Dated: 16/11/2024
The entire move remained under pressure with FII’s continuous selling pressure as so far FII’s have sold massive Rs.1.44 Lac crore since the beginning of October 2024 while DII’s failed to support the overall move despite their massive buying of Rs. 1.38 Lacs crore in the respective time period. It seems like rate cut by the US Fed in their recent meeting didn’t seem to impress the FII’s to invest in Emerging Markets specially India as they continue to withdraw the funds of Domestic Indian Equity Markets.
Nifty last week made high around the levels of 24336.80 to make a low of 23484.15 to give a close at 23532.70 as Nifty retraced a massive 2792.85 points from the ATH of 26277.35 pouring traders / investors into panic. Broadly Nifty is all set to have its crucial juncture where it can all settle down i.e. 23300-23400 this levels remains crucial from where now the upwards momentum could be hard but eventually the potential upside remains at 24000 & furthermore 24550 any further upside now opens gateway only once sustains above 24550.
FII’s remained net sellers with impactful continuous outflow from Indian Domestic Equity Markets. So far FII’s have sold massive Rs. 1,43,797.10 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 in which Rs.29,533.17 cr. so far in November 2024 series which lead Nifty to fell almost 2792.85 points fall from the ATH i.e. 26277.35 to make a low of 23484.15. However this sell off only demonstrate 10.63% fall from the top which doesn’t seems much as compared to the outflow seen from FII’s as this was majorly absorbed by the DII’s relentless buying to support the broader markets with net buying of Rs. 1,33,777 cr. since the beginning of October 2024. This crucial support by the DII’s has lead the broader markets to remain calm despite the 10.63% fall DII’s have played crucial role in stabilizing the broader markets & didn’t let any major fall in the domestic equity markets.
The expected potential upside could be supported by the Banking & Financial Services sector followed by “Nifty IT” sector which if holds on the current levels could trigger the potential upside into the broader markets. In some cases Nifty PSU Banks may also outperform & support the broader markets.
FII’s net longs now stand near to 22-24% which continuously signifies the bottom formation somewhere near. & history has shown whenever FII’s have 20-25% of net long level positions the bottom has been made somewhere near.
As Dalaal Street is all set for a potential upside the major movement could be supported well by few heavy weights like; Reliance Industries Ltd., TCS, HDFC Bank, SBI & PNB etc.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
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Donal Trump return to white house. A Trump presidency could introduce significant shifts for INDIAN businesses, especially export -driven sector like NIFTY IT, NIFTY PHARMA, NIFTY METAL.
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Mauritius based FII BUYS STAKE in IT stock Dev IT
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Railways stocks correct up to 45% from record highs
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The gold price consistently going down this week
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The currency of India [RS] getting weaker this week compare to Dollar price
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CLSA raises INDIA allocation overweight on potential foreign inflow, cuts China in U- turn.
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MSCI Rebalancing on 25/11/2024 – The adjustments from this MSCI rejig are poised to enhance India’s representation in the MSCI Emerging Market index from 19.3% to approximately 19.8%. The change positions India as a more attractive destination for foreign institutional investors [FIIs] with expected total inflow reaching around $2.5 billion major inn & outflow are:
| S.NO | NAME OF COMPANIES | INFLOW | OUTFLOW |
| 1 | Voltas Ltd | $ 313 Million | |
| 2 | BSE Ltd | $ 224 MILLION | |
| 3 | HDFC Bank | RS 15759 CRORES | |
| 4 | Reliance Industries | $198 MILLION | |
| 5 | ICICI Bank | $166 MILLION | |
| 6 | Infosys | $148 MILLION | |
| 7 | Bharti Airtel | $105 MILLION | |
| 8 | SBI | RS.2561.99 MILLION | |
| 9 | TCS | $92 MILLION | |
| 10 | Adani green energy | $173 MILLION | |
| 11 | Adani power | $111 MILLION |
International
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TAX CUT aims to boost U.S companies which could intensify competition for Indian exports.
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Bank of AMERICA Says Trump’s win will unlock small-cap mergers and acquisitions
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Aisa markets mixed as investors assess China economic data and Japan GDP after Wall Street falls
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World’s largest olive oil producer says prices set to halve from record level.
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Bavarian Nordic sinks 17% as EUROPEAN market shift lower, UK GDP ticks up slightly.
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Dollar eyes weekly gain on slower Fed easing ,inflation outlook
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US money market fund reach record $ 6.67 trillion as institutional investors drive inflow
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According to CHRIS WOOD Trump’s 60% China tariff unlikely Beijing may want to negotiate for chip.
“Nifty IT” has shown strength last week as it enters to our previously mentioned crucial support zones of 40000-41500 & bounced back towards 42884.66 to give a close at 42390.85. In all these turmoil & bottom formation the one sector which stood tall was “Nifty IT” which remained untouched in last 6 weeks as of now where investors / trades remained into panic with bleeding portfolio but this sector stood tall. In our overall view “Nifty IT” sector continues to have its crucial support within the pre-defined range of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 44000-45000 on an immediate basis i.e. in short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
In the institutional segment the FII’s have massively sold nearly Rs. 19,637.60cr. in a single week & so far more than Rs. 9,683.64 cr. so far since beginning of October 2024 but here DII’s have been the best buyer’s with Rs. 12,508.14 cr. last week which helped Nifty to retain the bottom of 23300-23400. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data surpassed Rs.23,000 cr. p.m.
Nifty showing continuous pressure due to relentless selling pressure by FII’s which lead the Nifty to make another low’s of 23484.15 to give a close at 23532.17 with net loss of 615.50 points i.e. -2.5% for the week. In the coing week ahead the crucial support now remains at 23300-23400 with potential upside could initially be at 24000 & furthermore could head towards 24550 any further move could be decided if Nifty sustains above these levels. However, the entire follow-up is set for a potential upside the major movement could be supported well by few heavy weights like; Reliance Industries Ltd. , TCS (brokerage firms outlook remains positive post results), HDFC Bank, SBI & PNB etc.
Sensex too remained under pressure to net loss of 1537.06 points to give a close at 77580.30 with net negative of 1.94% last week. Furthermore in the coming week the crucial support likely to remain within the range of 76700-77000 with potential upside could be towards 79000-81000 which if sustains above could sustain towards 82300 kind of levels. However, the entire follow-up is set for a potential upside the major movement could be supported well by few heavy weights like; Reliance Industries Ltd, TCS (brokerage firms outlook remains positive post results), HDFC Bank, SBI & PNB etc.
Bank Nifty currently standing on crucial juncture with support remaining at 49500-50000 while potential upside still remains at 53000-54000 range. The broader range could be support by certain heavy weight Private Banks like HDFC Bank & some PSU heavy weight banks like PNB & SBI etc.
In Nifty Financial Services the immediate crucial support remains at 23000-23250 with potential upside towards 24500 kind of levels.
After the Trump winning US Presidential election “Nifty IT” has shown strength last week as it enters to our previously mentioned crucial support zones of 40000-41500 & bounced back towards 42884.60 to give a close at 42390.85. In all these turmoil & bottom formation the one sector which stood tall was “Nifty IT” which remained untouched in last 6 weeks as of now where investors / trades remained into panic with bleeding portfolio but this sector stood tall. In our overall view “Nifty IT” sector continues to have its crucial support within the pre-defined range of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 44000-45000 on an immediate basis i.e. in short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Till October 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 20cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised at Rs. 23000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 23532.70
Nifty Immediate Target : 24000-24550 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23300-23400
Sensex CMP: 77580.31
Sensex Immediate Target: 79000-81000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76700-77000
Bank Nifty CMP: 50179.55
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 53000-54000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 49500-50000
Nifty Financial CMP: 23200.30
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 24500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 23000-23200
Nifty IT CMP: 42390.85
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 44000-45000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 40000-41500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Dmart (CMP 3824): This large cap has corrected nearly 31.60% from its recent high’s of 5485. Looks like the selloff is about to get over here somewhere. One can accumulate here at CMP 3823 with SL placed at 3500 for potential upside towards 4500-4700 in 3 months time frame.
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Titan (CMP 3184): This large-cap has shown some correction following the move of broader markets. Looks good to accumulate here at CMP 3184 with strict SL placed at 3000 this counter show some potential upside towards 3600 in no time.
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Jio Financials (CMP 318): This large cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 230-250 & still looks for a poised upside from here onwards 318 with strict SL placed at 300 for an estimated possible target of 520 in 2 months time frame.
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Reliance (CMP 1268): If Nifty has to sustain & rise from here onwards the potential upside candidate would be Reliance which could find its crucial support within the range of 1257-1284 & if sustains the potential upside form here on wards could be around 1600 in the next 3-6mths time frame.
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Ramco Cements (CMP 902): This large cap infra counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 902 with strict SL placed at 830 one can expect the potential upside towards 1029.
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AB Capital (CMP 188): This large cap NBFC counter looks good to add here at CMP 188 with potential upside of 250 in 1 month time frame.
Mid- Caps:
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India Tourism (CMP 592): This mid-cap counter looks like can complete its selloff from top of 931. Looks good to accumulate on minor decline towards 560-570 with strict SL placed at 520 one can expect the potential upside towards 750 in 3 months time frame.
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HFCL (CMP 127): This mid-cap counter looks like has formed a good bottom here at CMP 127 with strict SL placed at 108 one can expect a potential upside towards 150 in no time.
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Burger King (CMP 85): This mid-cap counter looks attractive to add here at CMP 85 with SL placed at 80 with potential upside towards 115-125 in 2 months time frame.
Small & Mid-Caps:
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Hathway Cable & Datacom (CMP 18.33): This small cap counter looks like can move 20-25% in short term with marginal SL placed at 18 once can accumulate here at CMP 18.33 with potential upside towards 25-26.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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