It’s a DEAL: Modi-Trump! Nifty May Try for Another Attempt for ATH!

India-US trade deal announcement triggers a historic move. Nifty has set game for both Bulls & Bears last week following ferocious moves both the sides. While hit our earlier anticipated lower end channel of 24500-24800 making low’s of 24571.75 while it also tried hard to hit another failed attempt to hit ATH & made high’s of 26341.20 and gave a decisive close at 25693.70.

An indecisive close last week lead mixed view among the investors / traders. FII’s now became net buyer’s last week though marginal one but definitely show’s positive sign for the coming week ahead. Precious metals initially cool off but closed almost neutral with no possible impact in the equities expected in the coming week ahead.

Gold corrected nearly 24.67% from its recent highs of 180779 to hit a low of 136185 a biggest decline in a single week while it now remained inline with nominal gain last week while in Silver which made highs of 420048 & gave a vertical dive towards 225805 a single-handed fall of nearly 46.25% a biggest fall in the history within 2 weeks’ time frame.

As earlier mentioned, meltdown in precious metal has lead investors with a ray of hope as once an asset class crashes investors seek shelter to another asset class which basically here is Equity. This melt down may result in inflow into the Capital markets gradually.

This week its purely based India-US trade deal factors. Precious metals meltdown may have positive impact over here but the deal may have major impact on the broader trading range of the markets.

Though rupee fall has been a big issue lately but it has shown some recovery towards 90.022 & if things get back in favor, broader market may try to follow up the positive momentum.

FII’s have been into net sell in 7 months out of 10 in current Fiscal year 2025-26 creating ruckus pressure on the entire markets. In the traders / investors community it has now become a basic question why they are selling? & When this selling would stop?

Why FII’s have been continuously selling in Indian Markets?

In recently launched GDP growth rate of India in Q2 has been 8.20% while it is being projected that it will grow at 7.30% in the Fiscal year 2025-26 while USA has recently shown a GDP growth rate of 4.40% which is furthermore projected to grow at 4.70% so for a Developed economy which is showing nearly 5% of growth lately whereas target country which is still a Developing country with a projected growth rate of 7.30% but its currency is declining on a fast scale why would any institutions go for a Emerging Markets when it can get a growth of nearly 5% in an already developed nation while saving currency devaluation risk. Isn’t it a safer investment for them?

Well, ofcourse yes this could have been a major reason for FII’s to relentlessly sell into the Indian Equity markets.

Having said that recent conflict of US with Venezuela & US-Iran conflict still may or may not affect the domestic Equity markets further but Brent crude oil may continue to get effected as it tested 70.58$ per barrel.

Nifty last week initially remained under pressure where it hit lower end of the crucial support levels at 24571.75 while almost hit ATH near to 26341.20 with a decisive close at 25693.70. India-US trade deal has lead the positive inflow of FII’s along with positive momentum into the broader markets. In the coming week ahead Nifty is highly likely to hit 26150-26400 kind of levels on the upper side any move above this could give us a open blue sky while on the downside 25100-25400 could act as immediate crucial support levels.

This time positive support could be from Private banks followed by Reality sector but certain PSU stocks could also be seen into performance. Specific certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries & HDFC Bank etc.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty may once again head for ATH towards 61500-62000 kind of levels while on the downside 59000 could act as immediate support zone. Likewise Private heavy weight banks this time may show some relief rally while PSU Banks may remain sideways for a while.

Nifty IT may find its crucial support within the range of 33000-34000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 37000-37500 kind of levels.

The institutional investors FII’s turned net buyer’s with net buying of Rs. 2,645.53 cr. worth of equities while DII’s remained net buyers with nominal buying of Rs. 2,892.14 cr. FII’s remained net sellers so far in the month of January 2026 with net outflow of Rs. 41,435.22 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 69,220.74 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets in January 2026 month.

We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward& now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.

Now a India-US trade deal looks a positive flow of FII’s may come again into the Indian Equity markets but clarity may comes once it actually happens.

India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1 & 8.20% in Q2 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.

FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:

Brent Crude we continue to remain neutral as no further tensions seen across the Global politics.

However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 26372.80 in January 2026 came a long way of recovery almost 20% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q1 GDP of 7.80% & Q2 GDP of 8.20%.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• Rupee as earlier anticipated hit almost 90 we now remain neutral as of now.

• Dollar Indexa earlier anticipated hit almost 98 we now remain neutral here.

• Brent Crude as earlier anticipated hit 68$ we now remain neutral from hereonwards for the week.

On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 18-19%& stayed stable with consistent recovery as of now which signifies minimum downside while potential upside could be remains at large which continuously signifies &now support could be within the range of24500-24800 in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 22%-36% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News:

1. Govt and RBI are in talks with Ant International to integrate Alipay+ with India’s digital payments system, enabling cross-border transactions. (RTRS).

2. Morgan Stanley flags downside risk to mobile volume estimates from surging DRAM prices and likely regulatory approval delays.

3. Govt considering hike in FDI limit for state-run banks to 49% from current 20%. This aims to boost capital infusion amid rising credit demand.

4. Russia’s Novak on India’s potential Russian oil cut: “We’ve only seen public statements.

5. Metals Slump: Precious metals saw a significant decline, with silver plunging 4% and gold prices sliding by ₹4,200 per 10 grams.

6. Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB) Slump: Prices of SGBs dropped by up to 10% on the NSE today following a government proposal to eliminate capital gains tax exemptions for bonds bought through secondary markets

7. Ford & Xiaomi: Reports indicate Ford is exploring a strategic EV tie-up with China’s Xiaomi to bolster its competitiveness in the Asian electric vehicle market.

8. SpaceX Merger Rumors: Bloomberg recently reported that Elon Musk has been weighing a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla (or xAI), though no final decision has been made.

9. ITR Deadlines: New staggered timelines for filing ITRs were proposed, with some taxpayers now able to file until March 31 of the assessment year

10. Mahindra’s ₹15,000 Crore Plan: The Mahindra Group announced a massive ₹15,000 crore investment in Maharashtra over the next decade. This includes setting up its largest integrated manufacturing facility for automobiles and tractors in Nagpur.

11. Chabahar Port Commitment: The Indian government confirmed it has fully paid its $120 million commitment for the Chabahar port in Iran, completing the payment well ahead of the U.S. sanctions waiver expiration in April 2026.

12. India and the US have finalized a framework for an Interim Trade Agreement, with India cutting tariffs on all US industrial goods plus key agri, food, wine, and spirits products.

International news:

1. Trump claims India-US trade deal cuts US tariffs from 25% to 18% at Modi’s request, aiding Ukraine peace amid ongoing deaths.

2. Trump says India will slash tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero, committing to “Buy American” with $500B+ in US energy, tech, agri, coal, and more.

3. Trump praises Modi call: India stops Russian oil buys, ramps up US purchases (possibly Venezuela too), to boost trade and end Russia-Ukraine war.

4. India-US trade deal leaves steep US tariffs intact on Indian steel (50%), aluminium (50%), and auto parts (25%). These Section 232 duties persist despite the overall reciprocal tariff cut to 18% on most Indian exports, affecting over $8 billion in shipments like $3.9B autos, $2.5B steel.

5. AI & Chips: Reports surfaced that OpenAI is exploring alternatives to some Nvidia chips as it seeks to diversify its hardware supply chain.

6. China-UK Diplomacy: News continues to follow UK PM Keir Starmer’s trip to Asia. After meeting Xi Jinping in Beijing to seek a “mature” relationship, he is scheduled to meet Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo to discuss regional security and trade.

7. Economic Warning: Former ECB President Mario Draghi warned in a speech that the current economic world order is “dead,” urging Europe to move toward a federal structure to survive competition from the U.S. and China.

8. Investment Shifts: Following India’s Union Budget, Bloomberg highlights new rules allowing Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) to invest more easily in domestic stocks, a move designed to offset the $19 billion withdrawn by foreign institutional investors over the last year.

9. TrumpRx Launch: President Trump officially launched TrumpRx, a discount platform powered by GoodRx, aimed at cutting prescription drug prices. Sixteen major pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and AstraZeneca, have signed pricing agreements with the administration.

10. The Nvidia Factor: The shift is driven by Korea’s dominance in high-bandwidth memory chips essential for Nvidia’s AI processors, while Chinese firms face more domestic-focused growth and US export curbs.

11. S. to closely monitor India’s crude oil imports from Russia.

12. AI Disruption Fears: Investors are aggressively selling software stocks (like SAP and Sage) on fears that new generative AI tools (specifically from Anthropic) will disrupt traditional seat-based pricing models. JPMorgan analysts describe the sentiment as “sentencing the sector before trial.

Last week Nifty made high of 26341.20 to give a close at 25693.70. Nifty last week initially remained under pressure where it hit lower end of the crucial support levels at 24571.75 while almost hit ATH near to 26341.20 with a decisive close at 25693.70. India-US trade deal has lead the positive inflow of FII’s along with positive momentum into the broader markets. In the coming week ahead Nifty is highly likely to hit 26150-26400 kind of levels on the upper side any move above this could give us a open blue sky while on the downside 25100-25400 could act as immediate crucial support levels.

This time positive support could be from Private banks followed by Reality sector but certain PSU stocks could also be seen into performance. Specific certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries & HDFC Bank etc.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty may once again head for ATH towards 61500-62000 kind of levels while on the downside 59000 could act as immediate support zone. Likewise Private heavy weight banks this time may show some relief rally while PSU Banks may remain sideways for a while.

Nifty IT may find its crucial support within the range of 33000-34000 kind of levels while a recovery could be seen towards 37000-37500 kind of levels.

Sensex made high last week at 85871.73 to give a close at 83580.40. Sensex may find its crucial support within the lower levels of 81000 kind of levels while on the upside 85000-86000 remains as a immediate target zone as of now.

Nifty Financials may find its immediate target at 28000-29000 kind of levels while on the downside immediate crucial support now lies at 27000kind of levels.

As of January 2026 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 21.6 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 31,002 cr. per month as on December 2025.

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  25693.70
Nifty Potential Immediate Target:26150-26400
Nifty Immediate Downside Support:25100-25400

Sensex CMP: 83580.40
Sensex Immediate Target: 85000-86000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 81000

Bank Nifty CMP:  60120.55
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle:61500-62000
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside: 59000

Nifty Financial CMP: 27807.10
Nifty Financial Immediate Hurdle: 28000-29000
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Support: 27000

Nifty IT CMP: 35611.05
Nifty IT Immediate Target:37000-37500
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 33000-34000

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• PVR (CMP 1006):this large-cap counter has been underperformance lately & has posted extra-ordinary results may rise from here onwards from CMP 1006 with strict SL placed at 900 one can looks for 20% upside from here i.e.1200.

• LIC Housing Finance (CMP 518):This large-cap housing finance counter looks good at CMP 518 with strict SL placed at 488 for a potential upside towards 555 in short term.

• ITC (CMP 326):This large-cap FMCG counter looks good to add here at CMP 326 for a potential upside towards 350 with strict SL placed at 299.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta, a SEBI Registered Research Analyst, is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets, who has spent years comprehending an industry-wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in-depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time, giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of the Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985