SECTORAL STRENGTH DRIVES UPSIDE: BANK NIFTY HITS BIGGEST WEEKLY GAIN IN 5 YEARS NIFTY IN VIEW FOR 24,500

It’s a massive week for the entire markets last week. Wherein Nifty not only climbed more than 1500 points rising nearly 1531 points from its weekly low’s of 2252.92 i.e. 6.79% in a single week while Bank nifty made biggest weekly gain in last 5 years with net gain of 8.47% WoW basis rising nearly 4364 points in a week. Followed by incline in rupee from 95.220 to the low’s of 92.313 biggest gain in history. Brent oil declined from 119.50$ to as low as 90.40$ per barrel in just 2-3 week’s time frame.

After forming DOJI in previous to last week Nifty & Bank Nifty both formed a trend reversal pattern called “Morning Star” which now resembles that as of now Bottom has been made & this market is now clearly of Buy on Dips markets. Wherein bottom formed at 22000-22200 kind of levels while crucial supports shifted higher within the crucial range of 23000-23200 kind of levels while we may now head for 24500-24600 kind of levels on the upside on an immediate basis.

Brent crude as earlier anticipated cooled off & now settled well on the lower end of the channel at 95.20. We continue to expect crude oil to remain within the new possible range of 90-103$ per barrel now any side breach would decide the further trend inn here.

However, FII’s continuously remained on the sell side which hit’s record high of massive Rs.1,22,540.41 cr. in the month of March 2026 which remains biggest sell off after Covid’19 crash of March’20. Meanwhile DII’s now became biggest supporter of the entire move with massive buying of Rs.1,42,960.37 cr.FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week net shorts now at 2.06 lac contracts it may now looks like positive bias from FII’s is likely to come.

Precious metals once again shown strength as geopolitical issues rise again. Earlier Gold corrected nearly 24.67% from its recent highs of 180779 to hit a low of 136185 a biggest decline in a single week while it now remained inline with nominal gain last week while in Silver which made highs of 420048 & gave a vertical dive towards 225805 a single-handed fall of nearly 46.25% a biggest fall in the history within 2 weeks’ time frame. This sell off may now once again show further weakness towards 1.70 lacs in silver & 1.34 lacs in Gold on MCX within next few months.

FII’s have been into net sell in 9 months out of 12 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

As the geopolitical issues continue to rise as US-Israel-Iran war leads a continuous decline in Rupee which hit all time low of 94.988 followed by inconsistent government policies into taxation in the capital markets & other things. Add on burden on the markets in respect to STT rate hike continuous pressure on FnO volumes reduction.

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

Last week Nifty finally formed bottom while forming Morning Star kind of pattern on Weekly charts. Which denotes at last bottom has been formed at every dip remains a good buying opportunity. Wherein intermediate support now lies at 23700 while any break below this may show us our positional support level of 23000-23200 kind of levels while on the upside immediate potential remains 24500-24600 kind of levels. Any breach above this could show us 25000-25200 kind of levels.This time too the support may come from Bank Nifty, Real Estate sector & Reliance Industries.

However, Bank Nifty despite the sell off by FII’s of Rs. 60,655 cr. worth of equities into the financial sector a possible buying could take it towards 57000-57700 kind of levels from CMP 55912.75 while crucial supports remain at 54500kind of levels followed by 52700-53500 as an ultimate support levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support now shifted higher at 29000 kind of levels while recovery could be seen towards 32800-33300 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward& now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2026-27 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent Crude may formed double top at 119-120$ per barrel levels no major upside seen till it sustains below this. Meanwhile, initial support range remains stagnant at 90-103 kind of levels

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may now become stable within the range of 90-92.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 100-101 kind of levels.

• Brent Crude may formed double top at 119-120$ per barrel levels no major upside seen till it sustains below this. Meanwhile, initial support range remains stagnant at 95-105 kind of levels.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 21-23%& a recovery is possible towards 27% till the coming weekendwhich continuously signifies &now support could be within the range of23000-23200 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Wipro to consider first share buyback inn 5 years on april 16th with thw Q4 results.

2. Poonawalla Fin 2500cr QIP launched, floor pricce to be 390.26

3. Eicher launched its first ever EV bike.

4. IDFC 590cr Scam, authority suspends 2 IAS.

5. Power demand is increasing and with this it will pull demand for coal and power sector, despite of govt saying it has reserves.

6. India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh ‌Puri will make an official visit ​to Qatar ​on April 9 and ⁠10, authorities ​in New Delhi ​said on Thursday, as India ​reels from disruptions to LPG ‌supply.

7. Pushpender Singh, the Deputy Vice-president of Kotak Mahindra Bank got arrested, related to FD case.

8. Because of temporary rates in the forex market, to stabalize the market, due to this Onshore hedging costs have climbed to a three-year high, while dollar-rupee implied volatility has surged to the highest level in four years. Banks have also taken a hit, with Jefferies estimating system-wide losses of around ₹5,000 crore.

9. India Launches ₹7,280 Crore Scheme to Build Domestic Rare Earth Magnet Manufacturing Capacity

10. Due to war, Indian Rupee has fallen, which is creating a hurdle for Travel Fintechs, and possitive for exports and IT

11. PFC sanctions Rs 3,517 crore loan to East Rail Corridor Project in Chhattisgarh on 3rd, but had a huge impact on 4th market

12. Renewable Energy: The Cabinet approved two massive hydroelectric projects in Arunachal Pradesh with a combined investment of over ₹40,000 crore.

13. TCS reports first-ever YoY dollar revenue decline since 2004 listing

14. Bombay High Court rules Reliance’s ₹1100 crore demand by MMRDA invalid

 International news:

1. S. GDP Revision: The U.S. Commerce Department revised the Q4 GDP growth down to an annualized rate of 0.5% (from previous estimates of 0.7% and 1.4%). The slowdown is attributed to lower business investment and inventories, though corporate profits saw a sharp rise.

2. China-Taiwan Relations: In a rare diplomatic move, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Taiwan’s opposition KMT leader, Cheng Li-wun, in Beijing. Xi expressed “full confidence” in the eventual unification of the two sides.

3. World Bank Growth Forecast: The World Bank has raised India’s growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.6%, citing strong domestic demand and recent trade agreements. However, it warned of potential headwinds due to energy price volatility stemming from the Middle East conflict.

4. Israel-Lebanon Conflict: Israel conducted what it termed its “largest coordinated strike” on Lebanon. Diplomatic efforts are underway, with the UK insisting that Lebanon must be included in any broader ceasefire agreement.

5. Italy Proposes EU Budget Pause: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has urged the EU to consider a temporary suspension of budget deficit rules (the Stability and Growth Pact) if the Middle East crisis persists, citing the severe impact on energy prices and GDP growth.

6. Tencent Buyback: In financial news, Tencent bought back 2 million shares for approximately HK$1 billion, according to HKEX filings reported by Reuters.

7. China Trade Investigations: In response to U.S. tariff moves, China has opened investigations into several U.S. trade practices, further escalating the ongoing trade friction as preparations begin for a potential Trump-Xi summit in Paris.

8. World Bank Projection: The World Bank raised India’s FY27 GDP growth projection to 6.6%, though it cautioned that the ongoing West Asia conflict remains a significant downside risk.

9. North Korea: Tensions remain high in East Asia after North Korea fired a missile that flew over 700 kilometers, landing outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

10. Global Relief Rally: European and Asian markets surged on the news of the ceasefire. The STOXX 600 jumped 3.6%, marking its best session in a year, while Germany’s DAX climbed 4.6% as energy supply fears eased.

11. S.-Iran Truce: Markets rallied sharply following a 14-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The Sensex jumped nearly 4% (over 500 points) in early trade.

12. Source‑on‑the‑ground reports say attacks have hit a Saudi Aramco petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, underscoring the risk to key Gulf energy infrastructure amid the ongoing regional conflict.

13. Vietnam’s New President: The National Assembly has elected Communist Party chief To Lam as the President of Vietnam, consolidating significant power.

14. China’s Leverage Play: Reports indicate the U.S. administration is considering seizing control of Iran’s oil sector not just as a military tactic, but to gain trade leverage against China by controlling a major energy source for the region.

 Nifty finally formed bottom while forming Morning Star kind of pattern on Weekly charts. Which denotes at last bottom has been formed at every dip remains a good buying opportunity. Wherein intermediate support now lies at 23700 while any break below this may show us our positional support level of 23000-23200 kind of levels while on the upside immediate potential remains 24500-24600 kind of levels. Any breach above this could show us 25000-25200 kind of levels.This time too the support may come from Bank Nifty, Real Estate sector & Reliance Industries.

However, Bank Nifty despite the sell off by FII’s of Rs. 60,655 cr. worth of equities into the financial sector a possible buying could take it towards 57000-57700 kind of levels from CMP 55912.75 while crucial supports remain at 54500 kind of levels followed by 52700-53500 as an ultimate support levels. The support may continue to come from both PSU & Private sector banks.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support now shifted higher at 29000 kind of levels while recovery could be seen towards 32800-33300 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

Sensex may continue to find its crucial support levels at 74000-75000 kind of levels in the coming week ahead while immediate target may now remain at 80000kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels at 25000 while immediate target lies at 27700kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 31,002 cr. per month as on December 2025. 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  24050.60
Nifty Potential Upside:24500-24600 / 25000-25200 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support:23700 / 23000-23200 (As the case may be)

Sensex CMP: 77550.25
Sensex Potential Upside: 80000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 74000-75000

Bank Nifty CMP:  55912.75
Bank Nifty Immediate Upside:57000-57700
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 52700-53500

Nifty Financial CMP: 26213.90
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27700
Nifty Financial Immediate Crucial Support: 25000

Nifty IT CMP: 31030.60
Nifty IT Immediate Target:32800-33300
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 29000

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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