NIFTY LIKELY TO ENTER “STRAIT OF HORMUZ” ZONE BANK NIFTY 57700 NEXT?

US-Israel-Iran have finally announced opening of “Strait of Hormuz” once in for all but flattered by multiple statement on weekend which still doesn’t confirms anything yet & this nuisance may initially show Nifty hitting 25000-25300 as Hormuz levels but a strong profit booking may emerge due to all the nuisance by the Do-land Trump. This could bring Nifty back towards 24000-24300 kind of levels. However, Bank Nifty may follow the route towards 57700.

So, far we have seen many positive developments across the board which has been the reason for rise in Equities across the globe. Rupee, crude oil, Dollar Index, etc. Let’s dig it out one by one:

1. Rupee:Rupee has been a crucial play where a rise towards 92.444 has shown possible recovery not only in Bank Nifty but also in Nifty. A key positive factor here.

2. Dollar Index:A pause & a cool off towards 97.63 in this has been a positive sign here for the broader markets.

3. Brent Crude oil:As Strait of Hormuz is likely to open now Brent crude oil prices declined drastically towards 86.09 to give a close at 90.38$ per barrel.

4. FII’s Returned:This too has been major factor where not only FII’s stopped selling but also initiated marginal buying into the Indian equity markets & covered there net short positions in index from 2.79 lacs to now at 1.91 lacs only within a span of 13 trading sessions only.

As earlier mentioned, Nifty on weekly charts formed DOJI followed by Morning Star kind of pattern subsequent to last week & in last week it has shown follow on buying of the same pattern. And it is highly likely that the same trend may continue in the coming week as well where Nifty may hit “Strait of Hormuz” (25000-25300) once in for all & may show strong profit booking from those levels towards 24000-24300 kind of levels. Any further sell off may have last possibility of 23500 kind of levels below which would be mayhem (least possibility). But somehow it is expected to only a profit booking towards 24000-24300 kind of levels. This time too the support may come from Bank Nifty, Real Estate sector & Reliance Industries.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty may celebrate the cool off in Crude oil towards 86.09$ per barrel which may now result in an immediate target of 57700 kind of levels in Bank Nifty from those levels a profit booking could not be ruled out which may come towards 53400-54000 kind of levels on an immediate basis. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” on the other hand may result in may hit 33500 kind of levels in the coming weeks ahead while crucial supports have shifted further higher at 30000 kind of levels.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated cooled off & now settled well on the lower end of the channel at 90 i.e. 90.38$ as of now while low made 86.06$ per barrel. We further cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame.

However, FII’s are now finally trying to turn the table but yet marginal sell off came from them last week i.e. Rs. 251.47 cr. while March month remains a massive sell off with Rs.1,22,540.41 cr. in the month of March 2026 which remains biggest sell off after Covid’19 crash of March’20. Meanwhile DII’s now became biggest supporter of the entire move with massive buying of Rs.1,42,960.37 cr. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 1.91 lac contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent crude as earlier anticipated cooled off & now settled well on the lower end of the channel at 90 i.e. 90.38$ as of now while low made 86.06$ per barrel. We further cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now become stable within the range of 90-92.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 95-98 kind of levels.

• Brent crude as earlier anticipated cooled off & now settled well on the lower end of the channel at 90 i.e. 90.38$ as of now while low made 86.06$ per barrel. We further cool off towards 72-80$ per barrel in next 3-6 weeks’ time frame.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 23-24% & a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 24000-24300 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Adani’s Mumbai Project: The Adani Group has announced a massive ₹1 trillion investment plan for the redevelopment of Motilal Nagar in Mumbai, marking it as one of the largest urban renewal projects in the country.

2. UltraTech Milestone: UltraTech Cement has officially crossed 200 MTPA (Million Tonnes Per Annum) of installed capacity in India after adding a new 8.7 MTPA unit.

3. Gold Market Trends: Gold prices are hovering near the $5,000 mark. Analysts suggest “buying on dips” as geopolitical tensions in West Asia show signs of cooling, though the metal remains a preferred hedge

4. AI Cybersecurity Risks: Financial officials at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings warned that advanced AI models could pose significant cybersecurity risks to the global banking infrastructure.

5. Ashwagandha Ban: India has banned ashwagandha leaf-based products due to safety risks, a move expected to disrupt the $38 billion nutraceutical industry.

6. India’s Wheat Exports: Backed by a record harvest, the Indian government is set to double its wheat export quotas to stabilize global supply strains

7. Private Life Insurers: Q4 margins for private life insurers have reportedly been impacted by GST and policy tweaks, leading to a dip in profitability.

8. AI vs. Traditional Banking: New ET Prime analysis suggests AI is rapidly reshaping the lending landscape, posing a significant competitive threat to traditional banks that are slower to adopt automated risk assessment.

9. Pune airport’s runway is temporarily unavailable due to an incident involving an IAF aircraft, though the aircrew are safe and there is no damage to civil property.

10. Gold Import Crisis: Indian banks have halted gold and silver import orders due to a delay in government authorization (DGFT). Over 5 tons of gold and 8 tons of silver are currently stuck at customs

11. India’s Foreign Ministry confirms receiving Seychelles’ request for energy supply.

12. India’s Foreign Ministry confirms invitation from UK and France to join Strait of Hormuz initiative.

13. Nuclear Ambitions: India’s CEA Chairperson announced a target to expand nuclear power capacity ten-fold, from 8.8 GW to 100 GW by 2047.

14. Women’s Reservation Bill: PM Modi addressed the Rajya Sabha ahead of a crucial vote, urging members not to “hurt the sentiments of Nari Shakti.”

15. Wipro announces ₹15,000 crore buyback of 60 crore shares at ₹250 each.

International news:

1. Trump admin reverses stance, issues 30-day license for India & others to keep buying Russian oil.

2. Pakistan Power Crisis: Power cuts in Pakistan have deepened as a slump in hydropower supply hits the national grid.

3. AI Cybersecurity Risks: Financial officials at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings warned that advanced AI models could pose significant cybersecurity risks to the global banking infrastructure.

4. Hong Kong Tech Debuts: Manycore Tech surged during its Hong Kong stock market debut. Executives noted a significant rise in the application of robotics and AI in the Chinese industrial sector.

5. TSMC’s AI Boost: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported strong results and a positive outlook, citing “insatiable” demand for AI-related chips.

6. Strait of Hormuz Reopens: Following a ceasefire in Lebanon, Iran has reopened the vital Strait of Hormuz. Oil and gas prices have tumbled globally (Brent crude falling to ~$90/barrel) as supply fears ease.

7. IMF Growth Projections: While India has nominally slipped to the 6th largest economy in recent estimates, it remains the fastest-growing major economy with a projected 6.5% Real GDP growth for 2026

8. Middle East Tensions: Despite a brief ceasefire, Israel’s Defence Minister stated that military operations against Hezbollah are “still not complete,” warning residents in Southern Lebanon of potential future evacuations.

9. Chicago Security: Authorities are investigating a bomb threat at the home of the Pope’s brother, John Prevost, in New Lenox, Illinois; no explosives were found during the initial search.

10. White House “Mythos” Access: The U.S. government is reportedly planning to provide federal agencies with access to Anthropic’s “Mythos” AI model. The move comes despite earlier contract disputes, with officials citing the model’s “unprecedented ability” to identify and fix critical software vulnerabilities.

11. Singapore Policy Tightening: Singapore has led the region in tightening its monetary policy to manage inflationary pressures, a move that is being closely watched by other central banks in Southeast Asia.

12. China’s Diplomatic Stance: Beijing has expressed opposition to unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and reiterated its “resolute support” for Cuba amidst ongoing U.S. pressure.

13. Trump signals uncertainty on Iran ceasefire, saying he may not extend it next week, warns of resuming strikes if needed, but adds “I think it’s gonna happen” on a deal.

14. Trump claims he ended 8 wars, and resolving conflicts in Iran and Lebanon would make it 10, crediting his leadership with saving countless lives.

15. Trump claims Iran agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to the US, calling it “nuclear dust” to be retrieved without any payment—possibly via joint operations with excavators at strike-damaged sites. Iran strongly denies this, with officials stating the uranium is “as sacred as Iranian soil” and won’t be handed over anywhere. This follows Trump’s recent signals of ceasefire uncertainty with Tehran.

16. Trump signals uncertainty on Iran ceasefire, saying he may not extend it next week, warns of resuming strikes if needed, but adds “I think it’s gonna happen” on a deal. 

As earlier mentioned, Nifty on weekly charts formed DOJI followed by Morning Star kind of pattern subsequent to last week & in last week it has shown follow on buying of the same pattern. And it is highly likely that the same trend may continue in the coming week as well where Nifty may hit “Strait of Hormuz” (25000-25300) once in for all & may show strong profit booking from those levels towards 24000-24300 kind of levels. Any further sell off may have last possibility of 23500 kind of levels below which would be mayhem (least possibility). But somehow it is expected to only a profit booking towards 24000-24300 kind of levels. This time too the support may come from Bank Nifty, Real Estate sector & Reliance Industries.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty may celebrate the cool off in Crude oil towards 86.09$ per barrel which may now result in an immediate target of 57700 kind of levels in Bank Nifty from those levels a profit booking could not be ruled out which may come towards 53400-54000 kind of levels on an immediate basis. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

“Nifty IT” on the other hand may result in may hit 33500 kind of levels in the coming weeks ahead while crucial supports have shifted further higher at 30000 kind of levels.

Sensex may hit 81000-81500 kind of levels afterwards a profit booking is expected towards 77500-78500 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels at 26000 while immediate target lies at 27700 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets have now increased to All Time High of Rs. 32,087 cr. per month as on March 2026. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24353.55
Nifty Potential Upside: 25000-25300
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 24000-24300

Sensex CMP: 78493.54
Sensex Potential Upside: 81000-81500
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 77500-78500

Bank Nifty CMP:  56086.40
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside: 57700
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 53500-54000

Nifty Financial CMP: 26343.55
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27700
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 26000

Nifty IT CMP: 31817.50
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 33500
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 30000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Cipla (CMP 1241): This large-cap Pharma sector looks good to add at CMP 1241 for apossible target towards 1350-1400 with nominal strict SL of 1160.

• Ambuja Cements (CMP 459): This reality sector counter looks good to add here at CMP 459 with strict SL placed at 420 for a possible target towards 490-500 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

 About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 14+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
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