Dated: 10/05/2025
As India & Pakistan fear of war escalated Indian domestic markets remained strong & resilient with minor volatility of 1-2% where Nifty continue to hold the grounds of 24000 mark while the Pakistan Stock Exchange (KSE 100) saw massive sell off continuously 2 days with fall of 7% each day & trading was halted on both days with fear of collapsing their own economy.
On the contrary we have already mentioned since last 2 week’s that a onetime knee jerk reaction is possible in Nifty if war escalates with fall back towards 23500-23800 kind of levels & Nifty did took the one time hit towards hitting the low’s near to the levels to make a low of 23935.75 to give a meaningful close above 24000 mark at 24008.
Meanwhile on Saturday evening a news highlight came up where US President Donald Trump mediated between India & Pakistan & announced a ceasefire between the two nations which if takes a permanent pause on the escalations of war situation along the LOC followed by continuous buying by FII’s in Cash & Derivatives front then we could have a possibility of Nifty hitting towards 25000 kind of levels on an immediate basis while the crucial supports still reside within our pre-defined levels of 23500-23800 kind of levels while a major setback towards 23000 is only possible if this time any further war like situation escalates.
Furthermore major metals like Gold Silver remained cooled off followed by DXY which remained cooled while with border escalation USDINR jumped above 6 for a while but that too could cool off on the coming week with border tensions cooled off.
Furthermore Nifty overall fell 17.25% from the ATH of 26277.35 to make a low of 21743.65 & from those lower levels Nifty has now recovered nearly 13-14%. This sharp upmove was clearly indicated by us over several articles in last 5-6 weeks. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened but with finally its 6th & now 7th month where positive recovery was seen & Bull’s rejoices we now have hope for a smooth but gradual recovery into the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead to continue.
As we have mentioned earlier we have been quite successful in predicting the initial knee jerk reaction on Nifty with the effect of war escalation while since the ceasefire has been issued by both the nations Nifty may now get back to its stratosphere with levels hitting 25000 on an immediate basis as FII’s are in continuous buying zone in cash as well as derivatives segment. However, on the lower ground the crucial supports may continue to prevail within the pre-defined levels of 23500-23800 kind of levels while major draw down towards 23000 is only possible if either of the country violates the ceasefire. We have been mentioning since last 5-6 Weeks consecutively that FII’s are covering up their shorts in Index & Stock derivatives & were clearly seen reducing their selling quantum in Cash segment as well & since last week’s few sessions they have once again turned net buyer’s last week with finally after 5-6 months FII turned net buyer’s on March as well as in April series with net buying of Rs.2,735.02 cr. which resulted in strong comeback of Bull’s which can be clearly seen last week where the strong buying / pull back was ambiguously seen.
Once again though some ease up has been seen in the broader markets but the major hit which the portfolio has seen in last 5 months is still unmatched & still it has far long journey to recover from hereonwards. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 to give a decisive close at 85.409
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RBI further announced OMO of Rs.1.25 Lac crore to boost banking sector
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 100.34
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 64-65$
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Gross GST collections rise to an all time high of Rs 2.4 Lac crore in April
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India-UK signed a FTA deal followed by India-New Zealand also signed a FTA deal
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
However, Nifty has so far given 17.25% correction from the top of 26277.35 with data turning positive we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs have now improved towards 47% almost which has improved significantly from @15-18% & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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For the first time in last June 2024 Weeks Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but rise again due to war escalation & hit 85.954 to give a decisive close at 85.409
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RBI further announced OMO of Rs.1.25 Lac crore to boost banking sector
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 100.34
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 64-65$
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Gross GST collections rise to an all time high of Rs 2.4 Lac crore in April
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India-UK signed a FTA deal followed by India-New Zealand also signed a FTA deal
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SIPs gain ground: Monthly inflows hit fresh all-time high of Rs 26,632 crore in April
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Govt approves transmission network for biggest hydropower plant on Indus river system
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LIC accumulates shares worth over Rs 47,000 crore in Q4 amid market volatility
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SBI to hire 18,000 officers in FY26, largest recruitment in a decade.
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Competition Commission of India (CCI) has notified cost of production regulations to check predatory pricing or deep discounting || Any attempt to sell products/ services below the cost determined by the CCI will constitute as predatory pricing
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India trade minister : U.S- India perfectly complimentary economies, barring competition in One or two sectors
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LIC accumulates shares worth over RS 47000 crore in Q4 amid market volatility
International news:
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India-UK signed a FTA deal followed by India-New Zealand also signed a FTA deal
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.92 to now well settled near 99-100
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but now recovering stable near 60-62$
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 66-68$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
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Govt asks RBI, NPCI, others to amp up cyber security amid widening conflict with Pakistan
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Pakistan stock exchange trims losses to 3% after 6% slump at open following India’s Operation Sindoor
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Pakistan’s KSE-100 index suffers a 7% cut at open following Operations Sindoor while trading halted 2 days
In the institutional segment the FII’s net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 5,087.15 cr. & the DII’s were also buyer with net inflow of Rs. 10450.96 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made high’s of 24526.20 to give a close at 24008. As we have mentioned earlier we have been quite successful in predicting the initial knee jerk reaction on Nifty with the effect of war escalation while since the ceasefire has been issued by both the nations Nifty may now get back to its stratosphere with levels hitting 25000 on an immediate basis as FII’s are in continuous buying zone in cash as well as derivatives segment. However, on the lower ground the crucial supports may continue to prevail within the pre-defined levels of 23500-23800 kind of levels while major draw down towards 23000 is only possible if either of the country violates the ceasefire. This time support could come from Banking & “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
Sensex made high last week at 81048.54 to give a close at 79454.47. In the coming week ahead the major potential upside could be towards 82000 mark if either of the counter doesn’t escalates further while the crucial supports now remain at 77000-78000 kind of levels. This time support could come from Banking & “IT Sector” followed by heavy weights like Reliance etc.
It is now time for Bank Nifty to outperform once again which could hit 56000 once again while on the downside 52700-53000 still remains a crucial support levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may now head for 26500 kind of level while crucial support now remains at 25000.
The “Nifty IT” has completed our immediate upside target of 35000-36000 kind of levels by making high’s of 36538.60 to give a close at 35880.10 where major heavy weights shown heavy buying from the low’s. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” if gives a sustainable move above 36000 then we may get 38000 kind of levels while crucial supports have shifted higher within the range of 32000-33000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 24008
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25000
Nifty Immediate Support: 23500-23800 / 23000 (As the case may be)
Sensex CMP: 79454.47
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 82000
Sensex Immediate Support: 77000-78000
Bank Nifty CMP: 53595.35
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 56000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 52700-53000
Nifty Financial CMP: 25502.10
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 24000
Nifty IT CMP: 35880.10
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 38000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 32000-33000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Bandhan Bank (CMP 156): This large-cap banking company has report rise in 482% in its QoQ profits & looks good to add here at CMP 156 with strict SL placed at 140 one can expect a potential upside towards 200 in 3months time frame.
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Voltas (CMP 1235): This large-cap counter looks like downside almost is over & can be accumulated here at CMP 1235 with strict SL placed at 1100 one can expect a potential upside towards 1600 in a month time frame.
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Wipro (CMP 242): This large-cap IT counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 242 with strict SL placed at 220 for a potential upside towards 270-275 kind of levels till May 2025 end.
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Infosys (CMP 1507): This large-cap IT counter could outperform the sector but can be added on decline towards 1456 with strict SL placed at 1300 one can expect a potential upside towards 1620 in no time.
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LIC (787): This large-cap PSU counter looks hot here at CMP 787 with strict SL placed at 700 one can expect a potential upside towards 920 in a month time frame.
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Delhivery (CMP 300): This counter looks like good to accumulate here at CMP 300 with strict SL placed at 250 one can expect a potential upside towards 400 in 3 months time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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