It took nearly 5 weeks Nifty to hit another ATH again wherein it defied the gravity along with bulls which took them to another ATH of 26340. Nifty last week has been very confusing where it broke the subsequent previous week’s low & took support within out predefined levels of 25800-25900 kind of levels & rose back again to hit another ATH to hit 26340 keeping bulls on Dalaal Street alive with confidence this time & gave ATH closing of 26328.55.
Having said that recent conflict of US with Venezuela may or may not affect the domestic Equity markets but our own domestic factors remain strong & resilient supporting the domestic growth even though if we get any kind of one-time effect of gap down opening on Monday morning, we may get a full-fledged recovery & may close in green. Though some oil prices may affect due to the conflict but that too may remain with nominal & very short-term impact.
Last week once again shown roller coaster ride with initial pressure on the downside & then bulls regained the control of Dalaal Street keeping the edge on the higher levels where Nifty this time not only made another ATH of 26340 but also gave another ATH closing of 26328.55 with path now showing signs of 26700-27000 to hit probably before budget resulting in pre-budget rally. However, the crucial supports still remain within our pre-defined range of 25800-25900 kind of levels. However, this month is filled with lots of outcomes with Auto , GST & Direct Tax data followed by upcoming Budget on 1st of February 2026.
On the other hand Bank Nifty is highly likely to hit 61500 kind of levels this time following the breakout with crucial supports shifting slightly higher within the range of 58700-59500 kind of levels.
However, we have been positive on “Nifty IT” & for 40000 mark in December 2025 series which has been almost completed by making recent high’s of 39527.85 so we remained neutral too last week. We now expect it to once again hit / head for 40000 mark while crucial supports remain at 37400 any breakdown below this could result in 35800 kind of levels.
Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 16-month bond of negative growth.
The institutional investors FII’s remained a net seller with sell of Rs. 13,180.09 cr. worth of equities while DII’s remained net buyers with massive buying of Rs. 12,024.49 cr. Sell off now once again backs FII’s turning net sellers in December 2025 with net outflow of Rs. 34,349.62 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 17,766.57 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets in December 2025 month.
We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward& now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.
India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1 & 8.20% in Q2 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.
FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:
|
FII And DII Monthly Data (Rs. In cr.) |
||
|
Month |
FII |
DII |
|
|
||
|
Apr |
2,735.02 |
28,228.45 |
|
May |
11,773.25 |
67,642.34 |
|
June |
7,488.98 |
72,673.91 |
|
July |
-47,666.68 |
60,939.16 |
|
Aug |
-46,902.92 |
94,828.55 |
|
Sept |
-35,301.36 |
65,343.59 |
|
Oct |
-2,346.89 |
52,794.02 |
|
Nov |
-17,500.31 |
77,083.78 |
|
Dec |
-34,349.62 |
79,619.91 |
|
Jan |
-2,978.80 |
2,203.27 |
|
Total |
-1,65,049.33 |
6,01,356.98 |
Brent Crude may show some shar rise towards 66-68$ per barrel seeing conflict between US & Venezuela. While crucial support now remains at 60$.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 26325.80 in November 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 20% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q1 GDP of 7.80%& Q2 GDP of 8.20%.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
-
Rupee hit all time low of 91.082 & a cool off seen towards 89.414 & further more towards 89.243 we remain neutral for the coming week ahead.
-
Dollar Index last week hit low of 97.75 it may continue to remain sideways for a while.
-
Brent Crude may show some shar rise towards 66-68$ per barrel seeing conflict between US & Venezuela. While crucial support now remains at 60$.
On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 9-10%& stayed stable with consistent recovery as of now which signifies minimum downside while potential upside could be remains at large which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 24300-24500has already been down while supports have shifted higher at 25800-25900 kind of levels which indeed could turn the game in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 22%-36% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
| 1 |
DGFT has kept a floor price of 1,400 USD per tonne for exports of natural honey and extended this condition until March 31, 2026; exports below this price are not allowed. |
| 2 |
DGFT has extended import restrictions on low-ash metallurgical coke (ash <18%) till June 30, 2026—imports permitted only under specific conditions, not freely. High-ash coke (>18% ash) imports remain unrestricted. This supports domestic coal/coke producers while steelmakers may face higher costs or supply shifts.
|
| 3 |
Infosys’ Rs 18,000-crore share buyback starts tomorrow.
|
|
4 |
Reliance Power sets up new Board of Management
|
| 5 |
Ola Electric: Co receives government certification for its 4680 Bharat cell powered roadster X+ motorcycle |
| 6 |
OPEC+ expected to stick with oil production pause: delegates: Bloomberg |
| 7 |
Trade Pacts: Australia is set to scrap all tariffs on Indian exports starting January 1, 2026. Meanwhile, India and Bahrain have exchanged draft terms to begin trade pact negotiations. |
| 8 |
INDIAN GOVT CLAIMS $30BLN FROM RELIANCE -BP FOR UNDER PRODUCTION FROM GAS FIELD
|
| 9 |
Punjab National Bank (PNB) reported a major loan fraud of approximately Rs. 2,434 crore involving former promoters of SREI Equipment Finance and SREI Infrastructure Finance. Shares of the bank dipped nearly 3% following the announcement.
|
| 10 |
Forex Reserves: India’s foreign exchange reserves saw a significant jump of $4.37 billion, reaching a total of $693.32 billion. |
International news:
| 1 |
Tech Acquisition: Meta is reportedly in a deal to acquire Chinese AI startup Manus for approximately $2–$3 billion |
| 2 |
Trump vs. Federal Reserve: President Donald Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him “grossly incompetent” and hinting at a potential replacement announcement in early 2026. Markets are closely watching for shifts in U.S. monetary policy that could impact Asian trade. |
| 3 |
Indian Oil & Billionaire Wealth: Russian oil deliveries to India are projected to plunge in late December due to shipping and payment complexities. Simultaneously, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index reports a massive wealth surge for Indian moguls, with Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani leading the gains for 2025. |
| 4 |
China Is Set to Pay Interest on Its Official Digital Currency to Boost Adoption After Nearly A Decade Of Development And Testing |
| 5 |
China-Taiwan Tensions: The Chinese military conducted drills as a “stern warning” following US arms sales to Taiwan. |
| 6 |
Global Market Rally: Global stocks are hovering near record highs, though technology megacaps have begun to weigh on US equity futures as traders pare back risk in the final week of the year. |
| 7 |
Samsung’s India Push: Samsung is reportedly planning to source chips from India if prices remain competitive, bolstering the country’s semiconductor ambitions under the PLI (Production Linked Incentive) scheme. |
| 8 |
China’s Economic Recovery: Factory activity in China rose to 50.1 in December, successfully ending a record eight-month slump. This signals a potential turnaround for the world’s second-largest economy as it enters 2026. |
| 9 |
US Chip Export Licenses: The U.S. government has granted annual licenses to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, allowing them to continue importing American chip-making equipment for their facilities in China. This move aims to stabilize global supply chains despite ongoing tech tensions. |
| 10 |
China-Netherlands Tech Standoff: The Chinese government has urged the Netherlands to “correct mistakes” regarding the forced divestment and takeover of chipmaker Nexperia, warning that Dutch actions against Chinese-owned tech firms could damage bilateral relations |
| 11 |
Federal Reserve Leadership: President Trump has indicated that a decision on whether to replace or retain Jerome Powell as Fed Chair will be made sometime in January 2026. |
| 12 |
UN Budget Cuts: The United Nations has cleared a 7% reduced budget for 2026, largely due to significant arrears from the U.S. government totaling over $1.4 billion. |
| 13 |
The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
Last week once again shown roller coaster ride with initial pressure on the downside & then bulls regained the control of Dalaal Street keeping the edge on the higher levels where Nifty this time not only made another ATH of 26340 but also gave another ATH closing of 26328.55 with path now showing signs of 26700-27000 to hit probably before budget resulting in pre-budget rally. However, the crucial supports still remain within our pre-defined range of 25800-25900 kind of levels. However, this month is filled with lots of outcomes with Auto , GST & Direct Tax data followed by upcoming Budget on 1st of February 2026.Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 16-month bond of negative growth.
Sensex made high last week at 85812.27 to give a close at 85041.45. Sensex too looks bullish & may head for 88000-89000 while on the downside crucial supports still remains at 84000 kind of levels. However, this month is filled with lots of outcomes with Auto , GST & Direct Tax data followed by upcoming Budget on 1st of February 2026. Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 16-month bond of negative growth.
On the other hand Bank Nifty is highly likely to hit 61500 kind of levels this time following the breakout with crucial supports shifting slightly higher within the range of 58700-59500 kind of levels.
Nifty Financials may now head for 29000 mark while crucial supports still remains at 27000 kind of levels.
However, we have been positive on “Nifty IT” & for 40000 mark in December 2025 series which has been almost completed by making recent high’s of 39527.85 so we remained neutral too last week. We now expect it to once again hit / head for 40000 mark while crucial supports remain at 37400 any breakdown below this could result in 35800 kind of levels.
As of July 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 19.24 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 27269 cr. per month as on June 2025.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 26328.55
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 26700-27000
Nifty Immediate Downside Support:25800-25900
Sensex CMP: 85762.01
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 88000-90000
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 84000
Bank Nifty CMP: 60150.95
Bank Nifty Immediate Target:61500
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside: 58700-59500 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 27899.15
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 29000
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Support: 27000
Nifty IT CMP: 38320.30
Nifty IT Immediate Target: 40000
Nifty IT Immediate Crucial Support: 37400 / 35800 (As the case may be)
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
-
IRCTC (CMP 694): This counter poised for a trend reversal / pre-budget rally towards 780 from CMP 694 with strict SL placed at 649.
-
Jio Financials (CMP 301): This large-cap NBFC counter looks good to add here at CMP 301 with strict SL placed at 288 one can expect 350 on upside in 3 months’ time frame.
-
LIC Housing Finance (CMP 545): This large-cap counter looks like poised for an upside towards 600 with strict SL placed at 510.
Mid-Caps:
-
VIP Industries (CMP 388): This counter looks like may form immediate bottom if hold on to the levels of 330(SL) one can expect a potential upside towards 550 from CMP 388 in medium term time frame.
-
Just Dial (CMP 734): This counter if holds on to the levels of 690 (SL) we may get 850 in mid term from CMP 734.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985
