Dated: 19/04/2025
Bulls Bulls & Bulls all over the Dalaal Street roared though it has been a small week but the way bulls managed to take Nifty towards the stratosphere where the rally seems to have been just started as Modi & the Almighty Trump have started to take their friendship to the next levels with ongoing India-US trade tariff talks which not only be benefitted to these trades but also to the strategic ties in the forcible future as well.
Trump continues to remain a volatile indicator of the broader markets not only on the domestic front but also for the Global Markets where the fear monger bullas & bears remain intact. Any uncertain announcement by Trump takes markets to unchartered territory. Nifty last week started with a bang means with a good gap up opening with was well retained throughout the week during trading hours despite major geopolitical tariff issues. Bulls on the front seat took the Nifty towards 23872.35 to give a close at 23851.65 with net gain for the week at 4.40%. Now ongoing Trumps Tariff negotiations puts some positive factors on the front while pharma sector still lags behind with unexpected tariff’s possible & for non retaliating nations while China paid the price major hike in tariffs as much as 245% additional tariff due to its nonstop retaliation with United States.
Furthermore Nifty overall fell 17.25% from the ATH of 26277.35 to make a low of 21743.65 & from those lower levels Nifty has now recovered nearly 9.25%. This sharp upmove was clearly indicated by us over several articles in last 2-3 weeks. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened but with finally its 6th & now 7th month where positive recovery was seen & Bull’s rejoices we now have hope for a smooth but gradual recovery into the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead to continue.
Bull’s now became leader in the major sectors now consisting the leader’s from Banking & NBFC space where Bank Nifty is ready to hit another ATH (All Time High) while Nifty Financials has already hit ATH(As earlier indicated by us several times). Nifty not only managed to somehow retain the levels near to 23000 mark but also respecting our earlier indicated levels of 22900-23000 to act as an immediate crucial support zones. We have been mentioning since last 3-4 Weeks consecutively that FII’s are covering up their shorts in Index & Stock derivatives & were clearly seen reducing their selling quantum in Cash segment as well & since last week’s few sessions they have once again turned net buyer’s last week with finally after 5-6 months FII turned net buyer’s on March series with net buying of Rs.2,014.18 which resulted in strong comeback of Bull’s which can be clearly seen last week where the strong buying / pull back was ambiguously seen.
As earlier anticipated Nifty did hold on to levels of 22900-23000 by making low’s of 23216.25 from there it rise back towards the high’s of 23871.35 to give a close at 23851.65. Furthermore the immediate hurdle still stands at 24000-24250 kind of levels but the positive momentum followed by India-US negotiations & Russia Ukraine coming to Cease fire it now looks like these levels can be easily taken over & it is highly likely to hit the range of 24500-24800 kind of levels. However, a particular pause could initially be seen at 24000-24250 range with crucial supports now shifting higher within the defined range of 23200-23500 kind of levels now.
Once again though some ease up has been seen in the broader markets but the major hit which the portfolio has seen in last 5 months is still unmatched & still it has far long journey to recover from hereonwards. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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Market participants expect continued durable liquidity injections this year, following the central bank’s latest move and guidance on banking system liquidity.
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India’s march core consumer price-based inflation 4.1%
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For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 85.429
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Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI April quarter of 25bps
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now well settled below 100
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 67.96$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
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Existing Tarries been reviewed under trade talk agreement with US
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India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,01,779.40 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March & so far in April 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 3,98,792.85 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 1.78 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
However, Nifty has so far given 17.25% correction from the top of 26277.35 with data turning positive we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs have now improved 30% almost which has improved significantly from @15-18% & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly. Which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 48% & followed by 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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Market participants expect continued durable liquidity injections this year, following the central bank’s latest move and guidance on banking system liquidity.
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India’s march core consumer price-based inflation 4.1%
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For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 85.429
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Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI April quarter of 25bps
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now well settled below 100
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 67.96$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
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Existing Tarries been reviewed under trade talk agreement with US
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India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
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India trade Secy: India hopes to negotiate a good bilateral trade agreement with the U.S.
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India Trade Official:”Very good progress” on trade talks with U.S. to offer more opportunities for India than concerns
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Foxconn sent highest ever I-Phones in a month, worth $1.3 billion, from India to U.S. ahead of Trump tariffs- custom data
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Indian government bond prices jumped to over three-year highs on Tuesday, led by short-end gains after the Reserve Bank of India announced yet another liquidity injection.
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Market participants expect continued durable liquidity injections this year, following the central bank’s latest move and guidance on banking system liquidity.
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Campa cola to invest Rs 1,000 crore to set up its first manufacturing unit in begusarai, Bihar.
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Update on Sugar Sector : India net sugar output reached 25.5M tons till April 15
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India sugar output number after diversion into Ethanol
International news:
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US slaps as much high as 245% tariff on Chinese imports.
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Trump initiates chips and drug probes ahead of more tariffs
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White house : Trump signed order launching an investigation into national security risks posed by U.S. Reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivatives products
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China now faced up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions
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China open to talk if Trump shows respect, names point person
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Opec cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.35 million BPD in monthly report (previous forecast 1.45M BPD)
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Opec cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.28 million BPD (previous forecast 1.43 million BPD)
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Opec cities data received for Q1 and recent US tariff announcements for 2025 oil demand forecast downgrade
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Opec cuts 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3% (previous forecast 3.1% ), also lowers 2026 forecast
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Opec says Opec +Crude output averaged 02 million BPD March ,down 37,000 BPD from Feb
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Germany considers withdrawing 1200 ton gold Stock pile from US in repo site to Trump
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now well below 100
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 67.96$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
Outcome of Monetary Policy
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RBI cuts Repo rates by 25bps at 6% now
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RBI Governor says MPC noted India inflation currently below target
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RBI chief FY-26 real GDP growth seen at 6% v/s 6.7% previously
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RBI chief to issue comprehensive regulations on loans against gold as collateral
RBI Monetary Policy Schedule in FY 2025-26
In the institutional segment the FII’s net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 14,670.40 cr. & the DII’s were surprisingly net sellers with net outflow of Rs. 6,470.52 cr.. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,000 cr. p.m. almost stagnant.
Nifty last week made some panic bottom around 23000-23200 range making low’s of 23207 to give a close at 23851.65. As earlier anticipated Nifty did hold on to levels of 22900-23000 by making low’s of 23216.25 from there it rise back towards the high’s of 23871.35 to give a close at 23851.65. Furthermore the immediate hurdle still stands at 24000-24250 kind of levels but the positive momentum followed by India-US negotiations & Russia Ukraine coming to Cease fire it now looks like these levels can be easily taken over & it is highly likely to hit the range of 24500-24800 kind of levels. However, a particular pause could initially be seen at 24000-24250 range with crucial supports now shifting higher within the defined range of 23200-23500 kind of levels now. The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well.
Sensex bottom around 76435.07 zone to give a close at 78553.30. In the coming week ahead the Sensex now has its crucial support within the defined range of 75000-76500 while on the upside immediate potential upside now remains at 81000-82000 kind of levels in the coming weeks ahead. The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well.
In Bank Nifty the lead may continue to come as another ATH is possible which could now extend towards 56500-57000 within next 3-4 weeks time frame while base for these levels could be at 51000-52500 kind of levels. The potential upside here now could be supported by major PSU Banks like SBI & BOB etc.
In the Nifty Financial Services we continue to expect another ATH towards 26500+ kind of levels with crucial supports shifting higher within the levels of 24000-24500 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” has completed our downside target of 32000-33000 making low’s of 30918.90 where major heavy weights shown pressurized selling from the top. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” could find its immediate possible support levels of 30000-32000 kind of levels and while if support remains held up then the potential upside from these levels could possibly be 35000-36000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 23851.65
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 24000-24250 / 24500-24800 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Support: 23200-23500
Sensex CMP: 78553.20
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 81000-82000
Sensex Immediate Support: 75000-76500
Bank Nifty CMP: 54290.20
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 56500-57000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 51000-52500
Nifty Financial CMP: 26071.60
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 26500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 24000-24500
Nifty IT CMP: 33375.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 35000-36000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 30000-32000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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LIC (CMP 803): This large-cap PSU counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 750 & below still can be added here at CMP 803 with strict SL placed at 700 one can expect a potential upside towards 1000+ in 2 months time frame.
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Godrej Properties (CMP 1991): This large-cap reality counter looks like can form bottom here somewhere at 1991 & can be added more if comes to 1900 with strict SL placed at 1890 the potential upside could be towards 2300-2500 in 2 months time frame.
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TCS (CMP 3299): As the Nifty IT index resides at major crucial support zones of 30000-32000 kind of levels this IT giant too could perform so one can add here at CMP 3299 & can be added more on dips towards 3000 with strict SL placed at 2900 for a potential upside towards 3800 in 2-3 months time frame.
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Infosys (CMP 1420): As the Nifty IT index resides at major crucial support zones of 30000-32000 kind of levels this IT giant too could perform this can be added here at CMP 1420 & can be added more on dips towards 1300 with strict SL placed at 1180 for a potential upside towards 1600-1800 in 2 months time frame.
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Jio Financials (CMP 246): This NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 231 & made two Bullish bar on Weekly charts looks good to add here & on dips towards 225 with strict SL placed at 200 one can expect a potential upside towards 300+ kind of levels in no time.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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