Dated: 17/05/2025
Nifty tested 25000 with a buttery move last week. Investors / Traders stunned with a single day move of more than 3.50% (Monday) near to 24944.80 to give a close at 24927.70 while it took remaining parts of the week to actually hit 25000 mark but eventually it succeeded with high’s of 25116.25 to finally give a Weekly close above 25000 at 25019.80 with a weekly gain of 4.20% in a week since India-Pak war came to a ceasefire with the intervention / mediation of US President Trump.
Last week went as we predicted it to be where the week started with a good gap up opening & Nifty since then never looked back (just a profit booking of single day) & never gave anyone chance of entering into stocks / index or letting anyone make fresh long positions & a clean sweep game of Bulls remained all over the Dalaal Street with a bullish bar formation on Weekly charts followed by a strong close above 25000.
Meanwhile on 10th of May 2025 evening a news highlight came up where US President Donald Trump mediated between India & Pakistan & announced a ceasefire between the two nations which so far took a permanent pause on the escalations of war situation along the LOC followed by continuous buying by FII’s in Cash & Derivatives front then Nifty may have more potential to hit another high’s towards 25500-25600 in the coming week ahead while the crucial supports levels have once again shifted higher within the crucial support levels of 24400-24600 kind of levels only below these levels major weakness can be witnessed but till the time it remains intact we may not see Bears anywhere near the Dalaal Street anytime soon.
Furthermore major metals like Gold Silver remained cooled off followed by DXY which remained cooled followed by USDINR which remained cool off on the last week.
Furthermore Nifty overall fell 17.25% from the ATH of 26277.35 to make a low of 21743.65 & from those lower levels Nifty has now recovered nearly 15.55%. This sharp upmove was clearly indicated by us over several articles in last 5-6 weeks. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened but with finally its 6th & now 7th month where positive recovery was seen & Bull’s rejoices we now have hope for a smooth but gradual recovery into the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead to continue.
However, in Nifty we have clearly mentioned for an immediate upside towards 25000 last week we eventually succeeded easily while the FII’s & DII’s remained continuous buyer’s consecutively third month straight starting from March 2025 to so far in May 2025 which resulted in joint buying of Rs. 19,700.79cr. by FII’s followed by Rs. 83,925.59cr. by DII’s whereas this is result of only Cash market data the FII’s also remain net longs on the derivatives front as well. In the coming week ahead the current flow in the markets may lead Nifty towards unprecedented levels of 25500-25600 kind of levels while the continuous positive inflow of FII & DII’s have created / shifted the crucial supports to the higher levels of 24400-24600 kind of levels where major weakness now only be witnessed if the Nifty moves below these levels. We have been consistently mentioning these positive data buildups since last 2 months as of now which now can be seen clearly.
This time not only broader markets witnessed a marvelous recovery but the dead portfolio’s of the investors also got revived & few heavy weight giants came back near to there respective ATH (All Time High) levels. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 now stable near 85.50
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RBI further announced OMO of Rs.1.25 Lac crore to boost banking sector
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 101-102
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 64-65$
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Gross GST collections rise to an all time high of Rs 2.4 Lac crore in April
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India-UK signed a FTA deal followed by India-New Zealand also signed a FTA deal
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
However, Nifty has so far given 17.25% correction from the top of 26277.35 with data turning positive we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs have now improved towards 40% almost which has improved significantly from @15-18% & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 now stable near 85.50
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RBI further announced OMO of Rs.1.25 Lac crore to boost banking sector
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 101-102
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 64-65$
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Gross GST collections rise to an all time high of Rs 2.4 Lac crore in April
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India-UK signed a FTA deal followed by India-New Zealand also signed a FTA deal
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SIPs gain ground: Monthly inflows hit fresh all-time high of Rs 26,632 crore in April
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Govt approves transmission network for biggest hydropower plant on Indus river system
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LIC accumulates shares worth over Rs 47,000 crore in Q4 amid market volatility
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SBI to hire 18,000 officers in FY26, largest recruitment in a decade.
International news:
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 101-102
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 64-65$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
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Apple investment plans in India intact, proposes India to be major manufacturing base: Sources
In the institutional segment the FII’s net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 15,925.41 cr. & the DII’s were also buyer with net inflow of Rs. 9,557.10 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made high’s of 25116.20 to give a close at 25019.80. As we have mentioned earlier in Nifty we have clearly mentioned for an immediate upside towards 25000 last week we eventually succeeded easily while the FII’s & DII’s remained continuous buyer’s consecutively third month straight starting from March 2025 to so far in May 2025 which resulted in joint buying of Rs. 19,700.79cr. by FII’s followed by Rs. 83,925.59cr. by DII’s whereas this is result of only Cash market data the FII’s also remain net longs on the derivatives front as well. In the coming week ahead the current flow in the markets may lead Nifty towards unprecedented levels of 25500-25600 kind of levels while the continuous positive inflow of FII & DII’s have created / shifted the crucial supports to the higher levels of 24400-24600 kind of levels where major weakness now only be witnessed if the Nifty moves below these levels. This time the support may continue to come from Banking & “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
Sensex made high last week at 82788.14 to give a close at 82330.59. In the coming week ahead the major potential upside could be towards 83400-84000 mark while the crucial supports have further shifted higher within the defined range of 80000-81000. This time the support may continue to come from Banking & “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
As we are all gear up for upward momentum Bank Nifty is all set for another ATH (All Time High) to hit 57000 with crucial support shifting higher within the defined range of 53000-54000 kind of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may now head for 27000-27500 kind of level while crucial support now remains at 26000.
The “Nifty IT” has completed our immediate upside target of 38000 kind of levels by making high’s of 38375.55 to give a close at 37972.35 where major heavy weights shown heavy buying from the low’s. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” we may now get 4000 kind of levels till the end of May 2025 series while crucial supports have shifted higher within the range of 35000-36000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25019.80
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25500-25600
Nifty Immediate Support: 24400-24600
Sensex CMP: 82330.59
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 83400-84000
Sensex Immediate Support: 80000-81000
Bank Nifty CMP: 53595.35
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 57000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 53000-54000
Nifty Financial CMP: 26474.60
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000-27500
Nifty Financial Immediate Support: 26000
Nifty IT CMP: 37972.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 40000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 35000-36000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Tata Technologies (CMP750): This IT counter looks like forming a turnaround story from here onwards & can be added here at CMP 750 add more if comes to 710 with strict SL placed at 670 one can expect a potential upside towards 990 in 3 months time frame.
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Astral (CMP 1360): This counter looks good to add here at CMP 1360 with strict SL placed at 1236 with a potential upside expected towards 1700 in 4 months time frame.
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Voltas (CMP 1261): This large-cap counter looks like downside almost is over & can be accumulated here at CMP 1261 with strict SL placed at 1100 one can expect a potential upside towards 1600 in a month time frame.
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Wipro (CMP 254): This large-cap IT counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 254 with strict SL placed at 220 for a potential upside towards 270-275 kind of levels till May 2025 end.
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RECL (CMP 406): This large-cap PSU counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 406 with strict SL placed at 375 for a potential upside towards 460 in no time
Mid-Cap:
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Happiest Minds (CMP 604): This mid-cap IT counter can reverse from here onwards & can be added here at CMP 604 with strict SL placed at 500 for a potential upside towards 800 in 4 month’s time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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