INDIAN PORTFOLIO SO FAR HIT BY IRANIAN MISSILE NEXT WEEK NIFTY LIKELY TO HIT BY NORTH KOREAN MISSILE

Bears have ruled all across the board last week. US-Israel-Iran war has endangered the entire market wherein Iranian missile directly hit Indian portfolio’s last week while Nifty may highly likely to get hit by North Korean Missiles as well. Brent Crude Oil hit with a sudden spike towards 119.50$ & within same day made low of 83.66$ per barrel creating huge impact on the entire markets as well as on the Indian currency which hit a recent All Time Low of 92.572. So far US-Israel-Iran has took Nifty towards 23115.35 now North Korean missile which landed in Japanese waters may take Nifty towards further lows of 22800 in the coming week.

Nifty remains volatile as war continues to remain on higher grounds & FII’s now turned massive sellers. FII’s now once again turned the table where on 23^rd Jan.’26 was highest at 2.28 Lacs which eventually came down to as low as 1.03 lacs but closed the last week with net shorts risen to 2.61 lac contracts initially it looked like they may come with positive bias but the substantial form may now looks like incremental shorts have been created which means more pain could be seen ahead on the path on Dalaal Street.

The institutional investors FII’s were massive sellers with net sell of Rs. 35052.03 cr. worth of equities while DII’s remained massive net buyers with buying of Rs. 37,739.78 cr. FII’s remained marginal net sellers in the month of February 2026 with net outflow of Rs. 6,640.78 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 38,423.11 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets in February 2026 month.

Precious metals initially cooled off but now showing gains with possible geopolitical tensions once again arising from Israel-Iran issues escalates. Gold corrected nearly 24.67% from its recent highs of 180779 to hit a low of 136185 a biggest decline in a single week while it now remained inline with nominal gain last week while in Silver which made highs of 420048 & gave a vertical dive towards 225805 a single-handed fall of nearly 46.25% a biggest fall in the history within 2 weeks’ time frame. And now both the metals remained stable.

As the brent crude oil hit 119.50 $ per barrel & now gave a decisive close at 103.14$ per bareel which has also lead the consistent fall in rupee which hit all time low of 92.572 to finally give a weekly close at 92.540.

FII’s have been into net sell in 8 months out of 11 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.60% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

It has been more than 18 months now starting from October 2024 when Indian markets have consistently remained under pressure & each time some new news item comes to put the additional pressure on the domestic equity markets.

Last week Nifty made low’s of 23115.35 to give a close at 23151.10. In the coming week as well falling rupee & rising crude oil prices may continue to put pressure on the broader markets & Nifty may have a chance of hitting 22800 on the lower levels. However, this overall mayhem may come to an end with major crucial supports falling within the range of 22500-22800 kind of levels while immediate hurdle now lies within the broad range of 23800-24300 kind of levels. The coming week may show some relief rally from the lower crucial support levels towards the upper hurdles. And the relief rally could be initiated by Bank Nifty while Nifty IT may bring the support as rupee fall may benefit this sector but this support right now could only be for temporary impact.

Bank Nifty may find its crucial support within the range of 53000-53700 kind of levels while on the upside immediate hurdle could be seen within the range of 57000-57700 kind of levels. PSU banks may show some pressure this time while large-cap private banks may support the index.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support at within the range of 26000-28000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 32000-32800 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1, 8.20% in Q2 & 7.80% in Q3 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent Crude may as earlier anticipated hit 99-100$ with high’s of 119.50 per barrel but gave a decisive close at 103.14$. Meanwhile in this coming week it may remain neutral within the broad range of 90-105$ following US-Israel-Iran conflict.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee may continue to remain neutral in between 92-93 range.

• Dollar Index may remain neutral in between 100-101 kind of levels.

• Brent Crude may remain neutral within the broad range of 90-105$ following US-Israel-Iran conflict.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 10-11% & may further decline towards 7-8% while a recovery is possible towards 14-18% till the coming weekend which continuously signifies & now support could be within the range of 22500-22800 in Nifty.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. SEBI has appointed Sadanand S. Date as its new Executive Director, effective immediately.

2. SCI reports its tax demand has been revised down to ₹600.7 million from ₹1.6 billion following an appellate review.

3. G7 Response: G7 nations are reportedly standing by to unblock oil reserves as the “energy fuel crunch” begins to hit Asian economies.

4. Honda’s Major Writedown: Honda has announced a $15.7 billion (2.5 trillion yen) writedown of its electric vehicle business, citing significant challenges in the Chinese market and a restructuring of its U.S. operations. This move is expected to lead to the company’s first annual loss in 70 years.

5. Inflation Alert: Retail inflation hit a 10-month high of 3.2% in February, driven largely by a surge in food prices (notably tomatoes) and skyrocketing precious metal prices.

6. Economic Stabilisation Fund: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced an allocation of ₹57,381 crore to a new fund designed to provide fiscal “headroom” against global headwinds like the $100-per-barrel oil shock and supply chain disruptions.

7. Wealth Wipeout: Approximately ₹10 lakh crore of investor wealth was wiped out in a single session.

8. Vegetable Prices: In Delhi, premium items like Garlic (₹116/kg) and Ginger (₹77/kg) are seeing price hikes, while staples like Potatoes and Onions remain relatively stable.

9. India’s Manufacturing Push: The Indian government is expanding a $1.3 billion incentive program to boost smartphone exports. This follows reports that Apple’s suppliers in India increased iPhone production by over 50% in the last year.

10. Taxation: The Income Tax department is reportedly monitoring professionals receiving “crypto pay” for overseas gigs, categorizing it under moonlighting and tax evasion probes.

11. Economic Stabilisation Fund: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that a ₹1 lakh crore Economic Stabilisation Fund has been established to provide fiscal headroom and absorb shocks from global headwinds, specifically citing the ongoing West Asia crisis.

12. ED Searches: The Enforcement Directorate conducted raids at 19 locations regarding an alleged ₹590 crore embezzlement from Haryana government accounts.

13. Fertilizer Supply: The Fertilizer Association of India confirmed that urea and phosphatic fertilizer stocks are adequate for the upcoming Kharif season.

14. Insolvency Law Updates: The Union Cabinet has cleared major amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and companies laws following a recent panel review.

15. FDI Policy Shift: The Union Cabinet relaxed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rules for countries sharing land borders (notably China). Non-controlling stakes of up to 10% are now allowed via the “automatic route” to boost the manufacturing ecosystem.

16. Govt gearing up PM-KUSUM 2.0 with 10 GW agri-solar PV for co-locating panels with crops. (Shakti Pumps, Waaree Energies, Websol Energy, Borosil Renewables, Sterling & Wilson Renewable)

 International news:

1. The White House under President Trump is showing signs of frustration with Iran’s ongoing retaliation and threats to Gulf oil shipments amid the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. U.S. officials have reiterated readiness to protect the Strait of Hormuz, including potential military escorts for tankers and further strikes if disruptions continue.

2. Polymarket’s prediction market on “AI bubble burst by…?” currently prices a 17% chance of it occurring by December 31, 2026, based on real-time trader bets. This reflects collective sentiment amid AI stock volatility, with over $2.2 million in volume on that outcome.

3. President Trump stated on Fox News that he believes Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is “probably alive but damaged.” This follows U.S.-Israeli strikes killing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28, 2026, with Mojtaba assuming the role amid the ongoing war.

4. CNN reports that Russia is sharing advanced drone strike tactics with Iran, enabling precise attacks on U.S. targets in the Gulf region. This intelligence-sharing escalates tensions amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, with U.S. officials warning of heightened risks to American assets like naval ships and bases.

5. President Trump stated on Fox News that he believes Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is “probably alive but damaged.” This follows U.S.-Israeli strikes killing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28, 2026, with Mojtaba assuming the role amid the ongoing war.

6. Pentagon Investigation Elevates: The U.S. military has escalated its investigation into the February 28 strike on an Iranian girls’ school in Minab. Preliminary findings reported by Reuters suggest U.S. forces may have used outdated targeting data that failed to distinguish the school from a nearby military base.

7. Asian Equity Selloff: Stock markets across Tokyo, Seoul, and Sydney have seen significant downward pressure due to “war jitters” and fears that sustained oil supply disruptions will fuel global inflation.

8. Corporate Moves: Meta is reportedly planning to cut nearly 16,000 jobs as AI costs mount, while FedEx is planning a massive transition toward an AI agent workforce.

9. Trump Family Drone Venture: A golf club firm owned by Donald Trump’s sons is merging with a drone manufacturer to take the technology company public, signaling a deeper family investment in the defense sector.

10. US-India Energy Deal: Donald Trump announced a $300 billion deal where Reliance Industries will build the first new oil refinery in the US in nearly 50 years.

11. India’s Russian Oil Waiver: The U.S. Treasury has issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea to prevent further global price spikes.

12. Supply Chain Chaos: Global fashion retailers, including Zara (Inditex), H&M, and Primark, are facing major shipment delays. Cargo from hubs in Bangladesh and India is stranded at airports due to flight cancellations caused by the Middle East conflict.

Last week Nifty made low’s of 23115.35 to give a close at 23151.10. In the coming week as well falling rupee & rising crude oil prices may continue to put pressure on the broader markets & Nifty may have a chance of hitting 22800 on the lower levels. However, this overall mayhem may come to an end with major crucial supports falling within the range of 22500-22800 kind of levels while immediate hurdle now lies within the broad range of 23800-24300 kind of levels. The coming week may show some relief rally from the lower crucial support levels towards the upper hurdles. And the relief rally could be initiated by Bank Nifty while Nifty IT may bring the support as rupee fall may benefit this sector but this support right now could only be for temporary impact.

Bank Nifty may find its crucial support within the range of 53000-53700 kind of levels while on the upside immediate hurdle could be seen within the range of 57000-57700 kind of levels. PSU banks may show some pressure this time while large-cap private banks may support the index.

Nifty IT may continue to find its crucial support at within the range of 26000-28000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 32000-32800 kind of levels on an immediate basis.

Sensex may hit its crucial support levels at 72000 kind of levels in the coming week ahead while immediate hurdle may now remain at 77000-78000 kind of levels.

Nifty Financials may find its crucial support levels at 24300-24500 while immediate hurdle lies at 25800-26600 kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 31,002 cr. per month as on December 2025.

 Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  23151.10
Nifty Potential Hurdle: 23800-24300
Nifty Immediate Downside Target: 22500-22800

Sensex CMP: 74563.92
Sensex Immediate Hurdle: 77000-78000
Sensex Immediate Downside Target: 72000

Bank Nifty CMP:  53757.85
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 57000-57700
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside Target: 53000-53700

Nifty Financial CMP: 25138.65
Nifty Financial Immediate Hurdle: 25800-26600
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Target: 24300-24500

Nifty IT CMP: 29071.30
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 32000-32800
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 26000-28000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• HDFC Bank (CMP 817): This large-cap private sector bank looks good to add on decline towards 780-800 with strict SL placed at 740 one can expect a potential upside towards 900-920 within 1 month time frame.

• Kotak Mahindra Bank (CMP 366): Another large-cap private sector bank looks good to add on decline towards 355-360 with strict SL placed at 315 one may expect a potential upside towards 385-427 within 1 month time frame.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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