“MAY’26 BROUGHT MACRO CHALLENGES BUT JUNE MAY OFFER OPPORTUNITY FALLING BRENT CRUDE STRENGTHENS THE CASE FOR NIFTY 25,000”

The month of May has passed with macro’s affecting the broader movement of the markets starting with US-Iran-Israel war issues escalating the Crude oil prices & shortage of supply directly leading to insignificant rise in Inflation hence putting pressure on the entire markets as the supply chain disrupts. June is highly likely to absorb the absurdity of Trump comments over war & its compromises & Crude is likely to remain stable within 90-100$ while in case the war ends then a cool off towards 80-85$ remains highly likely which will strengthen the entire market.

US markets made another ATH but Indian markets still remains under non-stop indigenous pressure as the MSCI rebalancing on 29^th May puts additional pressure on the broader markets which bleed to sudden death. What’s driving this pressure? Well it’s the risk of Inflation due to continuous shortage of Crude Oil followed by high chances of Super Elnino arising which may additionally affect the Food inflation in India. India has already posted high WPI data for the month of April which resulted at 8.30% vs 3.30 MoM. And in the month of May India has already increased price of domestic petrol & diesel followed by ATF almost three times. All these indicates that inflation is no the thing of the imaginative future but its now into among us & could becomes worse if Super Elnino comes effective.

Nifty once again gave a nominal negative close at 23547.75 with nominal loss of 0.72% for the week while Bank Nifty remained into positive territory with marginal gains of 0.34%. Investors / Traders remained indecisive due to uncertainty & continuous market pressure due to FII’s massive selling.

FII’s remained aggressive sellers across the board with massive sell off of almost Rs. 23,734.68 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyers with net buying of Rs. 25,803.45 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 2.01 lacs contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

So far since the war between US-Iran-Israel begin it not only put Global Equities at risk but also other asset classes. But since this war is not likely to end very soon & speculations & exchange of comments are highly likely to remain intact, we expect its major repercussions may now gradually come to affect least the Equity markets & a gradual up move may soon begin in the entire Indian Equity markets.

For broader markets to ascertain the possible positive momentum few key major factors are likely to be considered & are likely to top out soon. So, far we have so many mix data developments across the board which has been the reason for volatility in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee: As RBI intervened with dollar swat auction to stabilize the Rupee it recovered towards 94.961 to give a decisive close at 95.010 we continue to expect the positive flow towards a cooling zone of 93 in few weeks’ time frame.
2. Dollar Index: It may remain into consolidation zone near to 98-100$ range.
3. Brent Crude oil: Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 89.78 $ per barrel to give a decisive close at 91.37$ it completed out first zone of 90$ we continue to expect it to further make low’s near to 80-85$ per barrel in June series.
4. FII’s Remained Seller: FII once again remained on the sell side & it doesn’t look like any kind of easing up as of now. Not a good sign. But net index shorts hit higher at 2.38 lacs possible cool off has begun & settled last week at 2.01 lacs.

Nifty in May series remained under pressure of Macros but in June 2026 series we are highly likely to offer big opportunities to enter high’s. Nifty on the lower end crucial support now once again remains at 23000-23250 while on the upside 24600 could be an immediate target zone while any move above this could give us 24900-25300 kind of levels in June series itself. The support could continue to come from Bank Nifty & IT Sector both but a magic hand of Reliance may come along.

Meanwhile Bank Nifty may now find its crucial support levels at 54000 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 followed by 58000 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like has finally came near to support levels of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from hereonwards as earlier anticipated so hit 30000 almost & it may continue to rise towards 33000 kind of levels very soon.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 89.78 $ per barrel to give a decisive close at 91.37$ it completed out first zone of 90$ we continue to expect it to further make low’s near to 80-85$ per barrel in June series.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 89.78 $ per barrel to give a decisive close at 91.37$ it completed out first zone of 90$ we continue to expect it to further make low’s near to 80-85$ per barrel in June series.

• The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
• Rupee may continue to cool off towards 93.
• Dollar Index may remain into consolidation mode within the range of 98-100.
• Brent crude as earlier anticipated it cooled off towards 89.78 $ per barrel to give a decisive close at 91.37$ it completed out first zone of 90$ we continue to expect it to further make low’s near to 80-85$ per barrel in June series.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 15-16% & a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 23000-23250 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Jane Street may explore a Singapore-based route to resolve its India tax dispute, potentially using treaty and regulatory frameworks for settlement discussions.
2. India raised petrol prices by ₹2.61/litre and diesel by ₹2.71/litre, marking the fourth fuel price hike in under two weeks amid elevated crude oil pressures.
3. ONGC has onboarded a technical services provider for its Western Offshore fields to enhance production using advanced technology and recovery methods, aiming to improve output from mature assets and strengthen domestic oil and gas production.
4. Trident Limited announced the resignation of CFO Avneesh Barua, with the leadership transition expected to trigger the process for appointing a new finance head.
5. India’s foreign exchange reserves declined to $681.38 billion from $688.89 billion in the previous reporting period, indicating a decrease of $7.51 billion in reserves.
6. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has imposed penalties totaling nearly ₹29 crore on Suzlon Energy for presenting a misleading picture of the company’s profitability, net worth, and financial position over multiple years.
7. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved the appointment of Upma Chawdhry as the Chairperson of the Governing Board of the Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India.
8. The government has allowed companies to allocate up to 10% of their CSR expenditure to zero-coupon, zero-principal instruments issued by not-for-profit organisations through the Social Stock Exchange, aiming to improve transparency in CSR funding and expand funding avenues for social welfare projects.
9. Kwality Wall’s plans to make its entire product portfolio milk-based by next year, according to CEO Peter ter Kulve
10. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has entered into a strategic partnership with Mistral AI to offer Mistral Forge to enterprises globally, with the collaboration focused on enabling enterprises and governments to develop and deploy domain-specific AI systems and establishing a dedicated Centre of Excellence to support scalable AI innovation.
11. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Steel Users Federation of India (SUFI) to jointly develop and expand the steel and related commodity derivatives market in India
12. India has emerged as the second-largest data center market in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting growing digital infrastructure development and increasing demand for data storage and processing capacity.
13. The Supreme Court of India has upheld the 28% GST on online gaming, dismissing industry petitions challenging the Centre’s retrospective tax demands of ₹1.5 trillion, marking a significant setback for gaming companies.
14. Byju’s founder Byju Raveendran has been sentenced to six months in jail by a Singapore court for contempt of court
15. India’s 10-Year Government Bond Yield Declines to 6.9809% From 6.9943%

International news:

1. The United States has dismantled and sanctioned an Iran-based procurement network led by Ali Majd Sepehr that allegedly defrauded dozens of American technology companies of millions of dollars through fake websites and intermediary firms to acquire restricted technology for Iran’s defense sector, while also highlighting a standing reward of up to $15 million for information disrupting the financial networks of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
2. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States has seized nearly $1 billion in cryptocurrency linked to Iran as part of its financial pressure campaign
3. The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed 3.4% to $82.4 billion in April, as goods exports rose by $8.5 billion to $219.7 billion, outpacing a $5.6 billion increase in goods imports to $302.1 billion.
4. Donald Trump announced the lifting of the naval blockade and stated that no financial payments or exchanges would take place until further notice.
5. China has launched a major crackdown on money and assets held overseas, targeting billions of dollars in offshore transactions as it tightens financial controls and increases oversight on cross-border investments.
6. SpaceX has reportedly lowered its IPO valuation target to at least $1.8 trillion, indicating a more conservative valuation approach amid evolving market conditions and investor sentiment.
7. Anthropic has raised fresh funding at a reported valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI in valuation for the first time, with major investments from Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia Capital, as well as participation from Google and Amazon
8. Worthington Steel has raised $1.4 billion to support its takeover of Klöckner & Co, advancing its expansion strategy in the steel industry.
9. S. Military carries out ‘self-defence’ strikes in Iran, including on missile launch sites
10. Indonesia is set to unveil its commodity export policy within weeks, a move that could influence global supply dynamics for key exports such as nickel, coal and palm oil.
11. Iran said it will not impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over potential disruptions and added costs for global oil and LNG trade flows.
12. Jane Street may explore a Singapore-based route to resolve its India tax dispute, potentially using treaty and regulatory frameworks for settlement discussions.

Nifty in May series remained under pressure of Macros but in June 2026 series we are highly likely to offer big opportunities to enter high’s. Nifty on the lower end crucial support now once again remains at 23000-23250 while on the upside 24600 could be an immediate target zone while any move above this could give us 24900-25300 kind of levels in June series itself. The support could continue to come from Bank Nifty & IT Sector both but a magic hand of Reliance may come along.

Meanwhile Bank Nifty may now find its crucial support levels at 54000 kind of levels & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 followed by 58000 kind of levels. The support may come from Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like has finally came near to support levels of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from hereonwards as earlier anticipated so hit 30000 almost & it may continue to rise towards 33000 kind of levels very soon.

Sensex may now find its crucial support at 73000-74000 kind of levels while on the upside we may see a pull back towards 81000-82000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at lower levels of 24000-24500 kind of levels upside immediate target lies at 27000 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23547.75
Nifty Potential Upside: 24000 / 24600 / 24900-25300 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23000-23250

Sensex CMP: 74775.74
Sensex Potential Upside: 81000-82000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 73000-74000

Bank Nifty CMP:  54853.85
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 56700-57000 / 58000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 54000

Nifty Financial CMP: 25354
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27000
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 24000-24500

Nifty IT CMP: 29080.15
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000 / 33000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• ICICI Bank (CMP 1256): This large-cap private banking counter looks good to add here at CMP 1256 with strict SL placed at 1215 for an immediate upside potential towards 1300-1320.
• HDFC Bank (CMP 744): Another large-cap private sector bank looks good to add here at CMP 744 with strict SL placed at 715 for a potential upside towards 800-810.
• TCS (CMP 2258): As the IT sector & its giant came near to their respective long term support levels we expect it to rise towards 2800 within 3 months’ time frame from CMP 2258 with SL placed at 1900.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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