Dated: 12/07/2025
It’s been two weeks now when Nifty tested 25669.35 as its recent high’s & from there it has given a steep correction of 2.10% so far in 2 weeks which though looks like a correction but it is more like a consolidation for a major movement towards the upside. Though main index has not shown major downside but consolidation into the sectoral stocks has frustrated the traders / investors with a rangebound movement with one day gain & another day down.
Having a weaker sector where Banks & IT stocks have put major pressure into the markets others like PSU Banks & PSE Index have tried to break the chain this time with a positive momentum where heavy weights tried hard to give a decisive breakout from the long ongoing consolidation since one & half months in these sectors.
However, the geopolitical uncertainties have created certain aspects of issues among the other asset classes. Major factors are concerned like currencies / metals / crude oil etc we had specifically mentioned that there will be minimal effect on the domestic Equity markets despite the ongoing global uncertainties. The major effect may only come if Crude Oil surpassed 80$ per barrel which worked perfectly & our downward target of 70$ per barrel also got completed with low’s near to 65.93$ per barrel followed by India Vix where we clearly mentioned the downward target of 11 so far it has already tested 11.53 so far which signifies that once the consolidation is done the Vix may rise along with the rising indices either in the second half of July of in the month of August 2025 which though signifies the positive momentum but the traders will remain confused as what to do in the higher Vix environment which resembles Volatility in the Equity markets.
A healthy consolidation means healthy moves ahead is in the pipeline. As we enter into a new week Nifty last week purely remained into a consolidation zone where Nifty didn’t bothered to move in a uni-directional manner but with nominal intraday volatilities it declined with mere -1.20% in whole week though broader markets also didn’t witnessed major correction but the overall move merely lead to a consolidative move with no clear indication so far but rather closed near to its short term crucial support.
Meanwhile, Nifty in the coming week ahead is likely to remain vigilant initially with some more consolidative moves near to its short term crucial support levels of 24900-25160 where now immediate potential upside still remains at 26000-26250 kind of levels & if the flow continues Nifty could head towards 27000 kind of level but this could get delayed for next 5-6 Weeks time frame. But within these consolidative times with positive momentum every dip remains a buying opportunity but within specific sectors.
On the other hand Dollar Index declined to as low as 96.38 to hit 3 years low to give a decisive close at 97.87 which so far remained a positive factor but if it moves ahead 99.50 then a rise in this could lead towards 102 which may create some issues in the domestic Equity markets in short term. While the resultant impact on USDINR (Rupee) remained low to hit 85.183 to give a decisive close at 85.870 but whatever the impact may be on Dollar Index USDINR doesn’t look like could move above 87 in any near term rather a consolidative move could be witnessed here. But if the flow comes we do expect 84 to come but could be delayed till the end of August 2025 now(Big Positive thing). Meanwhile metals like Gold & Silver stayed remained stable on higher levels (Nor negative nor positive) resulted in a stable scenario for Equities.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last five months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 25662.40 in June 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 18% from the lower levels forming consecutive 4 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q4 GDP of 7.40%. However, we do not expect Nifty to further breaking any more below 24900-25160 levels while major upside can be seen once the upper range of 26000-26250 could be seen in the second half of July but the road to this may slow & gradual as India Vix may now remain sideways to hit high’s towards 13-14 gradually.
These day’s along with the broader markets the Portfolio’s too remained sideways let it be large cap / mid-cap of small cap’s. FII’s too turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
As earlier anticipated along the Indices broader markets have shown tremendous recovery lately with the portfolio’s finally turning green (Large Cap’s) from their originally stuck prices. FII’s too turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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Rupee remained stable at 85.870 from its recent high’s of 86.916.
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled at 97.87 any move above 98.50 could lead this towards 102
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 70$ per barrel.
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
On the other side FII’s net longs after its recent low’s of 20-22% it headed 34-36% now again came down towards 28-29% which may again increase towards 45% almost & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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SEBI SEBI OFFICIAL: Working on rationalizing penalties on brokers, common reporting across exchanges
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India needs 10% nominal GDP growth annually to achieve Viksit Bharat Goal: CII President
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SEBI not considering linking options positions to cash positions.
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India has officially reversed its decade-old mandate requiring coal-fired power plants to install flue-gas desulphurization (FGD) systems—a major rollback of a $30 billion clean-air policy introduced in 2015 : Reuters
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Government to Sell Minority Stake in LIC Through Fresh OFS Plan. The Indian government has given in‑principle approval to offload a further minority stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) via an offer-for-sale (OFS), the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) confirmed
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Rupee recovered one again shown recovery towards 85.183 from its recent high’s of 86.916.
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled marginally below 97 at 96.98
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 68.51$ per barrel.
International news:
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Trump: We will impose a 30% tariff on goods from the European Union
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Trump: We will impose a 30% tariff on Mexico
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Pentagon Strikes Deal to Secure 10,000 Tons of Rare-Earth Magnets Annually. The U.S. Department of Defense has signed a major partnership with MP Materials to build a second magnet manufacturing plant capable of producing 10,000 tons of rare-earth magnets per year by 2028: BFM TV
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Netanyahu told Trump that Israel may launch another strike if Iran resumes its nuclear activities.
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Trump didn’t oppose the warning but emphasized his preference for a diplomatic resolution: WSJ
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India, China & Japan Secure Spots Among World’s Top 10 Tech Markets in 2025
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A new Colliers report, Global Tech Markets: Top Talent Locations 2025, ranks Beijing, Bengaluru, and Tokyo among the global top 10 tech hubs
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 96.38 to now well settled marginally below 97 at 96.98
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 65.93$ & as earlier anticipated tested low’s of 70$ to now settled near to 68.51$ per barrel.
In the institutional segment the FII’s once again turned net seller with net outflow of Rs. 4,511.12 cr. & the DII’s consistently remained massive net buyer with net inflow of Rs. 8,291 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made another high’s 25547.20 & closed at 25149.85 with net loss of 1.20% for the week.
As the Nifty in the coming week ahead is likely to remain vigilant initially with some more consolidative moves near to its short term crucial support levels of 24900-25160 where now immediate potential upside still remains at 26000-26250 kind of levels & if the flow continues Nifty could head towards 27000 kind of level but this could get delayed for next 5-6 Weeks time frame. But within these consolidative times with positive momentum every dip remains a buying opportunity but within specific sectors. This time major Key sectors could be from PSU Banks & PSE Index.
Sensex made high last week at 83806.83 to give a close at 82500.47 with net loss of 1.11%. In the coming week ahead the index may continue to move with positive bias with consolidation on its way. However if in the coming weeks ahead if the current consolidation continues even in the second week of July series then the second half of July series Nifty may not only stop at 86000 but a move towards 87000-88000 could be imminent but the move may get delayed by 5-6 weeks. However the crucial supports still remains within our pre-defined levels of 81000-82000 kind of levels. This time major Key sectors could be from PSU Banks & PSE Index.
The Bank Nifty so far has almost tested near our levels of 58000 making high’s of 57628.40. We continue to remain neutral in this counter where major hurdle now remains at 58000 while crucial support remains at 55000 kinds of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may continue to have targets of 28000-28200 while crucial supports now lie at 26500 kinds of levels.
In “Nifty IT” is now near its crucial support zone of 37500-37000 our earlier target of 41000 remains intact but may get delayed by 5-6 weeks time frame with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25149.85 Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25600 / 26000-26250 / 27000 (As the case may be) Nifty Immediate Support: 24900-25160
Sensex CMP: 82500.47 Sensex Potential Upside Target: 86000 / 87000-88000 (As the case may be) Sensex Immediate Support: 81000-82000
Bank Nifty CMP: 56754.70 Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 58000 Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 55000
Nifty Financial CMP: 26853.10 Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 28000-28200 Nifty Financial Immediate Support: 26000-26500
Nifty IT CMP: 37693.25 Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 41000 Nifty IT Immediate Support: 37000-37500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Coal India (CMP 381): As the Coal sector new surfaces regarding reoval of a compliance this counter may get hit for a potential upside seen towards 420 from CMP 381 with strict SL placed at 350.
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Tata Tech (CMP 711): As India-Russia head for Make in India Rafale jets this company is get to engage in this deal & is likely to get benefitted the most. One can add here at CMP 711 with strict SL placed at 690 one can expect a potential upside towards 881 in no time
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Power Grid (CMP 298): This another large-cp PSU counter looks good to add here at CMP 298 for a potential upside towards 340 with strict SL placed at 280.
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Voltas (1370): In this counter if 1290 remains intact one can expect a potential upside towards 1600 in no time
Mid-Caps:
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Ola Electric (CMP 40): This counter has seen too much of negativity with investors having high risk appetite can accumulate this counter at CMP 40 & can add more if comes to 35 with strict long term SL of 30 one can look for a possible move towards 60-80 in 6 months time frame from hereonwards.
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ABFRL (CMP 77): This counter looks bullish on technical charts for a bullish reversal pattern from CMP 77 with strict SL placed at 70 one can expect a potential upside towards 90.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com Contact: +91-9953934544 Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/ SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985