Dated: 21/06/2025
As we enter into a fresh week the Nifty has been very fragile last week during the initial days as Israel-Iran conflict remained a deep showdown of exchange of dialogues, drones & missiles between the triangular war between Israel-Iran & US up to certain verbal exchanges where the tensions escalation lead to the rise in Crude Oil towards 79.02 (Brent Crude) but settled at 77.26. However, India here remains untouched with the indecisive escalations unless Crude Oil moves above 80$ as this may create issues into the domestic Equity markets.
Nifty defied by the levels of 25000 so long that crossing & sustaining above these level looks like unimaginable thing on Dalaal Street but yet it not only succeeded to cross but closed as well which is now the highest weekly closing since last September 2024. Bulls now have confidence that the current ongoing consolidation may soon come to an end & the one way slow & gradual upmove may again began where Nifty may inch towards unprecedented levels of 25500-25600.
Last week we have already mentioned the global & domestic factors which could affect the Equity markets in the coming days. Following are brief what we mentioned last week:
1) Global Effect of War:
i) Oil Price Spike
ii) Airspace Closure
iii) Aviation Route Disruptions
iv) Multiple War Fronts
v) How will the war affect the oil market?
vi) War Effect on Indian Economy
Here we specifically mentioned that there will be minimal effect on the domestic Equity markets despite the ongoing escalations. The major effect may only come if Crude Oil surpassed 80$ per barrel which in this case is well preserved.
If in the coming week due to the ongoing news of Iranian officials agreeing to the Nuclear treaty then the crude oil may hit 70$ per barrel followed by India Vix may hit 11 which is continuously cooling down since last 2 months from 22 to so far 13.60 has came which could eventually result in rise in Equity markets.
On the contrary Indian domestic Equity markets have nothing negative to show impact but rather line up of positive news which has started since the RBI governor has pushed the economy & banks with massive liquidity driven push for the FY 2025-26. Nifty in the coming week ahead if not restricted by geopolitical conflicts it may surge towards the much awaited upper levels of 25500-25600 kind of levels followed by the crucial support levels which have shifted further higher strictly at 24400 kind of levels which is safe since 1.50 months as of now. This 24400 on the lower levels plays a crucial role as a support in the ongoing upward momentum since it’s unharmed so long. If this gets broken we may get major lower levels (but that doesn’t looks like a possibility so far) while if remains intact we may not only get to see 25500-25600 but in July series we may get to see 26000-26250 kind of levels. Major Key sectors here could be from Banking, IT & PSU Sectors followed by few selected heavy weights like Reliance Industries etc.
However, in Nifty we have previously mentioned that Nifty in the last four months mainly March-April-May & so far in June 2025 shown immense strong rally from the lower levels of 21743.65 to testing high’s of 25114.25 in May 2025 came a long way of recovery almost 15.50% from the lower levels forming consecutive 3 bullish candles on monthly charts which suggests the continuation of bullish move ahead in the month of June as well as in July followed by massive growth in India’s Q4 GDP of 7.40%. However, we do not expect Nifty to further breaking any more below lower levels while major upside can be seen once the upper range of 25500-25600 gets broken up from where 26000-26250 could be seen in the July series but the road to this may slow & gradual as India Vix may now cool off towards lower levels of 11 from 13.60 currently .
This time not only broader markets witnessed a marvelous recovery but the dead portfolios of the investors may also get the heavy lift up in the coming weeks ahead few heavy weight giants came back near to their respective ATH (All Time High) levels. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
• Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but it again declined towards 86.916 again due to war escalation now closed at 86.580
• Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.60 to now well settled near 98.71
• Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 & as earlier anticipated tested high’s of 79.04 (towards 80$) if it retains these then we may get 70$ per barrel in coming weeks ahead (if war doesn’t further escalates)
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,07,360.09 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March, April & May 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 4,03,192.39 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 2.25 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
On the other side FII’s net longs have once again reached towards low’s of 20-22% which may again increase towards 45% almost & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise further towards 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
• India to quadruple uranium imports for nuclear energy mission.
• India PM Modi: Working to finalise free trade agreement.
• India trade ministry official: India, U.S. aiming to sign interim deal before july 9 || India, U.S. bilateral trade deal talks are progressing, sticking to time line of signing deal by fall 2025.
• EU commission is prepared to accept a flat-rate US tariff of 10% under clear conditions.
• GDP India: $4.19 trillion Japan : $4.19 trillion
• GDP per capita japan: $54680 India:$12,130
• Delhivery: India antitrust agency: approves acquisition of at least 99.44% stake in Ecom expess by co
• India Foreign Secy: India does not and will not accept third party mediation relations with Pakistan
• India never accept third party mediation in conflict with Pakistan
•Modi declined trump invite to visit US citing engagement
• Tata Technologies: Co has been selected as a strategic supplier by Volvo cars
• Rupee recovered to 83.667 per but it again declined towards 86.916 again due to war escalation now closed at 86.580
• Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.60 to now well settled near 98.71
• Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 & as earlier anticipated tested high’s of 79.04 (towards 80$) if it retains these then we may get 70$ per barrel in coming weeks ahead (if war doesn’t further escalates)
International news:
• Israeli defense minister Katz directly threatens t assassinate ayatollah khamenei.
• French president macron: France will discuss space strategy with Germany, Britainain and others including UAE and India in a summit on space held on june 2026
• Iran foreign minister Araghchi says doesn’t want to negotiate with US as Israel strikes.
• China commerce ministry, Rare Earth controls: A certain number of applications have already been approved, to speed up review of Rare Earth export license applications.
• Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 97.60 to now well settled near 98.71
• Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 & as earlier anticipated tested high’s of 79.04 (towards 80$) if it retains these then we may get 70$ per barrel in coming weeks ahead (if war doesn’t further escalates)
RBI DEPUTY:
• Pockets of high interest, elevated margins continue to persist in microfinance sector
• MFI Lender with access to low-cost funds have been found charging margins significantly higher than industry
• Frequency of disruption in microfinance sector have increased of late
In the institutional segment the FII’s turned massive net buyer’s with net inflow of Rs. 8,655.60 cr. & the DII’s consistently remained massive net buyer with net inflow of Rs. 12,635.58 cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,632 cr. p.m. rose significantly.
Nifty last week made high’s of 25133.90 & closed at 25112.40 with net gain of 1.59% for the week. Nifty in the coming week ahead if not restricted by geopolitical conflicts it may surge towards the much awaited upper levels of 25500-25600 kind of levels followed by the crucial support levels which have shifted further higher strictly at 24400 kind of levels which is safe since 1.50 months as of now. This 24400 on the lower levels plays a crucial role as a support in the ongoing upward momentum since it’s unharmed so long. If this gets broken we may get major lower levels (but that doesn’t looks like a possibility so far) while if remains intact we may not only get to see 25500-25600 but in July series we may get to see 26000-26250 kind of levels. Major Key sectors here could be from Banking, IT & PSU Sectors followed by few selected heavy weights like Reliance Industries etc.
Sensex made high last week at 82492.43.42 to give a close at 82408.17 with gain of 1.58%. In the coming month this index could also move upward towards the high’s of 85000 with immediate crucial support now lying at 78000-79000. Major Key sectors here could be from Banking, IT & PSU Sectors followed by few selected heavy weights like Reliance Industries etc.
The Bank Nifty this time may hit a high towards 58000 while immediate crucial support lies at 55000 kind of levels.
Meanwhile Nifty Financial Services may hit 27500 while crucial supports now lies at 26000 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” is expect to now rise towards 40000 kind of levels till the end of June 2025 series while crucial supports have shifted higher at 36000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,632 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 25112.40
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 25500-25600 / 26000-26250 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Support: 24400
Sensex CMP: 82408.17
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 85000
Sensex Immediate Support: 78000-79000
Bank Nifty CMP: 56252.85
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 58000
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 55000
Nifty Financial CMP: 266648.70
Nifty Financial Immediate Target: 27500
Nifty Financial Immediate Support: 26000
Nifty IT CMP: 38991.48
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 40000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 36000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
1)NTPC (335): This PSU counter looks like is on the verge of a possible breakout if successfully moves ahead it can move towards 380 in 2 months time frame with strict SL placed at 320.
2) Bank of Baroda (CMP 234): This PSU bank looks like move upward towards 250-255 from CMP 234 with strict SL placed at 225.
3) Muthoot Finance (CMP 2606): If Iran-Israel tension cools down then gold may also get some deep cool off of 5-7% then this counter may also cool off towards 2450 with strict SL placed at 2665.
4) Jio Financials (CMP 294): This counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 230 one can again add here at CMP 294 for trading purpose with strict SL placed at 270 for s potential upside towards 320-356 in short term.
5) Tata Tech (CMP 706): As India-Russia head for Make in India Rafale jets this company is get to engage in this deal & is likely to get benefitted the most. One can add here at CMP 706 with strict SL placed at 690 one can expect a potential upside towards 881 in no time.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985
