US–IRAN PEACE HOPES “OIL DROPS. BULLS RETURN. BANK NIFTY CHARGES AHEAD : NIFTY 25,000 NEXT?”

At last US-Iran seems like are ready to deal with their issues & move ahead with a peace deal. This time Iran itself has confirmed that there are 80-85% chance that deals is highly likely to get signed this week or the another very soon. Well, what were the outcomes of this news? Brent crude hit as low as 85.23$ per barrel Nifty gave a close with Bullish Bar on Weekly charts Bank Nifty gave a decisive breakout for a possible 58000-59000 in coming weeks ahead & Rupee surged massive towards 94.95 per dollar though rupee had earlier things like positive factors intervened by RBI via issue of G-sec securities & giving tax benefits to FII’s for the same.

A successful US-Iran agreement could act as a powerful macroeconomic catalyst for India, with lower crude oil prices potentially supporting lower inflation, a stronger Rupee, improved corporate earnings, and a favorable environment for Nifty’s march toward higher levels. Here’s how things would eventually work out:

🔹Potential US–Iran agreement may increase global oil supply, reducing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

🔹Brent crude prices have softened, which is positive for India as it imports nearly 85% of its crude oil needs.

🔹Lower crude prices can help reduce inflation, easing pressure on household and business expenses.

🔹India’s import bill and current account deficit may improve, supporting the Indian Rupee.

🔹Lower fuel costs can boost profitability for sectors like:

• Banking & Financials
• Real Estate
• Aviation
• Automobiles
• Logistics
• Paints & Chemicals
• FMCG

🔹Improving inflation outlook may give RBI more flexibility on interest rates, supporting economic growth.

🔹Positive macro environment could attract FII inflows, improving sentiment in Indian equities.

Nifty after nearly wait of 7-8 long weeks has finally shown strength for a positive move ahead. Indices like Nifty & Bank Nifty a decisive bullish close with Bullish candle of Nifty & Bank Nifty both of which gave a positive close with 1.10% & 4.25% last week. While India Vix declined as much as 6.78% last week to give a decisive close at 14.72.

FII’s though remained aggressive sellers but selling has declined to Rs. 15,315.95 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 24,014.47 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 12^th June 2026 at 2.44 lacs net index shorts with net longs improved to 10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well & possible bottom formation in the broader markets as well.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum few key major factors are likely to be considered & are likely to top out soon. So, far we have positive data developments across the board which has been the reason for positive moves in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swap auction & issuance of G-sec securities to stabilize the Rupee it re covered towards 94.75 to give a decisive close at 95.110 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 93 in few weeks’ time frame following US-Iran-Israel trade deal.
2. Dollar Index: DXY may correct towards 97-98 levels.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 85.23 $ per barrel almost completing our target of 85$ we still expect it to hit 78-80$ per barrel in case of any further positive outcome from the war front in June series.
4. FII’s Remained Covering Shorts: FII’s on 08^th June 2026 net Index shorts were at 7.58% with net short contracts were 2.78 Lacs which now has started declining & last recorded on 12^th June 2026 at 2.44 lacs net index shorts with net longs improved to 10% indicating possible short covering to come in coming days as well.

It’s been second week of June series & broader markets are showing possibility of bottom formation with possible deal of US-Iran. In Nifty immediate crucial supports have shifted higher at 23000 while on the upside immediate potential upside could range from immediate at 24100 above which 24600 & ultimately in this entire June series 25000 could be an ultimate target zone. FII’s net index longs remain at 10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remain at 2.44 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs). This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector upto somehow.

Bank Nifty may continue to show strength which may extend its immediate rally towards further upgraded target of 58000-59000 in June series while supports have shifted further higher at 53800-54000 kind of levels. The support may now come from Private & Public sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while a upmove may get restricted at 31000-32000 as of now.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 85.23 $ per barrel almost completing our target of 85$ we still expect it to hit 78-80$ per barrel in case of any further positive outcome from the war front in June series.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 85.23 $ per barrel almost completing our target of 85$ we still expect it to hit 78-80$ per barrel in case of any further positive outcome from the war front in June series.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

1. Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
2. Dollar Index cool off towards 97-98.
3. Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 85.23 $ per barrel almost completing our target of 85$ we still expect it to hit 78-80$ per barrel in case of any further positive outcome from the war front in June series.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 10% & a recovery is possible towards 17% followed by 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be at 23000 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles will increase prices of its passenger vehicle range by up to 1.5% effective July 1, 2026, citing rising input costs and ongoing inflationary pressures.
2. The Government of India has reduced the base import price of gold by USD 80 per 10 grams to USD 1,343 per 10 grams, lowering the reference value used for calculating customs duties on gold imports.
3. The Government has increased the price caps on the cancer drugs Carboplatin and Cisplatin by 50%, with the NPPA invoking Para 19 of the DPCO to ensure continued supply amid rising platinum-based raw material costs.
4. Piyush Goyal will visit Switzerland next week to advance implementation of the India–EFTA trade agreement and promote investment commitments from EFTA member nations into India.
5. The Government has imposed temporary fuel distribution restrictions for 90 days, prohibiting institutional and commercial buyers from purchasing petrol and diesel at retail outlets, capping diesel sales at 200 litres per customer per day, and banning resale to curb bulk diversion and ensure fuel availability.
6. The Government has exempted E22, E25, E27 and E30 ethanol-blended petrol from excise duty to eliminate double taxation on the ethanol component and accelerate India’s biofuel blending programme
7. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.93% YoY in May from 3.48% in April, but came in below the market expectation of 4.02%
8. India’s Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) market is projected to grow to USD 150 billion by FY30, driven by strong domestic demand, PLI-led manufacturing expansion, and global supply chain diversification away from China.
9. India’s Agriculture Ministry budget has risen to about ₹1.4 lakh crore in FY27, marking a roughly five-fold increase since 2013-14, driven by higher spending on farmer income support, subsidies, and key schemes like PM-KISAN.
10. The Government has extended the CGSMFI-2.0 Credit Guarantee Scheme for Microfinance Institutions until August 31, 2026 or until ₹20,000 crore of guarantees are issued
11. The President of India has approved the merger of REC Ltd into Power Finance Corporation (PFC)
12. Government sources indicate that the Centre is open to inviting fresh financial bids for the proposed sale of IDBI Bank
13. The Indian mutual fund industry reported net equity inflows of ₹22,897 crore in May 2026, down from ₹38,426 crore in April 2026, indicating some moderation in investor appetite after a strong previous month.
14. Major upstream producers including Oil India Limited, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited (HOEC) and Vedanta Limited have reportedly urged the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) to remove restrictions preventing integration of common-carrier and regional gas pipelines.
15. RBI to inject ₹75,000 crore via overnight VRR auction on June 15.
16. Dhan has launched access to U.S. stocks and ETFs through the GIFT City route, enabling Indian investors to invest in securities listed on the Nasdaq and NYSE under a structure compliant with RBI and FEMA regulations.

International news:

1. US May CPI showed headline inflation at 4.2% YoY (vs 3.8% prior) and core inflation at 2.9% YoY (vs 2.8% prior), while monthly inflation slowed to 0.5% headline and 0.2% core, indicating easing inflation momentum.
2. Meta Platforms, Inc. has reportedly entered into an agreement with Reliance Industries Limited to lease its first AI-enabled data center in India
3. The United States Department of Defense (Pentagon) has added Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc., and BYD Company to its list of “Chinese Military Companies” (CMC), alleging that they directly or indirectly support China’s military-industrial ecosystem.
4. Anthropic has expanded access to Mythos, its advanced AI system designed for cybersecurity applications, making it available to approximately 200 carefully vetted organizations
5. China is reportedly planning a massive AI data center expansion worth approximately $295 billion
6. Brazilian aerospace major Embraer has intensified its campaign to win the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) upcoming Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) program, with its C-390 Millennium emerging as one of the leading contenders

7. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company is collaborating with LG Electronics on humanoid robots and AI data-center technologies.

8. S. debt hits record $39 trillion, doubling in under 10 years.
9. LinkedIn launches Creator Marketplace to connect brands with creators, challenging rival influencer platforms.
10. S. Central Command: Strait of Hormuz remains open for international trade & shipping.

Nifty in its second week of June series & broader markets are showing possibility of bottom formation with possible deal of US-Iran. In Nifty immediate crucial supports have shifted higher at 23000 while on the upside immediate potential upside could range from immediate at 24100 above which 24600 & ultimately in this entire June series 25000 could be an ultimate target zone. FII’s net index longs remain at 10% (improved from 7.58%) while net shorts remain at 2.44 lacs (declined from 2.78 lacs). This possible broader move could continue to come from Bank Nifty & may now followed by Reliance Industries & IT Sector upto somehow.

Bank Nifty may continue to show strength which may extend its immediate rally towards further upgraded target of 58000-59000 in June series while supports have shifted further higher at 53800-54000 kind of levels. The support may now come from Private & Public sector banks.

“Nifty IT” may continue to find its crucial support at 26000-27000 kind of levels while a upmove may get restricted at 31000-32000 as of now.

In Sensex crucial supports have shifted higher at 73000-73500 range while immediate target could be towards 78000-79000 kind of levels in June 2026 series.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at 24700-25000 kind of levels upside immediate target still lies at 27000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 22.9 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23622.90
Nifty Potential Upside: 24100 / 24600 / 25000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23000

Sensex CMP: 75527.95
Sensex Potential Upside: 78000-79000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 73000-73500

Bank Nifty CMP:  56814.80
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 58000-59000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 53800-54000

Nifty Financial CMP: 25056.80
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 24000-24500

Nifty IT CMP: 27795.75
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 31000-32000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stocks on Radar:

Large Cap.:

1) Reliance Industries (CMP 1293): This large-cap could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of US-Iran deal as a Oil producer. One can accumulate here at CMP 1293 with strict SL placed at 1250 for a potential upside towards 1380-1420 on an immediate basis.

2) Jio Financials (CMP 236): Another large-cap from NBFC counter looks good to add here at CMP 236 with strict SL placed at 200 one can expect a potential upside towards 260-280 on an immediate basis.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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