Dated: 22/11/2025
BJP win lead Nifty near to ATH but faced “Nervous 90’s (ATH)” during crossing the high’s last week broadly market remained on the higher ground within the grip of Bulls as bears faced hard time to survive but Mid & Small cap portfolios still remained under pressure as Indices failed to cross the ATH levels.
Although market remained on the higher levels with the help of selective sectors & certain heavy weights (as mentioned in our earlier articles) but the portfolio’s still failed to show the green color as they are likely to turn green once Nifty sustains on or above 26300 where real performance of mid & small caps will probably come & the smooth flow of Nifty towards 26700-27000 possibly be seen in December 2025 series. Meanwhile on the downside crucial supports likely to remain within our pre-defined levels of 25800-25900 kind of levels.
The follow on buying this could not be supported by Bank Nifty like it did last week where it almost completed our target of 59200-59700 by making high’s of 59437.10 & now a possible pull back towards 57000-58000 looks possible. However, the potential upside in Nifty can now be well supported by continuous performance of “Nifty IT” which now has an upgraded target of 38000-40000 mark in December 2025 series.
However, the entire movement could not be a single sided move but rather a movement filled with lot of consolidations along with it. Few large-cap stocks like Reliance Industries, Kotak Bank, TCS & Infosys may support the index upside movement.
On the institutional front FII’s remained neutral with marginal net sell of Rs. 188.33 cr. Worth of equities while DII’s remained net buyers with massive buying of Rs12,969.03 cr. Last weeks sell off now once again backs FII’s turning net sellers in November 2025 with net outflow of Rs. 13,840.99 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 54,321.16 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets so far in this month.
We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.
India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.
FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:
| FII And DII Monthly Data (Rs. In cr.) | ||
| Month | FII | DII |
| Apr | 2,735.02 | 28,228.45 |
| May | 11,773.25 | 67,642.34 |
| June | 7,488.98 | 72,673.91 |
| July | -47666.68 | 60,939.16 |
| Aug | -46902.92 | 94,828.55 |
| Sept | -35301.36 | 65,343.59 |
| Oct | -2,346.89 | 52,794.02 |
| Nov | -13,840.99 | 54,321.16 |
| TOTAL | -1,24,061.59 | 4,96,771.18 |
As per our earlier expectations following the geopolitical issues Crude oil has finally tested 60$ per barrel almost & we continue to remain neutral in this sector while India Vix too hit almost 13 it may now eventually cool off towards 10-11 in November series itself.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 26244 in November 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 20% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q1 GDP of 7.80%.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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Rupee may as earlier mentioned hit 89.734 hitting & surpassing our target of 89.40 we now remain neutral here.
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Dollar Index so far hit 100.36 may hit 102
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Brent Crude hit 60$ per barrel as per our previous expectations we now expect it to hit 68$ per barrel
On the other side FII’s net longs now remains near to 11-12% & stayed stable as of now which signifies minimum downside while potential upside could be remains at large which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 24300-24500 has already been down while supports have shifted higher at 25800-25900 kind of levels which indeed could turn the game in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 36% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
| 1 |
SEBI will monitor F&O data closely before making further policy changes, emphasizing a cautious and measured approach to regulating derivatives. It may also reconsider short selling rules and the Securities Lending and Borrowing framework. |
| 2 |
Kotak Mahindra Bank board has approved a 1:5 stock split, dividing each existing equity share of 5 into five shares of 1 each. This move aims to enhance liquidity and make shares more affordable for investors, subject to regulatory approvals. |
| 3 |
The Indian Rupee hit a record low near 89.48 against the US Dollar due to strong dollar demand and trade uncertainties |
| 4 |
India Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.4, down from 59.2 in the previous month, while the Services PMI rose to 59.5, up from 58.9 earlier. |
| 5 |
The government will balance (national interest) with improving (ease of doing business) while facilitating increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII). |
| 6 |
The India-Israel Free Trade Agreement will eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers, enhance market access, and boost cooperation in tech, defence, fintech, agritech, AI, and cyber security. It will especially benefit services like IT and tourism, while 8–10 Indian companies have been shortlisted for a ?4.5 lakh crore Metro Project in Tel Aviv |
| 7 |
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor confirmed no specific rupee targeting; depreciation primarily driven by dollar demand. RBI policy MPC held the repo rate at 5.5%, lowered inflation forecast to 2.6%, and raised GDP growth to 6.8% in the latest policy meeting |
| 8 |
Electronics and IT exports surged backed by investments and state incentives, while exports to the US dropped 8.6% year-on-year due to tariffs |
| 9 |
Market-linked transactions fell 8.6%, but most consumption categories showed strong festive gains. Delhi Transport Corporation audit revealed massive losses and collapse of city bus fleet. |
| 10 |
India’s net direct tax collection grew 7% in FY26 so far, indicating steady government revenue. The government faces a tricky fiscal balancing act amid slower tax growth and emphasis on sustaining private investment and consumption |
International news:
| 1 |
SoftBank’s shares fell over 10% in Asia amid a broad tech and AI sell-off. Despite Nvidia reporting strong earnings, fears of an AI bubble drove the decline. SoftBank recently sold its Nvidia stake worth about $5.8 billion to fund larger AI bets, including its partnership with OpenAI. |
| 2 |
US Fed holds rates steady; Morgan Stanley 2.21% drops its forecast for a December rate cut, now expecting three rate cuts in 2026. |
| 3 |
A U.S. Treasury official said Chinese and Indian banks and refiners are aware of sanctions, risk-averse, and working to comply with U.S. restrictions on Russia’s oil firms |
| 4 |
Germany’s private sector contracted in November as manufacturing shrank and services slowed. French business activity stabilized due to service sector growth offsetting manufacturing decline. |
| 5 |
Japan’s core inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target at 3% in October, sparking expectations of interest rate hikes |
| 6 |
The US added 119,000 jobs in September but unemployment rose to 4.4%, indicating labor market sluggishness. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in August due to lower imports. |
| 7 |
UK inflation fell to 3.6% in October, raising hopes of a December rate cut by the Bank of England |
| 8 |
Russia’s recognition of the Taliban may start a domino effect in Central Asian geopolitics. US-Vietnam trade pact signals Hanoi as a strategic pivot in Asia. Recent military exercises in Taiwan and escalating conflicts in the Red Sea highlight geopolitical tensions. |
Nifty last week made high’s 26246.06 & closed at 26068.15 for the week. Nifty remained on the higher levels with the help of selective sectors & certain heavy weights (as mentioned in our earlier articles) but the portfolio’s still failed to show the green color as they are likely to turn green once Nifty sustains on or above 26300 where real performance of mid & small caps will probably come & the smooth flow of Nifty towards 26700-27000 possibly be seen in December 2025 series. Meanwhile on the downside crucial supports likely to remain within our pre-defined levels of 25800-25900 kind of levels. The follow on buying this could not be supported by Bank Nifty like it did last week where it almost completed our target of 59200-59700 by making high’s of 59437.10 & now a possible pull back towards 57000-58000 looks possible. However, the potential upside in Nifty can now be well supported by continuous performance of “Nifty IT” which now has an upgraded target of 38000-40000 mark in December 2025 series.
However, the entire movement could not be a single sided move but rather a movement filled with lot of consolidations along with it. Few large-cap stocks like Reliance Industries, Kotak Bank, TCS & Infosys may support the index upside movement.
Sensex made high last week at 85799.31 to give a close at 85231.92. Sensex too if now sustains above 86000 we may now ger to see 88000 kind of levels in December 2025 series. Meanwhile crucial supports have shifted higher at 84000-85000 kind of levels. However, the entire movement could not be a single sided move but rather a movement filled with lot of consolidations along with it. Few large-cap stocks like Reliance Industries, Kotak Bank, TCS & Infosys may support the index upside movement.
Bank Nifty may now have immediate hurdle at 60000 kind of levels while on the downside it may hit 56000 kind of levels on an immediate basis.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial now has immediate hurdle at 28000 kind of levels & may head for immediate downside towards 27000-26500 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” now holds the tag of value buying where nobody is interested & major heavy weights are available at attractive discounted rates this crucial index could hit 38000 now crucial supports have shifted higher towards 34000-35000 kind of levels any move above this in medium terms it may head for 40000 as well.
As of July 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 19.24 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 27269 cr. per month as on June 2025.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 26068.15
Nifty Potential Upside Hurdle / Target From Lower Levels: 26300 / 26700-27000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Downside Support: 25800-25900
Sensex CMP: 85231.91
Sensex Potential Upside From Lower Levels: 86000 / 88000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 84000-85000
Bank Nifty CMP: 58867.70
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 60000
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside: 56000-57000
Nifty Financial CMP: 27566.15
Nifty Financial Immediate Hurdle: 28000
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Target: 26500-27000
Nifty IT CMP: 36885.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target From Lower Levels: 38000 / 40000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 34000-35000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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SBI (CMP 972): This large-cap has seen massive rally lately may now show some cool off towards 940 with strict SL placed at 990.
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ICICI Prudential Life (CMP 611): This large-cap can show some cool off towards lower levels of 580 from CMP 611 with strict SL placed at 640.
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LIC Housing Finance (CMP 545): This large-cap has seen too much selling & looks like is on a over sold levels looks good to add here at CMP 545 & can add more if comes down to 530 with strict SL placed at 515 one can expect a potential upside towards 600 in no time.
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Kotak Mahindra Bank (CMP 2087): This large-cap private banking counter looks good to add here at CMP 2087 with strict SL placed at 2000 for an estimated possible target of 2220.
Mid-Caps:
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Devyani International (CMP 144): This mid-cap stock has been over beaten lately but now risk reward here looks good & has been on our radar since subdued levels of 138 & still looks good to add here at CMP 144 with strict SL placed at 120 for a potential upside towards 180 till March 2026.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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