It’s been consistently 6 weeks when Nifty finds it hard to sustain above 26330 while pull back can be seen each time it tries to break above 26330 as these hurdles remains as a power break once it breaks this levels & sustains then 26700-27000 would become as an immediate target zone. Domestic factors remain as an asset for the broader markets move as domestic fundamentals remains strong.
Last week has been a roller coaster ride where upper end remained stuck at 26235.20 while it still holds on to the lower crucial levels & gave a close above 26000 which represents strength into the markets. Though Nifty survived a close above 26000 but an indecisive close on Weekly charts remained with a Doji candle represents a possible move towards the lower end of the channel where Nifty may hit 25700-25800 kind of levels breaking of which would be considered as breakdown which may lad a move towards 25300-25400 kind of levels while is sustains then a move towards upper end of 26330 could once again be tested. However, a move above 26330 would be considered as a confirmation of breakout which may lead towards 26700-27000 on an immediate basis.
Meanwhile Bank Nifty may continue to disown the move entirely as it may move towards 58500 & any break below this could trigger a further downfall towards 57500-57000 kind of levels while on the upside any move above 57700 would now be considered as an immediate breakout zone which may lead a further up move towards 61000-61400 kind of levels.
However, we have been positive on “Nifty IT” &for 40000 mark in December 2025 series which has been almost completed by making recent high’s of 39527.85 so we now remain neutral here for the coming week.
Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month bond of negative growth.
The institutional investors FII’s remained neutral last week with marginal sell of Rs. 4,290.96 cr. worth of equities while DII’s remained net buyers with massive buying of Rs. 12,024.49 cr. Sell off now once again backs FII’s turning net sellers in November 2025 with net outflow of Rs. 17,500.31 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 77,083.78 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets so far in this month.
We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward& now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.
India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1 & 8.20% in Q2 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.
FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:
| FII And DII Monthly Data (Rs. In cr.) | ||
| Month | FII | DII |
| Apr | 2,735.02 | 28,228.45 |
| May | 11,773.25 | 67,642.34 |
| June | 7,488.98 | 72,673.91 |
| July | -47666.68 | 60,939.16 |
| Aug | -46902.92 | 94,828.55 |
| Sept | -35301.36 | 65,343.59 |
| Oct | -2,346.89 | 52,794.02 |
| Nov | -17,500.31 | 77,083.78 |
| Dec | -24,148.33 | 64,056.61 |
| TOTAL | -1,51,869.24 | 5,83,590.41 |
As per our earlier expectations following the geopolitical issues Crude oil has finally tested 60$ per barrel almost & Brent crude from there hit recent high’s of 64.09$ per barrel & now remain sideways & India Vix as earlier anticipated hit below 10 we now expect it to hit 11-12 range & may remain here for while with stable equities.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 26325.80 in November 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 20% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q1 GDP of 7.80%& Q2 GDP of 8.20%.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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Rupee hit all time low of 91.082 & a cool off seen towards 89.414 & further more towards 89.243 we remain neutral for the coming week ahead.
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Dollar Index last week hit low of 97.75 it may remain sideways for a while.
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Brent Crude hit 58.72$ per barrel as per our previous expectations & made recent high of 64.09$ per barrel we now remain neutral here as of now
On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 12-13%& stayed stable with consistent recovery as of now which signifies minimum downside while potential upside could be remains at large which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 24300-24500has already been down while supports have shifted higher at 25700-25800 kind of levels which indeed could turn the game in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 36% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
| 1 |
RBI to infuse ₹2 lakh crore liquidity into banks and conduct $10 bn USD/INR buy/sell swap auction (3-year tenor) on Jan 13, 2026. |
| 2 |
Noida International Airport partners with Tech Mahindra for network, cybersecurity operations |
| 3 |
Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said Delhi’s air pollution is so severe that he gets a throat infection after just two days in the city, adding that transport contributes about 40% of the capital’s pollution. |
| 4 |
Ola Electric launches same-day service initiative with Hyperservice Centres |
| 5 |
Defence Acquisition Council likely to approve defence deals worth 80,000 crores: ET Now |
| 6 |
SEBI: Releases Circular on Enhancing Facility for Basic Services Demat Account (BSDA). |
| 7 |
SEBI: Decided to exclude Zero Coupon Zero Principal (ZCZP) bonds and delisted securities while reckoning the threshold for Basic Services Demat Account (BSDA) |
| 8 |
Indian data and commentary highlight rising small-business credit exposure (around 16% YoY to ?46 trillion as of September) even as lenders turn more cautious, and a continued build-up in FX reserves via RBI swap operations. |
| 9 |
PMI data show India’s private-sector activity growth at a 10-month low in December as softer new orders cooled both manufacturing and services momentum. |
| 10 |
The Bank of England narrowly voted to ease again, and survey data show UK market participants expect further modest cuts through mid-2026 as inflation falls and labour-market softness builds. |
| 11 |
The rupee weakened to around 89.86 per dollar, posting a weekly loss amid steady corporate dollar demand and a firmer USD, despite aggressive RBI intervention |
International news:
| 1 |
Net FDI into India rose to 6.2 billion dollars during April–October FY26 as repatriation declined to 31.65 billion dollars, even as outward FDI increased to 20.5 billion dollars, RBI data showed. |
| 2 |
Glenmark Pharma: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc., USA launches Epinephrine Injection USP, 30 mg/30 mL (1 mg/mL) multiple‑dose vial |
| 3 |
China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker |
| 4 |
US triples self-deportation stipend till year end, offers $3000, free flight to illegal immigrants |
| 5 |
Jim Beam closes Kentucky distillery for 2026 |
| 6 |
20,000 Indian truckers in US sue California govt over mass licence cancellations |
| 7 |
Widespread outages at Amazon Web Services have taken thousands of websites offline. |
| 8 |
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that 2025 has been tough for everyone and warned that next year will be even worse |
| 9 |
China is still restricting rare earth elements needed by the US to make permanent magnets and other products, even after President Donald Trump reached a deal with China to lift supply curbs, |
| 10 |
Global equities had a mildly positive, low-volume holiday week, with US indices near record highs while small caps underperformed, and precious metals like gold and silver extended their strong year-to-date gains |
| 11 |
Coverage of Middle East and Eastern Europe hotspots continues to stress their impact on energy markets, shipping routes, and risk sentiment, although no single new shock dominated the last holiday-shortened week. |
| 12 |
Strategic alignments are deepening in the Indo-Pacific, with Australia–Papua New Guinea defence cooperation and India–US partnership (including tariff changes and tech/space connectivity) framed as responses to broader regional competition. |
Business Impacts
The Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike to 0.75% raises borrowing costs for Japanese businesses, squeezing profitability for debt-heavy firms while benefiting banks through wider lending margins. Businesses face higher interest expenses on floating-rate loans, potentially curbing investment amid U.S. tariff risks and weak consumer spending.
Future Outlook
BOJ pledged continued hikes if outlook materializes, assessing economy’s reaction per increase, without fixed pace. Analysts see multiple hikes possible by 2027, balancing inflation control against fragile growth. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans add fiscal pressure, but BOJ prioritizes independence
|
Summaries |
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|
Japan rate cut outcome (December 2025) |
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|
Japan’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, marking the highest level since 1995 and the first hike since January. This unanimous decision reflects sustained inflation above the 2% target and steady wage growth, signaling a shift from decades of ultra-loose policy History The BOJ ended negative rates in early 2024, moving to 0-0.1%, then hiked to 0.5% in January 2025 before pausing until this latest 25-basis-point increase. Inflation has exceeded 2% for nearly four years, with November 2025 core CPI at 3.0%, supporting normalization |
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|
Key Drivers Sluggish yen raised import prices, prompting action despite global risks like U.S. tariffs. Neutral Rate View: Real rates remain deeply negative, allowing gradual hikes toward an estimated neutral range of 1-2.5% |
||||||
| Economic Outlook
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized data-dependent tightening, with real rates still accommodative post-hike to support growth amid moderate recovery. Risks include higher debt servicing costs for government and firms, potential rent/price pressures, and yen volatility, but policy remains supportive. Markets priced in the move, with economists forecasting 1.0% by September 2026 if wage momentum holds |
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Nifty last week made high’s 26235.20&weekly close at 26042.30.A roller coaster ride in Nifty where upper end remained stuck at 26235.20 while it still holds on to the lower crucial levels & gave a close above 26000 which represents strength into the markets. Though Nifty survived a close above 26000 but an indecisive close on Weekly charts remained with a Doji candle represents a possible move towards the lower end of the channel where Nifty may hit 25700-25800 kind of levels breaking of which would be considered as breakdown which may lad a move towards 25300-25400 kind of levels while is sustains then a move towards upper end of 26330 could once again be tested. However, a move above 26330 would be considered as a confirmation of breakout which may lead towards 26700-27000 on an immediate basis.Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month bond of negative growth.
Sensex made high last week at 85732.48 to give a close at 85041.45. Sensex too formed Doji kind of candle on Weekly charts giving a indecisive move in the coming week ahead. Breakout can be confirmed only on a move above 86200& once done a further up move towards 88000-89000 can be a possibility while on the downside crucial supports still remains at 84000 kind of levels.
Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month bond of negative growth.
Meanwhile Bank Nifty may continue to disown the move entirely as it may move towards 58500 & any break below this could trigger a further downfall towards 57500-57000 kind of levels while on the upside any move above 57700 would now be considered as an immediate breakout zone which may lead a further up move towards 61000-61400 kind of levels.
Nifty Financials may now head for 29000 mark while crucial supports now remain at 27000 kind of levels.
However, we have been positive on “Nifty IT” & for 40000 mark in December 2025 series which has been almost completed by making recent high’s of 39527.85 so we now remain neutral here for the coming week.
As of July 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 19.24 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 27269 cr. per month as on June 2025.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 26042.30
Nifty Potential Upside Target:26330 / 26700-27000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Downside Support:25700-25800 / 25300-25400 (As the case may be)
Sensex CMP: 85041.45
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 86200 / 88000-90000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 84000
Bank Nifty CMP: 59011.35
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle:59700 / 61000-61400 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside: 58500 / 57000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 27430.75
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 29000
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Support: 27000
Nifty IT CMP: 38572.30
“View remains Neutral in Nifty IT”
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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LIC India (CMP 850): This counter looks good to add here at CMP 850 with strict SL placed at 815 for an estimated possible target of 900 on an immediate basis.
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Mankind (CMP 2193): This large-cap Pharma counter could show a small bounce from CMP 2193 with small SL placed at 2090 one can expect a bounce towards 2280-2300 kind of levels.
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Jio Financials (CMP 297): This large-cap NBFC counter looks good to add here at CMP 297 with strict SL placed at 250 one can expect 350 on upside in 3 months’ time frame.
Mid-Caps:
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VIP Industries (CMP 386): This counter looks like may form immediate bottom if hold on to the levels of 330(SL) one can expect a potential upside towards 550 from CMP 386 in medium term time frame.
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Just Dial (CMP 723): This counter if holds on to the levels of 690 (SL) we may get 850 in mid term from CMP 723.
Small-Caps:
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Dalmia Bharat Sugar (CMP 299): This small cap sugar counter looks like good to add here at CMP 299 with strict SL placed at 268 for a potential upside towards 335-365 kind of levels.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985
