Dated: 12/04/2025
It has been a roller coaster ride last week where Bulls & Bears both enjoyed their part on Dalaal Street while both got mercilessly butchered as well with violent moves on either side of the markets. Initially at a time it felt like all is gone from the portfolio to trading positions while on the next few days the revival from dead happened giving relief to millions of traders & investors as due to ongoing Trump Tariff war fear of recession remains at peak where nothing is certain as to what will happen next & who will survive & who will not.
Trump remains a volatile indicator of the broader markets not only on the domestic front but also for the Global Markets where the fear monger bullas & bears remain intact. Any uncertain announcement by Trump takes markets to unchartered territory. Nifty last week started with major setback of another swing low of 21743.65 which immediate revival sets the bulls on the front seat which took the Nifty towards 22923.90 with trumps unexpected pausing of Tariff for another 90 days for non retaliating nations while China paid the price with 145% additional tariff due to its nonstop retaliation with United States. This pause took the Nifty close towards 23000 giving Bulls some hope for revival.
Furthermore Nifty overall fell 17.25% from the ATH of 26277.35 to make a low of 21743.65 & from those lower levels Nifty has now recovered nearly 5.50% nearly. This sharp upmove was clearly indicated by us over several articles in last 2-3 weeks. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened but with finally its 6th month where positive recovery was seen & Bull’s rejoices we now have hope for a smooth but gradual recovery into the broader markets in the coming weeks ahead to continue.
Bulls managed to regain the initial hold on Dalaal Street where major loss was recovered & the close came with nominal loss of 75.9 points i.e. 0.33% at 22828.55. Nifty managed to somehow retain the levels near to 23000 mark & also respecting our earlier indicated levels of 22900-23000 to act as an immediate hurdle zones. We have been mentioning since last 2-3 Weeks consecutively that FII’s are covering up their shorts in Index & Stock derivatives & were clearly seen reducing their selling quantum in Cash segment as well & since last week’s few sessions they have finally turned net buyer’s subsequently 2 weeks with finally after 5 months FII turned marginally net buyer’s on March series with net buying of Rs.2,014.18 which resulted in strong comeback of Bull’s which can be clearly seen last week where the low’s were tested but not retained & pull back was ambiguous.
As earlier anticipated Nifty did faced immediate hurdle within our pre-defined range of 22900-23000 by making high of 22923.90 to finally give a close at 22828.55. However, in the coming weeks ahead the FY 2025-26 is highly likely to continue to face immediate hurdle 23000-232050 within the pre-defined range followed by 23800-23850 kind of levels while on the downside immediate crucial support now remains within the defined range of 21700-22000 on a positional basis while if on the upside 23800-23850 get broken then we could possibly get to see 24000-24250 kind of levels.
Once again though some ease up has been seen in the broader markets but the major hit which the portfolio has seen in last 5 months is still unmatched & still it has far long journey to recover from hereonwards. FII’s have now turned net buyer’s which not only in derivatives segment but also in Cash segment which took a turn in last few trading sessions.
The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:
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India added $1 Trillion into The Economy in the LAST 3-4 years. It Will Add The Next $1 Trillion in the next 2-3 years
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Additional Rs.50,000 cr. OMO purchase by RBI to boost further liquidity in Banking sector
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For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 86.190
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Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI followed by possible further rate cut in April quarter of 25bps
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now stable near 100.10
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 64.76$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
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Existing Tarries been reviewed under trade talk agreement with US
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India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
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Indian Govt.: No increase in Petrol Diesel prices post increase in excise duty of Crude Oil
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India recorder highest ever Goods & Services export of more than $820 Billion in fiscal year 2024-25, nearly 6% growth over previous fiscal year
FII’s so far since October 2024 to till 2nd Week of March 2025 remained on the Net sell side with significant sell off & putting significant pressure on Indian domestic markets & had no as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,,53,873.81 crore combined of October, November, December, January, February, March & so far in April 2025. On the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 3,98,792.85 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 1.78 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.
However, Nifty has so far given 17.25% correction from the top of 26277.35 with data turning positive we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs have now improved 30% almost which has improved significantly from @15-18% & we have consistently been mentioning this to improve lastly. Which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation 21700-22000 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 48% & followed by 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):
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India added $1 Trillion into The Economy in the LAST 3-4 years. It Will Add The Next $1 Trillion in the next 2-3 years
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Additional Rs.50,000 cr. OMO purchase by RBI to boost further liquidity in Banking sector
-
For the first time in last 10 Weeks Rupee recovered to 84.932 per Dollar gave a close at 86.190
-
Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI followed by possible further rate cut in April quarter of 25bps
-
Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now stable near 100.10
-
Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 64.76$
-
India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
-
Existing Tarries been reviewed under trade talk agreement with US
-
India open to lowering Auto import tariffs to as low as 10%
-
Indian Govt.: No increase in Petrol Diesel prices post increase in excise duty of Crude Oil
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India recorder highest ever Goods & Services export of more than $820 Billion in fiscal year 2024-25, nearly 6% growth over previous fiscal year
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Additional Rs.50,000 cr. OMO purchase by RBI to boost further liquidity in Banking sector
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India-UK joint statement: Acknowledge opportunities that overseas listings offer to broaden access to global investors, enhance liquidity.
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India exploring feasibility of allowing its companies to list in London Stock Exchange
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Trump 90 days pause on US reciprocal tariffs a relief for Indian exporters
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India’s Indigo becomes the world’s most valuable airline, with a market cap of $23 billion.
International news:
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US slaps 145% tariff on Chinese imports.
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Germany considers withdrawing 1200 ton gold Stock pile from US in repo site to Trump
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China discusses front loading stimulus to counter tariff hit
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China announces additional 84% tariff on US
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EU considers passing its counter measures due on April 15th against US for 90 days
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Trump pauses tariff for 90 days for the non retaliating nations.
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Continuous easing up of Dollar index & made low of 99.01 to now stable near 100.10
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Brent Crude tested low’s of 58.40 but no stable near 64.76$
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India in talks with United States for mutually beneficial trade deal
Outcome of Monetary Policy
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RBI cuts Repo rates by 25bps at 6% now
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RBI Governor says MPC noted India inflation currently below target
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RBI chief FY-26 real GDP growth seen at 6% v/s 6.7% previously
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RBI chief to issue comprehensive regulations on loans against gold as collateral
RBI Monetary Policy Schedule In FY 2025-26
MONTH |
DATE |
| April | 7,8 AND 9 (2025) (Already Done) |
| June | 4,5 AND 6 (2025) |
| August | 5,6 AND 7 (2025) |
| September | 29,30 (2025) |
| October | 1 (2025) |
| December | 3,4 AND 5 (2025) |
| February | 4,5 AND 6 (2026) |
In the institutional segment the FII’s remained net sellers with net outflow of Rs. 20,911.30 cr. & the DII’s have remained net buyer with net inflow of Rs. 21,955.62cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom & we have now successfully formed a good bottom at 21700-22000 supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,000 cr. p.m. almost stagnant.
Nifty last week made some panic bottom around 21700-22000 range making low’s of 21743.65 to give a close at 22828.55. As earlier anticipated Nifty did faced immediate hurdle within our pre-defined range of 22900-23000 by making high of 22923.90 to finally give a close at 22828.55. However, in the coming weeks ahead the FY 2025-26 is highly likely to continue to face immediate hurdle 23000-232050 within the pre-defined range followed by 23800-23850 kind of levels while on the downside immediate crucial support now remains within the defined range of 21700-22000 on a positional basis while if on the upside 23800-23850 get broken then we could possibly get to see 24000-24250 kind of levels. The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well.
Sensex also made some panic bottom around 71000-72000 zone with low’s around 71425.01 to give a close at 75157.26. In the comint week ahead the Sensex now has its crucial support within the defined range of 71000-72000 while on the upside immediate potential upside now remains at 76600-77000 kind of levels crossing of which could extend the gains towards 78700-79000 kind of levels while any move above 78700-79000 could result in 81000-82000 kind of levels in the coming weeks ahead. The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well.
In Bank Nifty the overall trend shall remain on the positive side with now expected upside levels of may come if it move above 52100 which could be towards 54000-54500 while on the downside immediate support now remains at 49000 kind of levels. The potential upside here now could be supported by major PSU Banks like SBI & BOB etc.
In the Nifty Financial Services we now expect a another ATH towards 26000+ with crucial supports shifting higher within the levels of 23000-23550 kind of levels.
The “Nifty IT” has completed our downside target of 32000-33000 making low’s of 30918.90 last week where major heavy weights shown pressurized selling from the top. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” could find its immediate possible support levels of 30000-32000 kind of levels and while if support remains held up then the potential upside from these levels could possibly be 35000-36000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.
As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 22828.55
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 23000-23250 / 23800-23850 / 24000-24250 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Support: 21700-22000
Sensex CMP: 75157.26
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 76600-77000 / 78700-79000 / 81000-82000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Support: 71000-72000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty CMP: 51002.35
Bank Nifty Hurdle / Immediate Target: 52100 / 54000-54500 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 50000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 24555.55
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 26000+
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 23000-23550
Nifty IT CMP: 32740.85
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 35000-36000
Nifty IT Immediate Support: 30000-32000
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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TCS (CMP 3237): As the Nifty IT index resides at major crucial support zones of 30000-32000 kind of levels this IT giant too could perform so one can add here at CMP 3237 & can be added more on dips towards 3000 with strict SL placed at 2900 for a potential upside towards 3800 in 2-3 months time frame.
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Infosys (CMP 1416): As the Nifty IT index resides at major crucial support zones of 30000-32000 kind of levels this IT giant too could perform this can be added here at CMP 1416 & can be added more on dips towards 1300 with strict SL placed at 1180 for a potential upside towards 1600-1800 in 2 months time frame.
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Jio Financials (CMP 231): This NBFC counter has made Bullish Engulfing on Weekly charts looks good to add here with strict SL placed at 200 one can expect a potential upside towards 300+ kind of levels in no time.
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Samvardhana Motherson (CMP 118): This large-cap auto ancillary counter has been beaten down lately due to US tariff but this counter has least exposure to US markets. Looks good to add here at CMP 118 with strict SL placed at 110 for a potential upside towards 170 in 3 month’s time frame.
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PFC (CMP 401): This large-cap PSU has been on our radar since subdued levels of 380 & once again looks hot to add on decline towards 401 with strict SL now placed at 380 for a potential upside towards 480 in 2 month’s time frame.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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