For the first time in the history of Indian Equity markets Nifty has given a successful close above 26000 on four consecutive Weekly charts which indeed displays the bulls strength & follow-up of the bullish structure in the this & the coming weeks ahead. Nifty last week initially showed the weakness but eventually with few or more positive inflow of news following Q2 GDP @8.20% followed by RBI rate cut of 25bps & US Fed giving the rate cut booster by 25bps Nifty came back alive towards & above the 26000 mark on four consecutive Weekly charts while giving a decisive close at 26046.95.
So far Nifty has been showing a tug of war between Bulls (DII’s) & Bears (FII’s) wherein bears tried their way to break 25700 while DII’s fought hard to revive the markets & 25700 got saved while they were quite successful as well & Nifty rise back to above 26000 kind of levels. This win now makes four consecutive Weekly close above 26000 which represents bulls remain on upper hand & can lead for a quick rally towards 26700-27000 if breaks above 26330. Domestic economy remains on a robust growth with Q2 GDP @8.20% followed by RBI rate cut by 25bps to boost liquidity which may eventually increase the demand on domestic levels.
However, the coming week may show some support from Bank Nifty but this index still has major issues at 60000-60200 kind of levels while on the downside a break below 58600 could be a major breakdown if happens then we may witness 57000 on an immediate basis while a move above 60000-60200 could trigger a move towards 61000-61400 kind of levels.
While the potential upside in Nifty can continue to be well supported by continuous performance of “Nifty IT” which may continue its journey towards 40000 mark in December 2025 series.
Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by “IT Index”, certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, TCS & Infosys etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month bond of negative growth.
The institutional investors FII’s remained neutral with net sell of Rs. 9,201.89 cr. Worth of equities while DII’s remained net buyers with massive buying of Rs. 20,184.70 cr. Last weeks sell off now once again backs FII’s turning net sellers in November 2025 with net outflow of Rs. 17,500.31 cr. while DII’s once again remains massive buyers so far with net inflow of Rs. 77,083.78 cr. for the month. DII’s remains main supporter of the Indian Equity markets so far in this month.
We clearly mentioned earlier that Nifty’s pressure only resembles the pressure of political will rather than fundamental one. FII’s selling has kept its pressure intact to the Indian domestic Equity markets as it went lesser last month the real realization came forward & now the Indian markets growth story rises & the politically backed selling with pressure from the Trump administration to diminish the Indian markets & create an artificial pressure to put an end to the Indo-Russia friendship remains untouched.
India remained on the higher ground on GDP data front where it achieved a milestone with historic growth rate of 7.80% in Q1 & 8.20% in Q2 of FY 25-26 completely mocking Trump’s “Dead Economy” jibe at its face where India remained on the Top-notch developing economy set for a target of $25 Trillion economy by 2047 on track. However, chairman of Reliance Industries Limited Mr. Mukesh Ambani said in its latest AGM last week that India has the capacity to achieve 10% GDP growth annually which once again has set another long-lasting futuristic goal for the entire economy.
FII & DII’s monthly data so far in the FY 2025-26 has been interesting where FII’s bought in few months initially then abstain from buying or remained to being on the sell side while DII’s remained the biggest supporter of the broader markets. The data below mentioned:
|
FII And DII Monthly Data (Rs. In cr.) |
||
|
Month |
FII |
DII |
|
Apr |
2,735.02 | 28,228.45 |
|
May |
11,773.25 | 67,642.34 |
|
June |
7,488.98 | 72,673.91 |
|
July |
-47666.68 | 60,939.16 |
|
Aug |
-46902.92 | 94,828.55 |
|
Sept |
-35301.36 | 65,343.59 |
|
Oct |
-2,346.89 | 52,794.02 |
|
Nov |
-17,500.31 | 77,083.78 |
|
Dec |
-19605.51 | 39970.20 |
|
TOTAL |
-1,47,326.42 | 5,59,504 |
As per our earlier expectations following the geopolitical issues Crude oil has finally tested 60$ per barrel almost & Brent crude from there hit recent high’s of 64.09$ per barrel & now remain sideways & India Vix as earlier anticipated hit almost 10 we now remain neutral here.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 26325.80 in November 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 20% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q1 GDP of 7.80% & Q2 GDP of 8.20%.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
-
Rupee hit all time low of 90.652 we remain neutral here for a while.
-
Dollar Index last week hit low of 98.13 it may remain sideways for a while.
-
Brent Crude hit 60$ per barrel as per our previous expectations & made recent high of 64.09$ per barrel we now remain neutral here as of now
On the other side FII’s net longs now near to 11% & stayed stable with consistent recovery as of now which signifies minimum downside while potential upside could be remains at large which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 24300-24500 has already been down while supports have shifted higher at 25700-25800 kind of levels which indeed could turn the game in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 36% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
| 1 |
RBI Rate Cut & Growth Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) revised India’s GDP forecast for FY26 upwards to 7.3% (from 6.8%) and announced a 25 basis points reduction in the policy repo rate to 5.25%. |
| 2 |
PM on Economic Growth: Prime Minister Modi asserts that India’s economic performance, with 8.2% GDP growth in Q2 FY26, positions it as a major engine of global growth, calling India a “relative oasis of tranquillity.” |
| 3 |
Cloud Security Investment: New York-based cloud security firm Wiz enters the Indian market, citing accelerated demand due to the rapid shift to cloud and AI-driven workloads by Indian enterprises. |
| 4 |
Rupee Weakness Concern: A Bank of America (BofA) report warns that the rupee’s weakness (among the steepest since past crises) is a 5-channel threat to the economy, mainly due to strained capital flows. |
| 5 |
US Trade Delegation Visit: A delegation led by the Deputy US Trade Representative (USTR) visits India (Dec 9-12) to press for greater market access for US agri products and to progress bilateral trade talks. |
| 6 |
Trade Talks Update: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal states that Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks with Oman and New Zealand are in the last leg, and a deal with the EU is nearing closure. |
| 7 |
A study by NCAER urged the government to reorient the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme towards labour-intensive sectors like textiles, garments, and food processing to create more jobs. |
| 8 |
Coal Mine Clearance Delays: Parliamentary committee flags delays of up to nearly three years in environmental and forest clearances for coal mining projects. |
| 9 |
Mexico Tariffs Impact Indian Exports |
International news:
| 1 |
The Fed cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the federal funds target range down to 3.50% to 3.75%. This was widely expected but signals continued focus on employment risks despite elevated inflation concerns. |
| 2 |
Reports indicated that American trade negotiators were scheduled to visit India the following week to finalize a proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), aimed at addressing tariff issues and boosting trade. |
| 3 |
The debate continued regarding the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, with ongoing discussions about their long-term effect on federal revenue, household costs, and international trade relations. |
| 4 |
Economic Projections/Dot Plot: Policymakers signaled only one 25 bps rate cut for 2026, maintaining their previous projection, which was seen as a relatively “hawkish cut.” |
| 5 |
India-US Trade Flashpoint over Rice: US President Donald Trump signaled a fresh point of friction with India, questioning why New Delhi is “allowed” to send large volumes of rice to the US without facing additional duties, and suggesting new tariffs could be implemented. This indicates ongoing instability in the US-India Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) negotiations. |
| 6 |
India-Russia Economic and Defense Ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. The countries finalized an economic cooperation program until 2030 to diversify trade, including a goal of $100 billion in annual trade, and agreed to reshape defense ties towards joint production. This strengthening of the Russia-India relationship is a key geopolitical development that the US is likely monitoring closely. |
| 7 |
News reports focused on China’s $1 trillion trade surplus, with the IMF warning China is “too big to rely on exports” and urging a shift to domestic growth. |
| 8 |
Foreign institutions raised forecasts for China’s economic growth rate. News regarding China’s plan to advance high-quality retail development in the next five years was also released. |
US Fed Meeting Outcome (December 2025)
The US Federal Reserve‘s Federal Open Market Committee held on 9-10 Dec 2025. The Results has been arrived. A 25 Basis point cut to the federal fund rate, bringing the target range to 3.50% -3.75% the third such reduction this year amid cooling labor market and sticky inflation
Monetary Policy Shift
The Federal Open Market Committee lowered rates to support maximum employment while aiming for 2% inflation, noting elevated uncertainty and rising downside employment risks. Projections indicate PCE inflation at 2.9% for 2025 (down from September’s 3.0%) and core PCE at 3.0%, with the fed funds rate path at 3.6% end-2025 and declining to 3.0% longer-run. Three dissenters’ highlighted divisions: one favored a 50 bps cut, two preferred no change.
Economic Outlook
Economic activity expands moderately, but job gains slowed and unemployment edged to 4.5% in projections for 2025, with GDP growth at 1.7% this year rising to 2.3% in 2026. Inflation remains above target despite progress, influenced by tariffs and data gaps from a government shutdown. The Fed will resume shorter-term Treasury purchases starting at $40 billion monthly to maintain ample reserves.
Business Impacts
Lower rates ease borrowing costs for firms, potentially boosting investment and hiring amid labor softness, though persistent inflation may limit further cuts in 2026. Businesses face mixed signals: supportive for expansion but cautious on pricing and wages.
Public and Global Effects
US public benefits from cheaper loans for homes, cars, and credit, aiding households amid elevated living costs. Emerging markets like India may see capital inflows from yield differentials, strengthening rupee and lowering import costs, but stronger dollar pressures exports.
Nifty last week made high’s 26177.60 & gave four consecutive Weekly close above 26000 at 26046.95 last week. So far Nifty has been showing a tug of war between Bulls (DII’s) & Bears (FII’s) wherein bears tried their way to break 25700 while DII’s fought hard to revive the markets & 25700 got saved while they were quite successful as well & Nifty rise back to above 26000 kind of levels. This win now makes four consecutive Weekly close above 26000 which represents bulls remain on upper hand & can lead for a quick rally towards 26700-27000 if breaks above 26330. Domestic economy remains on a robust growth with Q2 GDP @8.20% followed by RBI rate cut by 25bps to boost liquidity which may eventually increase the demand on domestic levels. Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by “IT Index”, certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, TCS & Infosys etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month’s bond of negative growth.
Sensex made high last week at 85700.87 to give a close at 85267.66. Sensex too gave a four consecutive weekly close above 85000 which shows strength here & any move above 86200 could give us we may get 88000-90000 in December 2025 series itself while crucial supports now still remain within our pre-defined levels of 84000-85000. Meanwhile the broader move this time could also take the Portfolio’s in green with Nifty inching higher but the broader move could be taken up by “IT Index”, certain heavy weights like Reliance Industries, TCS & Infosys etc. followed by Mid & Small cap Nifty which may now start rising along with markets breaking the 15 month’s bond of negative growth.
However, the coming week may show some support from Bank Nifty but this index still has major issues at 60000-60200 kind of levels while on the downside a break below 58600 could be a major breakdown if happens then we may witness 57000 on an immediate basis while a move above 60000-60200 could trigger a move towards 61000-61400 kind of levels.
Nifty Financials may now head for 29000 mark while crucial supports now remain at 27000 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” now holds the tag of value buying where nobody is interested & major heavy weights are available at attractive discounted rates this crucial index could now hit 40000 mark with crucial supports have shifted higher towards 35000-36000 kind of levels.
As of July 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has hit whopping 19.24 crores this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised towards Rs. 27269 cr. per month as on June 2025.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 26046.95
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 26330 / 26700-27000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Downside Support: 25700-25800
Sensex CMP: 85267.66
Sensex Potential Upside From Lower Levels: 86200 / 88000-90000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 84000-85000
Bank Nifty CMP: 59389.95
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 60000-60200 / 61000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Downside: 58500 / 57000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 27672.60
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 29000
Nifty Financial Immediate Downside Support: 27000
Nifty IT CMP: 38274.75
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 40000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 35000-36000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Mankind (CMP 2178): This large-cap Pharma counter could show a small bounce from CMP 2178 with small SL placed at 2100 one can expect a bounce towards 2280-2300 kind of levels.
-
LIC India (CMP 868): This large-cap PSU counter looks good to add here at CMP 868 with strict SL placed at 840 for an immediate potential upside towards 920.
-
ICICI Prudential (CMP 647): This insurance sector counter has given a breakout after 15 months looks like can hit 694 from CMO 647 with strict SL placed at 600.
-
Colpal (CMP 2164): This large cap FMCG counter looks like is worth taking a risk at CMP 2164 with strict SL placed at 2060 for a potential upside towards 2350 kind of levels.
Mid-Caps:
-
Sonata Software (CMP 350): This mid-cap IT counter looks like is on the verge of a bottom out & looks good to add here at CMP 350 with strict SL placed at 320 for a potential upside towards 460 in 3months time frame.
-
Devyani International (CMP 134): This mid-cap stock has been over beaten lately but now risk reward here looks good here at CMP 134 with strict SL placed at 120 for a potential upside towards 180 till March 2026.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985
