollar to Indian rupee is currently 83,503 reflecting a -0.174% change since. Over the past week, the value of dollar has remained stable, with a -0.461% decrease compared to value 7 days ago.
On the contrary “Nifty IT” recently has tested almost our crucial support levels of 41500 by making a low of 41614.25 to give a close at 42204.40. These lower levels of “Nifty IT” which defines the range at 40000-41500 remains a crucial support levels from there we may expect it to test 45000 on an immediate basis. However, our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
Now when we enter into the Institutional segment FII’s have now finally turned net buyer after almost 1.50 yrs in the second consecutive week with net buying of almost Rs.11,517.92 cr. while the DII’s were marginal net sellers with mere Rs.630.67 cr. last week.
Nifty last week once again remained sideways on the initial days of the week but eventually bulls caught up the pace on the last trading session of the week & took the Nifty up towards another ATH of 25849.25 to give a close at 25790.95 with a net gain of 434.45 points i.e. up by 1.68% for the week. Nifty eventually continued to remain in the hands of bulls but in the coming week it is highly likely to face profit booking from the range of 26100-26200 while this profit booking could take Nifty towards 24200-24400 which could also act as immediate crucial support range. However, unlike last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “Nifty IT” “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.
Sensex on the other hand also continued its winning streak on the last day of the trading session last week by making another ATH of 84694.46 to give a close at 84544.31 with net gain of 1653.37 points i.e. up by almost 1.99% for the week. Unlike Nifty Sensex too is likely to witness some profit booking from the upper levels of 85200-85600 kind of levels with immediate profit booking towards an expected levels of 82000-80400 which could also play as an immediate crucial support levels. However, unlike last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “IT Sector” “Banking Sector” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.
Bank Nifty has now completed our immediate target of 53000 last week this may extend now towards 5500-55500 in the coming week ahead with crucial support levels of 51900 kind of levels. The broader range could be supported by HDFC Bank in private sector while PNB & SBI in the PSU counter in the coming week.
In Nifty Financial Services the immediate target now remains at 25500 with crucial support remaining at 24000 kind of levels.
In the meanwhile “Nifty IT” recently has tested almost our crucial support levels of 41500 by making a low of 41614.25 to give a close at 42204.40. These lower levels of “Nifty IT” which defines the range at 40000-41500 remains a crucial support levels from there we may expect it to test 45000 on an immediate basis. However, our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Till August 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 17.11cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised at Rs. 23000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25790.95
Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 26100-26200
Nifty Immediate Target / Support: 25200-25400
Sensex CMP: 84544.31
Sensex Immediate Hurdle: 85200-85600
Sensex Immediate Target / Support: 82000-80400
Bank Nifty CMP: 53793.200
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 55000-55500
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 51900
Nifty Financial CMP: 24789.20
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 25500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 24000
Nifty IT CMP: 42204.40
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 45000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 40000-41500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Tata Technologies (CMP 1114): This large cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 1090 & looks hot to add here at CMP 1114 with strict SL placed at 970 for a potential upside towards 1400.
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Reliance (CMP 2971): This large cap has retained its position & helped Nifty to inch higher last week. If index as to gain then this counter looks interesting to add here at CMP 2971 with strict SL placed at 2850 for an estimated possible target of 3400 in 2 months time fram.
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SBI Cards (CMP 787): This large cap has been on our radar since subdued levels of 700 & beneath & still looks good to accumulate here at CMP 787 with strict SL placed at 720 for target 1000 & above in 2 months time frame.
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Jio Financials (CMP 354): This large cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 230-250 & still looks for a poised upside from here onwards 354 with strict SL placed at 300 for an estimated possible target of 520 in 3 months time frame.
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AB Capital (CMP 228): This large-cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 210 & still looks attractive to add on decline towards 220 with strict SL placed at 210 for an estimated possible target of 270.
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HDFC Bank (CMP 1741): This large cap private banking counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 1400 for investment purpose & still looks good to add here at CMP 1741 for trading purpose with potential upside of 1850 with strict trading SL of 1700 in a month time frame.
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LIC (CMP 1010): In this counter we have already mentioned to add on decline towards 1010 last week & it has tested those levels & again looks attractive to add here at 1010 with strict SL placed at 900 for an estimated possible target of 1200+ kind of levels.
Mid- Caps:
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All Cargo Logistics (CMP 67): This mid-cap logistics counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 67 with strict SL placed at 60 for a potential upside target of 90 in 3 months time frame.
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RBL Bank (CMP 213): This mid cap counter looks good to accumulate at 213 with strict SL placed at 189 for a possible upside of 260 in September series.
Small & Mid-Caps:
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Gandhar Oil (CMP 208): This Oil & refinery small cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 208 with strict SL placed at 170 one can expect an upside potential of 320 in a year time frame.
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K&R Rail Engineering (CMP 433): This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 428 & still looks attractive here at CMP 433 with strict SL placed at 400 one can expect upside towards 540 in 3 months time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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