Dated: 15/06/2024
After the election event has been closed Nifty remained dull throughout the last week though Nifty has been making new high’s but failed to sustained the high’s & the dull performance throughout the week was seen on Dalaal Street. Sector specific performance was seen & aggressive sector rotations were seen.
Nifty last week made a high of 23490.40 gave some good closing candle on Weekly charts. As earlier anticipated in our last article Nifty last week remained stagnant throughout the week & some dizziness was seen.
As of now immediate hurdle lies at 22500-22700 levels while immediate crucial support may continue to remain within the pre-defined level of 23200 any side breach can give us ui-directional movement in the markets. Any breach below 23200 can give us 22800-22900 as an immediate target while any breach above 23700 can provide us 24200 kind of levels in July series itself. However, sector specific approach & movements could remain in the focus.
The recent cool off of India Vix towards the lower levels of 12.655 suggests some stagnant moves to continue on Dalaal Street in terms of Indices & Nifty may remain on high’s but the major movement could remain missing.
Meanwhile on “Nifty IT” we continue to remain highly bullish with immediate support remaining within the pre-defined range of 31200-32900 levels we continue to expect “Nifty IT” to test 38000 mark in June series or maximum till the mid of July series. This sector offers a safe haven with market volatilities. The demand for IT sector could remain high in the coming months ahead.
The GST data shows positive development in the Indian economy on the domestic levels. As this time India has for the first time tested a magnificent level of GST collection of Rs.2, 10,267 cr. in the month of April 2024 as compared to its YoY collection of April 2023 as Rs. 1,87,000 cr. & in the month of May the GST collection was Rs.1,72,739 showing 10% growth on YoY basis. It indicates an impressive 10% Y-o-Y growth compared to last year. Top States contributing:
- Maharashtra– 26,854 crore
- Karnataka– 11,889 crore
- Gujarat– 11,325 crore
In the meanwhile US Fed left Bank rates remained unchanged for the seventh straight with key factors to notice here below are mentioned several key factors to keep note of:
- Fed leaves rates unchanged for 7th straight meeting,
- Officials raise 2024 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.6%,
- Median forecasts shows just 1 rate cut in 2024,
- Median forecast shows 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025,
- Fed says inflation has eased “but remains elevated”,
- Median 2024 Core PCE inflation estimate up from 2.6% to 2.8%.
Another factor to be considered the FII’s so far in the second week of the June series finally became net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 2030.83 cr. while DII’s continued to remain net buyer’s with stocks buying worth Rs.6,293.38 cr.. Meanwhile in the month of May FII were net negative with Rs. 42,214.28 cr. while DII’s were net buyers with net buying of Rs.55,733.04 cr.
However, we have been continuously been bullish on two sectors specifically in all these volatilities i.e. Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT. In Nifty FMCG we expected it to test 57000-60000 mark till now it has almost tested 59000 & soon can test 60000 magnificent mark as well till the end of June series & heavy weights like Hindustan Unilever Limited & ITC Limited may continue to outperform. On the other hand in Nifty IT we have been consistently been bullish with immediate target remains at 38000 mark with immediate crucial support existing at 31200-32900 kind of levels. Meanwhile the heavy weights here like TCS, Infosys & Wipro are highly likely to outperform the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead.
Nifty last week made high’s of 23490.40 to give a close of 23465.60 with net gain of almost 175.45 points i.e. 0.75% for the week. As we move ahead India Vix is expected to remain on the lower range after hitting the low’s of 12.655 it is expected to remain within the defined range of 12-16 & sector specific movement may remain into the focus. In the coming week ahead Nifty may continue to face immediate crucial hurdle at 23500-23700 range while on the downside immediate crucial support remains at 23200 levels. Any side breach could give us uni-directional movement either towards 24200 of 22800-22900 levels respectively. However, the focus shall be on Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT which could be considered as safe heaven & highly bullish sectors as of now.
Sensex last week made high of 77145.46 to give a close at 76992.77 with net gain of almost 299.41 points i.e. 0.39% up for the week. As earlier anticipated India Vix is expected to remain on the lower range after hitting the low’s of 12.655 it is expected to remain within the defined range of 12-16 & sector specific movement may remain into the focus. In the coming week Sensex is likely to face its immediate hurdle at 77700 & immediate crucial support continues to lie 73600-75000 kind of levels. Any side breach could give us 78500 & 71800 kind of levels respectively. However, the focus shall be on FMCG & IT sector which could be considered as safe heaven & highly bullish sectors as of now.
Bank Nifty on the other hand looks strong & any move above 50300 can give us 51200-51500 kind of levels & till the end of June series 52000 kind of levels while on the downside 49000 now remain crucial support levels & any breach below this cold show us 47500-46000 kind of levels on a positional basis.
In Nifty Financial Services we remain bullish with immediate target remains at 23000-23200 kind of levels while crucial support now remains at 22000 kind of level.
In Nifty IT sector we have been continuously been bullish & has shown bullish sign last week itself & this sector looks like is in another bullish mode & 38000 can be easily achievable in June series itself. In fact this whole coming FY 2024-25 may remain bullish for this entire sector. Moreover these dips remain an excellent opportunity to add longs into quality heavy weight IT stocks mainly; Infosys, TCS, Wipro etc.
Till March 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 14.39cr. which not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
In the FY 2023-24 so far the Direct Tax collection has amounting to whopping Rs. 18, 90,259 cr. has seen the surge of nearly 19.88% as compared to its previous year collection of Rs. 15,76,776 cr. .
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 23465.60
Nifty Crucial Hurdle: 23500-23700 / 24200 (As the case may be)
Nifty Crucial Support: 23200 / 22800-22900 (As the case may be)
Sensex CMP: 76992.77
Sensex Crucial Hurdle: 77700 / 78500 (As the case may be)
Sensex Crucial Support: 73600-75000 / 71800 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty CMP: 50002
Bank Nifty Crucial Hurdle: 51500 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Crucial Support: 47500 / 46000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 22411.95
Nifty Financial Crucial Hurdle: 23000-23200
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 22000
Nifty IT CMP: 34598.55
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 38000
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 31200-32900
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Apollo Hospital (CMP 6207):
This hospital sector giant looks like can form some short term bottom here somewhere. One can accumulate here at CMP 6207 with strict SL placed at 5950 for an expected target of 6600 within a month time frame. -
Mphasis (CMP 2409):
This IT giant looks like can continue its run-up with Nifty IT sector broadly being bullish. One can accumulate here at CMP 2409 with strict SL placed at 2187 for an estimated possible target of 2700-2800 till coming December 2024. -
MRF (CMP 125580):
This large cap auto giant looks like can show us reversal from recent low’s. One can keep strict SL placed at 1,16,000 & can accumulated here at CMP 125580 for an expected possible target of 1.50 lacs in 1-2 months time frame. -
Indian Hotels(CMP 613):
This hospitality sector giant looks good for short term run up from hereonwards. One can add here at CMP 613 & can add more on dips towards 593 with strict SL placed at 570 with an estimated possible target of 700 in 3 months time frame. -
PI Industries (CMP 3639):
This counter has shown consistent upside since last many years looks good to accumulate here at CMP 3639 with strict SL placed at 3440 for an estimated possible target of 4000-4100 kind of levels. -
Jio Financials (CMP 357):
This large-cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 320 & still can be added here at CMP 357 with strict SL placed at 300 one can expect possible target of 420 in July series. -
Infosys (CMP 1489):
This large cap IT counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 1400 & still looks hot at CMP 1489 & has shown some sharp pull back lately with Nifty IT being bullish now this heavy weight giant of IT sector looks good to accumulate here at CMP 1489 with strict SL placed at 1300 for an estimated possible target of 1700-1850 within next 4-6 months time frame. -
Wipro (CMP 478):
Another large-cap IT counter which has been on our radar since subdued levels of 439 & still looks like available on attractive price at CMP 478 & can be added on dips towards 430 with strict SL placed at 400 expect a price target of 540-620 within 6 months time frame. -
TCS (CMP 3832):
This large cap IT counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 3670 & still looks good to accumulate here at CMP 3832 with SL placed at 3400 for an estimated possible target of 4200 in June series. -
Adani Enterprises (CMP 3261):
As the BJP is coming back Adani stocks once again can reclaim the glory so one can add here at CMP 3261 with strict SL placed at 2850 one can expect it to re test the high’s of 3800-4000 in no time.
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Mid- Caps:
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IDFC Limited (CMP 115): This mid-cap NBFC counter can for short term bottom here at CMP 115 with strict SL at 100 one can expect upside potential of 150.
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Senco Gold (CMP 978): This mid-cap counter looks good for a possible target of 1300 till coming Diwali & can be accumulated at CMP 979 with strict SL placed at 800.
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Small / Micro Caps:
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Monte Carlo Fashion (CMP 589): This micro-cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 589 with strict SL placed at 500 one can expect it to rise towards 1000 in this FY itself.
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Shahlon Silk (CMP 22): This micro cap counter looks good for a short term reversal here at CMP 22 with SL placed at 19 one can go long for 30-31 kind of levels as immediate targets.
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About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 9+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
He has recently been recognized by “Silicon India Magazine” as “INDIA’S TOP 10 MOST PROMISING STOCK ADVIOSY SERIVCE PROVIDERS OF 2024”.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
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