MARKETS NEAR CRUCIAL DEMAND ZONES NIFTY 23400–23500 | BANK NIFTY 54600

Sometimes its “Strait of Hormuz”, sometimes its Ceasefire, sometimes its mines, sometimes its crude oil support disruption, etc. this chain never stops as Trump continues to change its comments overnight & it looks like one man is controlling all things together starting from commodities like crude oil prices, followed by precious metals then currency prices & ultimately Global Stock markets. But on the larger scale data remains the crucial play here as uncertain news items remains contra play a decisive directional play can be grabbed via data driven strategies.

FII’s after a breather previous to last week once again turned aggressive sellers across the board with massive sell off of almost Rs. 17,139.86 cr. last week while DII’s remained net buyer’s with net buying of Rs. 9,782.05 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 2.04 lac contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

So, far we have so many mix data developments across the board which has been the reason for volatility in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

• Rupee: Rupee after rising towards 92.444 fell once again at 94.250. As of now it remains a neutral factor here but a marginal pressure on banking sector could possibly be seen.
• Dollar Index: This could remain on a neutral stance near to 98 zone.
• Brent Crude oil: As of now the uncertainty continues to loom on opening of Strait of Hormuz the Brent Crude oil may loom within wider range of 99-108$ per barrel.
• FII’s Remained Seller: FII once again remained on the sell side & it doesn’t look like any kind of easing up as of now. Not a good sign.

Nifty has finally shown some profit booking from the crucial levels of 24600 which has now acted as immediate hurdle zone. In the coming week as well, it may continue to act as an immediate hurdle zone. Now major upside seen till it remains below 24600 while on the downside it may hit the crucial support zones of 23400-23500 kind of levels. There are high chances that Nifty may respect these levels as crucial support zones in the coming week ahead. And a meaningful reversal from those levels could be seen towards 24000-24300 kind of levels initially. The support this time may come from Bank Nifty.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty may find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels  & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 kind of levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Brent crude may now remain within new wider range of 99-108$ per barrel for the coming week & if anything major comes in in the geopolitical issue then a cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame could become a possibility.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude may now remain within new wider range of 99-108$ per barrel for the coming week & if anything major comes in in the geopolitical issue then a cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame could become a possibility.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now cool off towards 93.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 95-98 kind of levels.

• Brent crude may now remain within new wider range of 99-108$ per barrel for the coming week & if anything major comes in in the geopolitical issue then a cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame could become a possibility.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 20-21% & a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 23400-23500 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Axis Bank Q4 Results: The private lender said that it will host an earnings call with analysts and investors at 6:00 p.m. (IST) on April 25

2. FIIs pulled out nearly ₹45,000 crore from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank in Q4 due to war situation and no visible future.

3. RBL Bank’s Nomination and Remuneration Committee approved grant of 3,11,000 stock options to eligible employees under ESOP 2013 and ESOP 2018 schemes at exercise price of Rs. 317.65 per option.

4. Rajesh Kumar Agarwal takes charge as Director at PFC, He has and experience of 30 years in power sector.

5. Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT)’s capex for enhancing fertilizer manufacturing capacity and strengthening production at its Cochin Division got approal from Gov.

6. Lodha Developers has declared a dividend of ₹4.25 per share for its shareholders.

7. RBI canceled Paytm Payments Bank license for not complying, but One97 Comm. has said that they don’t have relation with Paytm right now.

8. Bandhan Bank’s Nomination and Remuneration Committee approved 10,000 equity stock options at Rs. 176.13 per option to eligible employee under ESOP Series 1 on April 22, 2026.

9. Power Grid Corporation of India Limited has successfully formed a joint venture with Africa50 for the Kenya Transmission PPP Project.

10. One 97 Communications (Paytm) has clarified that it has no business exposure to Paytm Payments Bank Limited (PPBL) and had already fully impaired its investment in the entity in 2024. All Paytm services—包括 UPI, QR codes, Soundbox, Paytm Money, and the main app—remain fully operational and unaffected by the recent RBI action on PPBL.

11. Reliance Industries (RIL): In its Q4 results, the conglomerate reported a rise in revenue, though profit saw a slight decline.

12. Forex Reserves: India’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $703 billion, even as the Rupee slipped 14 paise.

13. Credit Growth: Domestic credit flows jumped 38% in FY26, driven by the RBI’s easing measures which boosted market demand.

14. Banking Rules: Kotak Mahindra Bank has implemented mandatory two-factor authentication (OTP or MPIN) for specific transactions to enhance security.

 International news:

1. US economy shows strength in data, yet Americans sense a recession, per WSJ.

2. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will not hold direct talks with the United States during his visit to Islamabad, regional outlet Tasnim reports

3. Iran’s foreign minister will convey Tehran’s core considerations for ending the war, emphasizing a “conclusive and lasting” end rather than a temporary ceasefire, Tasnim reports. The FM is expected to outline Iran’s conditions, including demands related to attacks on Iran, sanctions relief, compensation, and regional security guarantees.

4. US oil prices have slipped to intraday lows near $93 per barrel, reflecting easing near‑term supply concerns despite ongoing Middle East tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading around $93–$94, down roughly 1–2.5% on the session

5. Market Trends & AI Optimism: AI-driven optimism is pushing South Korean stocks to record highs. Conversely, Japanese and South Korean markets have recently faced volatility due to geopolitical jitters, though some sectors saw a rally following gains in the U.S. tech sector.

6. China’s Economic Policy: China has slowed its fiscal stimulus measures as its economy appears to be holding up despite the regional war. However, Beijing has warned that U.S. export bills regarding semiconductors risk disrupting global chip supply chains.

7. The U.S. has sanctioned the massive Chinese refiner Hengli over its alleged links to Iran.

8. DeepSeek has previewed a new AI model specifically adapted to run on Huawei chips, signalling a deepening of domestic tech integration in China

9. S.-Iran Peace Talks in Pakistan: White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are traveling to Islamabad for a second round of peace talks aimed at ending the ongoing war. While the U.S. expects to receive an Iranian “peace offer,” Tehran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no direct meeting is currently planned, with messages likely being conveyed through Pakistani intermediaries.

10. Gaza Local Elections: In a historic move, Palestinians are participating in local elections that include Gaza for the first time in two decades. The Palestinian Authority hopes this will reinforce its governance claims over the territory following the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Octo

11. K. Move Against IRGC: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans to introduce legislation within weeks to proscribe Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, following similar moves by the EU.

12. Green Energy Investment: Australian mining giant Fortescue has committed $680 million to develop green energy infrastructure in the Pilbara region. The company is accelerating its shift away from fossil fuels to protect itself from global oil market volatility.

13. Tech Regulation in Brazil: Brazil’s antitrust watchdog, CADE, has approved a deeper probe into Alphabet’s Google regarding its use of journalistic content and potential abuse of market dominance.

14. BRICS-MENA Summit: Envoys from BRICS and Middle Eastern nations met in New Delhi to express “deep concern” over the humanitarian and regional stability impacts of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

Nifty has finally shown some profit booking from the crucial levels of 24600 which has now acted as immediate hurdle zone. In the coming week as well, it may continue to act as an immediate hurdle zone. Now major upside seen till it remains below 24600 while on the downside it may hit the crucial support zones of 23400-23500 kind of levels. There are high chances that Nifty may respect these levels as crucial support zones in the coming week ahead. And a meaningful reversal from those levels could be seen towards 24000-24300 kind of levels initially. The support this time may come from Bank Nifty.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty may find its crucial support levels of 54000-54600 kind of levels  & from those levels a meaningful upside can be seen towards 56700-57000 kind of levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” looks like this time make go further lower towards the level of 26000-27000 kind of levels to finally close this correction journey & from those levels we may get the pull back towards 30000-31000 kind of levels.

Sensex may find its crucial support within crucial support levels of 74700-75000 kind of levels while on the upside we may see a pull back towards 78000-79000 kind of levels.
Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels now at lower levels of 25200-25700 kind of levels upside immediate target lies at 26500-26700 kind of levels.
As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026.

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23897.95
Nifty Potential Upside / Hurdle: 24000-24300 / 24600 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23400-23500

Sensex CMP: 76664.21
Sensex Potential Upside / Hurdle: 78000-79000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 74700-75000

Bank Nifty CMP:  56089.75
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 56700-57000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 54000-54600

Nifty Financial CMP: 26141.75
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 26500-26700
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25200-25700

Nifty IT CMP: 28530.60
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 30000-31000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-27000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Airtel (CMP 1814): This large-cap counter looks like has been sideways lately. Looks good to add at CMP 1814 with strict SL placed at 1740 for a potential upside towards 2000 on an immediate basis.

• Voltas (CMP 1464): As the temperature rises in India AC demand is set to rise soon. This counter looks good to add here at CMP 1464 with strict SL placed at 1250 for a potential upside towards 1800 in 2 months time frame.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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