Dated: 26/04/2025
It has been a long week where so many things underwent where India-Pak declared war due to terrorists brutal killing of innocent Indian Hindu tourists in Kashmir followed by India-US tariff talks underwent smoothly following cool off in metals like Gold & Silver while Brent Crude & DXY remained cooled on the lower levels which ultimately resulted in Nifty to hit another upside towards 234364.85 kind of levels.
Trump previous to last week looked almighty for the whole world but since last week India-Pak war began Modi Ji looks like a probable almighty to the Indian’s who want revenge from Pakistan for the brutal killings in Indian soil. Well these war situations may create a knee jerk reaction into the markets which could possible take Nifty towards 23500-23800 kind of levels while on the upside immediate hurdle now remains at 24500 kind of level.
However, Indian domestic markets may not get any major setback even due to ongoing war news as India now has major upper hand in the Geo-Political front followed by India-Pak war where we will be easily won so once Nifty hit’s 23500-23800 we would be rebounding high’s towards 24800-25000 kind of levels from there as 24500 could once become hurdle but can easily be taken out afterwards.
Furthermore Nifty overall fell 17.25% from the ATH of 26277.35 to make a low of 21743.65 & from those lower levels Nifty has now recovered nearly 12%. This sharp upmove was clearly indicated by us over several articles in last 4-5 weeks. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened but with finally its 6th & now 7th month where positive recovery was seen & Bull’s rejoices we now have hope for a smooth but gradual recovery into the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead to continue.
As we have mentioned Bull’s will now continue to be leader in the major sectors now consisting the leader’s from Banking & NBFC space where Bank Nifty where another ATH (All Time High) has already been made (As earlier indicated by us several times). Nifty not only managed to somehow retain the levels above 24000 mark but also hit high’s of 24365.85. As we have mentioned with India-pak war initiating we may get to see a knee jerk reaction initially which could take Nifty initially towards 23500-23800 kind of levels & from those levels we may head towards 24500 which could initially act as hurdle but the flow could take us towards 24800-25000 kind of levels once India takes back its POK or major upper hands in the ongoing war situation. We have been mentioning since last 4-5 Weeks consecutively that FII’s are covering up their shorts in Index & Stock derivatives & were clearly seen reducing their selling quantum in Cash segment as well & since last week’s few sessions they have once again turned net buyer’s last week with finally after 5-6 months FII turned net buyer’s on March series with net buying of Rs.2,014.18 which resulted in strong comeback of Bull’s which can be clearly seen last week where the strong buying / pull back was ambiguously seen.
Once again though some ease up has been seen in the broader markets but the major hit which the portfolio has seen in last 5 months is still unmatched & still it has far long journey to recover from hereonwards. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 85.380
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Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI in April quarter
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 66-68$
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India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
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India to impose 12% temporary tariff or safeguard duty on steel imports ” At The Earliest,” Government
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India and US are actively working upon a fresh FTA (Trade Deal) post 90 day reprieve
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Negative news for Delta Corp: Govt likely to propose online gaming platform mandatorily register with FIU
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,47,171.74 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March & so far in April 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 3,86,078.09 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 1.78 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
However, Nifty has so far given 17.25% correction from the top of 26277.35 with data turning positive we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs have now improved towards 40% almost which has improved significantly from @15-18% & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly. Which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 48% & followed by 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 85.380
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Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI in April quarter
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 66-68$
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India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
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India to impose 12% temporary tariff or safeguard duty on steel imports ” At The Earliest,” Government
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India and US are actively working upon a fresh FTA (Trade Deal) post 90 day reprieve
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Negative news for Delta Corp: Govt likely to propose online gaming platform mandatorily register with FIU
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Indian government bond prices jumped to over three-year highs on Tuesday, led by short-end gains after the Reserve Bank of India announced yet another liquidity injection.
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Govt likely to propose online gaming platform mandatorily register with FIU
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Govt said to curb gaming laws
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Govt to relax BIS norms for AC companies
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Air India in talks with boeing to acquire 10 planes rejected by chinese buyers amid trade war-sources
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A USA air force plane just landed in jaipur, India. The plane came from AI Udeid air base in Quatar.
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Israel planes landed in India
International news:
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Pakistan says any attempt to ‘stop or divert flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per Indus water treaty will be considered as an Act of war’
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US president Trump says won’t drop china tariffs unless they give us something
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US slaps as much high as 245% tariff on Chinese imports.
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Trump initiates chips and drug probes ahead of more tariffs
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White house : Trump signed order launching an investigation into national security risks posed by U.S. Reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivatives products
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Opec cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.35 million BPD in monthly report (previous forecast 1.45M BPD)
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Opec cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.28 million BPD (previous forecast 1.43 million BPD)
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Opec cities data received for Q1 and recent US tariff announcements for 2025 oil demand forecast downgrade
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Opec cuts 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3% (previous forecast 3.1% ), also lowers 2026 forecast
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Opec says Opec +Crude output averaged 02 million BPD March ,down 37,000 BPD from Feb
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.72 to now well settled near 99
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 66-68$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
Outcome of Monetary Policy
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RBI cuts Repo rates by 25bps at 6% now
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RBI Governor says MPC noted India inflation currently below target
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RBI chief FY-26 real GDP growth seen at 6% v/s 6.7% previously
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RBI chief to issue comprehensive regulations on loans against gold as collateral
RBI Monetary Policy Schedule In FY 2025-26
In the institutional segment the FII’s net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 17,796.39 cr. & the DII’s were marginal buyer with net inflow of Rs. 1,131.81 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,000 cr. p.m. almost stagnant.
Nifty last week made high’s of 24365.85 to give a close at 24039. Nifty not only managed to somehow retain the levels above 24000 mark but also hit high’s of 24365.85. As we have mentioned with India-Pak war initiating we may get to see a knee jerk reaction initially which could take Nifty initially towards 23500-23800 kind of levels & from those levels we may head towards 24500 which could initially act as hurdle but the flow could take us towards 24800-25000 kind of levels once India takes back its POK or major upper hands in the ongoing war situation. We have been mentioning since last 4-5 Weeks consecutively that FII’s are covering up their shorts in Index & Stock derivatives & were clearly seen reducing their selling quantum in Cash segment as well & since last week’s few sessions they have once again turned net buyer’s last week with finally after 5-6 months FII turned net buyer’s on March series with net buying of Rs.2,014.18 which resulted in strong comeback of Bull’s which can be clearly seen last week where the strong buying / pull back was ambiguously seen. This time support could come from “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
Sensex made high last week at 80254.55 to give a close at 79212.53. In the coming week ahead the Sensex now show knee jerk reaction towards 77300-77500 & from those levels we could get the see the another upside towards 81000-82000 kind of levels. This time support could come from “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
This time Bank Nifty may remain on the back foot & may face immediate hurdle now at 56100 while immediate downside target looks like to remain at 52500-53000 kind of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may face hurdle now at 26820 kind of level while downside target now remains at 24000 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” has completed our immediate upside target of 35000-36000 kind of levels by making high’s of 35941.45 to give a close at 35562.35 where major heavy weights shown heavy buying from the low’s. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” if gives any move above 36000 then we may get 38000 kind of levels while crucial supports have shifted higher within the range of 32000-33000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 24039.35
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 24500 / 24800-25000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Support: 23500 / 23000-23200 (As the case may be)
Sensex CMP: 79212.53
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 81000-82000
Sensex Immediate Support: 77300-77500
Bank Nifty CMP: 54664.05
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 56100
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 52500-53000
Nifty Financial CMP: 26036.10
Nifty Financial Immediate Hurdle: 26820
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 24000
Nifty IT CMP: 35562.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 36000 / 38000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 32000-33000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Tata Technologies (CMP 693): This the breakout retest has completed this counter looks good to add on decline towards 670 with strict SL placed at 600 for a potential upside target towards 900-1000 in 3months time frame.
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LIC (CMP 791): This large-cap PSU counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 750 & below still can be added here at CMP 791 with strict SL placed at 700 one can expect a potential upside towards 1000+ in 2 months time frame.
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Wipro (CMP 241): This large-cap IT counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 241 with strict SL placed at 220 for a potential upside towards 270-275 kind of levels till May 2025 end.
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Tata Elxsi (CMP 5612): This counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 5612 with strict SL placed at 4700 for a potential upside towards 6500 kind of levels.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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