Dated: 28/09/2024
Nifty managed to clinch the high’s we mentioned last week of 26200 by making high’s of 26277.35 & continued its winning streak with another ATH on Dalaal Street. The broader movement was perfectly as per our expectations as the rally was supported by heavy weights only majorly Reliance, HDFC Bank, TCS etc.
The Foreign Portfolio Investors have just pumped nearly 50,000 cr. in a single month (September, this far). That’s the second largest monthly inflow, after Dec 2023, in the last three years. This positive inflow has continuously been support the Indices in it’s upwards journey & the FII’s favorite stocks have been flying in this particular month. FII’s favorite stocks constitutes Reliance, HDFC Bank, TCS, ICICI Bank all have support the rally last week.
Nifty started the journey on a muted cause but eventually bulls took up the things in their own hands & took the Nifty not only above 26000 but also towards a strong closing towards another ATH.
As we move ahead with not only a fresh week but also a fresh month of October 2024 Nifty if sustains above 26200 we could possibly get to see 26500-26700 majorly supported by Bank Nifty & “Nifty IT” in a flow but this time the potential upside would be with caution as profit booking is expected to arise at anytime & the potential profit booking towards 25000-25300 while on its way crucial support remains @25800 any breach below this could give us the desired profit booking levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
-
Swiggy files updated DRHP for Rs 3,750 cr fresh issue, major investors to sell their shares
-
Adani Power: co signed a share purchase agreement with OTEPL to acquire entire stake in Orissa thermal energy || entity being acquired belongs commodity trading activities
-
Corporate Earnings: Several major companies reported their quarterly earnings last week.
International
-
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% was a major driver of market movements.
-
Mixed Economic Data: Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed signals, with some indicators pointing to a slowing economy.
-
The exchange rate for US Dollar to Indian rupee is currently 83,503 reflecting a -0.174% change since. Over the past week, the value of dollar has remained stable, with a -0.461% decrease compared to value 7 days ago.
Meanwhile the “NiftyIT” sector now following our immediate crucial support levels of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 45000 on an immediate basis i.e. In short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
Now when we enter into the Institutional segment FII’s remained slightly negative last week with almost net negative of Rs. 3,932.80 while the DII’s were net buyers with net buying of Rs. 15,961.07 cr. last week. The Foreign Portfolio Investors have just pumped nearly 50,000 cr. in a single month (September, this far). That’s the second largest monthly inflow, after Dec 2023, in the last three years.
Nifty last week once again made another ATH by making high’s of 26277.35 to give a close at 26178.95with net upside of almost 388 points i.e. net gain of 1.50% almost for the week. As we move ahead the Nifty is sustains above 26200 we could have major potential upside towards 26500-26700 but this potential upside will remain with caution as anytime profit is expected & this can lead this towards 25000-25300 while this is expected only if the crucial support levels of 25800 is breached on the downside. However, just last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “Nifty IT” “Bank Nifty” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.
Sensex on the other hand also maintained the upside momentum with another ATH 85978.25 to give a close at 85571.85 with net gain of 1027.54 i.e. net upside of almost 1.20% for the week. Just like Nifty Sensex too has upside potential towards 86600-86800 with crucial support lying at 84500 & any breach below this could give us 82000 kind of levels as the upside potential from now onwards has caution & risks involved. However, unlike last time broader movement may continue to remain focused & supported by “IT Sector” “Banking Sector” & several other heavy weights like HDFC Bank & Reliance etc.
Bank Nifty on the other hand is expected to raise its targets towards 55500-56000 in the coming series while the potential crucial support now has shifted higher at 53000-53700 range. The broader range could be supported by HDFC Bank in private sector while PNB & SBI in the PSU counter in the coming week.
In Nifty Financial Services immediate target has now been raised towards 26000 with crucial supports lying at 24000-24700 kind of levels.
On the contrary the “NiftyIT” sector now following our immediate crucial support levels of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 45000 on an immediate basis i.e. In short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Till August 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 17.11cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised at Rs. 23000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 26178.95
Nifty Immediate Target / Hurdle: 26200 / 26500-26700 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Target / Support: 25800 / 25000-25300 (As the case may be)
Sensex CMP: 85571.85
Sensex Immediate Target / Hurdle: 86600-86800 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Target / Support: 84500 / 82000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty CMP: 53834.30
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 55500-56000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 53000-53700
Nifty Financial CMP: 24907.95
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 26000
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 24000-24700
Nifty IT CMP: 42312.60
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 45000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 40000-41500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
-
IRCTC (CMP 925): This railway counter looks like has almost completed its sideways consolidation & if hold these levels we can get the rally in October series. One can accumulate here at CMP 925 with strict SL placed at 840 for an estimated possible target of 1150.
-
DMART (CMP 5100): This FMCG giant looks good to accumulate on dips towards 5000 with strict SL placed at 4700 one can expect potential upside towards 5800 in October series itself.
-
Exide Industries (CMP 497): This counter has shown some cool off in the last 4 months but looks like again is ready for a potential upside from here onwards. One can accumulate here at CMP 497 with strict SL placed at 450 for a estimated possible target of 580 in a month time frame.
-
Tata Technologies (CMP 1121): This large cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 1090 & looks hot to add here at CMP 1121 with strict SL placed at 970 for a potential upside towards 1400.
-
PNB (CMP 110): This large-cap PSU bank looks good to accumulate here at CMP 110 with strct SL based at 100 for an estimated possible target of 125 in no time.
-
Reliance (CMP 3052): This large cap has retained its position & helped Nifty to inch higher last week. This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 2972. If index has to gain then this counter still looks interesting to add here at CMP 3052 with strict revised SL placed at 2960 for an estimated possible target of 3400 in 2 months time frame.
-
SBI Cards (CMP 786): This large cap has been on our radar since subdued levels of 700 & beneath & still looks good to accumulate here at CMP 786 with strict SL placed at 720 for target 1000 & above in 2 months time frame.
-
Jio Financials (CMP 359): This large cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 230-250 & still looks for a poised upside from here onwards 359 with strict SL placed at 300 for an estimated possible target of 520 in 3 months time frame.
-
AB Capital (CMP 236): This large-cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 210 & still looks attractive to add here at CMP 236 with strict SL placed at 210 for an estimated possible target of 270.
-
LIC (CMP 1024): In this counter we have already mentioned to add on decline towards 1010 last week & it has tested those levels & again looks attractive to add here at 1024 with strict SL placed at 900 for an estimated possible target of 1200+ kind of levels.
Mid- Caps:
-
RBL Bank (CMP 207): This mid cap counter looks good to accumulate at 207 with strict SL placed at 189 for a possible upside of 260 in September series.
Small & Mid-Caps:
-
Gandhar Oil (CMP 211): This Oil & refinery small cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 211 with strict SL placed at 170 one can expect an upside potential of 320 in a year time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985