NIFTY REMAINS STAGNANT THORUGHOUT THE WEEK A MOVE ABOVE 22700-22850 WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRE

Dated: 15/03/2025

It’s been a while since broader markets witnessed some tension free movement as Nifty continued to be clueless in its uni-directional movements leaving investors / traders be fizzled entirely last week. Nifty has been facing immediate hurdle within in our pre-defined levels of 22700-22850 while on the downside 22100-22200 remained untouched as broader markets remained range bound with merely any smooth sectoral rotation seen so far as FII’s not ready to enter longs but intensity of selling in cash markets continues to decline while they continue to add longs in Index & Stock Futures.

After the steady fall in Nifty of nearly 16.50% from the ATH of 26277.35 this if for the first time that Nifty gained slightly 1.93% subsequent to last week following the recovery from the bottom where the low’s of 21964.60 were tested & then a sharp upmove came but eventually last week Nifty once again remained in a tight range bound situation leaving everyone clueless. Though Nifty delivered the losing streak after almost 28years where consecutively 5 months negative close has happened still the hope of the investor’s remains stagnant.

Furthermore in the coming week ahead we continue to expect immediate hurdle within our pre-defined range levels of 22700-22850 followed by major hurdle now lying within the range of 23000-23250 kind of levels while on the downside we continue to crucial supports within the pre-defined levels of 22100-22200 followed by if any deep cut comes could be towards 21287-21500 kind of levels & thereafter a smooth sustainable potential upside could be seen in the broader markets ahead.

This time the though some ease up has been seen in the broader markets but the major hit which the portfolio has seen in last 5 months is still unmatched & still it has far long journey to recover from hereonwards. FII’s have continuously been on the sell side in Cash markets while in derivative segment they are slightly buying in stock futures but are in net shorts in index. This mix view shows some less intensity selling by the foreign institutional investors.

The Indian Equity markets have gained many recent news items where major of the news items are mentioned below:

• India February mutual fund SIP Inflows at RS 26000 CR vs 26400CR MoM

• Repo rate cut of 25bps by RBI followed by possible further rate cut in April quarter of 25bps

• Further liquidity infusion of Rs.1 Lacs cr. by RBI in two tranches of Rs.50,000 cr. March 12^th & 18^th

• Continuous easing up of Dollar index which now is well below 103.72 & made low of 103.22

• GST collection hit another milestone of Rs.1.84 lacs crore in February risen by 9.1%.

• Q3 earnings of major companies are showing positive results furthermore Q4 is expected to add further strength in the Indian Companies ahead.

• Slowdown in the Indian growth rate in 3 quarters of FY 2024-25 but projection of RBI for the FY 2025-26 seems in line.

• Brent Crude tested low’s of 68.33

• USDINR stable at 87.08 which is further to cool off with RBI’s intervention

• DXY (Dollar Index) tested low’s of 103.22

FII’s continued to remain on the Net sell side in cash segment & doesn’t seem to stop anywhere near now but the intensity of selling has reduced significantly but they are adding up longs in Index & Stocks Futures significantly. FII’s have been in no mercy for the Indian domestic Equity markets as their relentless selling has been nonstop where since the beginning of the October 2024 month FII’s have done massive selling amounting to Rs. 3,,44,996.48 crore combined of October, November, December, January & February 2025 so far in March 2025. This has lead the entire pressure on the Indian Domestic Equity Markets overall FII’s have sold nearly Rs. 3 Lacs cr. in the Calendar year 2024 & so far approximately Rs.1.68 lac crore in 2025 while on the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 3,63,828.62 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought more than Rs. 5.26 Lacs cr. & Rs. 1.78 lac crore approx. so far in 2025.

However, Nifty has so far given 16.50% correction from the top of 26277.35 & its 19-20% fall completes at 21287-21500 range where we could finally assume the correction could finally get over once in for all while Nifty has made another history of continuous negative closing of 5 months after 28yrs. On the other side FII’s net longs remained stable @15-18% & which resembles near to the historic low of net long positions by the FII’s. Which continuously signifies & has now possible bottom formation somewhere near 21287-21500 which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty. Now we expect the FII’s long positions to rise towards 24%, 48% & followed by 67% in the coming months ahead which may take Nifty & broader markets again on the higher levels.

In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:

Domestic News (Mainly consists of Union Budget 2025-26 Outcomes):

• Indusind Bank shares crash 20% to 52-week low as lender faces Rs 2k crore Net Worth hit from derivatives discrepancies

• Indusind bank founders willing to inject capital in bank if needed

• Indusind Bank well capitalized financial position remains satisfactory: RBI

• Airtel teams up with Elon Musk’ SpaceX to bring Starlink internet to India

• Reliance Industries : Jio to bring SpaceX’s Starlik high-speed internet to its customers

• Equity fund inflow fell by 26% to RS 29,303 crore in February amid market selloff, shows AMFI data

• The RBI said it would go for open market operation (OMO) auctions to purchase government securities worth ₹1 trillion in two tranches of ₹50,000 crore each on March 12 and March 18. Additionally, a USD/INR buy-sell swap auction for $10 billion with a tenor of 36 months is scheduled for March 24.

• GST collection hit another milestone of Rs.1.84 lacs crore in February risen by 9.1%.

• Slowdown in the Indian growth rate in 3 quarters of FY 2024-25 but projection of RBI for the FY 2025-26 seems in line.

• Brent Crude tested low’s of 68.33

• USDINR stable at 87.08 which is further to cool off with RBI’s intervention

• India Feb mutual fund SIP Inflows at RS 26000 CR vs 26400CR MoM

• India CPI YoY Feb actual : 3.61% vs 4.31% Previous; EST 3.98%

International news:

• US stock market loses $4 trillion in value as Trump lows ahead on tarrifs

• China’s Aluminum Firs win Big on Stunning Drop in Raw Material

• India’s Economic growth to exceed 6.5% in FY26: Moody’s

• DXY (Dollar Index) tested low’s of 103.22

• US CPI MoM Feb actual 0.2% vs 0.5% previous; Est. 0.3%

• US core CPI MoM Feb actual 0.2% vs 0.4% previous; Est. 0.3%

• US CPI YoY Feb actual 2.8% vs 3 % previous; Est. 2.9%

• US core CPI YoY Feb actual 3.1% vs 3.3% previous; Est. 3.2%

• US core CPI Index Feb actual 325.47 vs 324.74 previous; Est. 325.7

• US CPI Index N.S.A. Feb actual 319.08 vs 317.67 previous; Est. 319.27

In the institutional segment the FII’s remained negative with net sell of Rs. 5,729.67 cr. but here DII’s have been the buyer’s with Rs. 5,499.47cr. last week. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data remains near Rs.26,000 cr. p.m. almost stagnant.

Nifty last week remained into a tight range where nor the upside hurdle of 22700-22850 was taken out nor 22100-22200 on the downside was hit both the potential levels were secured but eventually gave a close at 22397.20 with net loss of 155.30 i.e. 0.68%. Nifty has almost corrected so far 16.50% now while moving ahead the possible hurdle now lies within the initial range of 22700-22850 followed by 23000-23250 while a pull back is expected in the coming week ahead towards 22100-22200 below this the crucial support zones of 21287-21500 kind of levels. As by the time Nifty touches 21287-21500 range the overall correction would be almost 19% (near to 20% from ATH). . The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well.

Sensex too remained within the extremely tight range with net loss of 503.67 points i.e. 0.67% last week. The crucial support here remains at 72600 if breached followed by 70000-71000 kind of levels which could also be considered as crucial support levels while on the upside from those levels 75000-77000 could now remain as an immediate target zones. The support from Banking space & Reliance Industries may continue to flourish in coming weeks as well. 

In Bank Nifty the overall trend continues to remain on the sidelines to slightly positive so the crucial support still remains within the pre-defined range of 47500-47800 kind of levels & any breach below this could trigger a downward move towards 45000 kind of levels while on the upside the potential levels remains at 50000 & major trend reversal on a close above 51500 kind of levels. Unlike earlier times major potential upside could be supported by Private Banks forming HDFC Bank & Kotak Banks etc.

In the Nifty Financial Services the crucial supports continues to remain at 22000-22850 kind of levels while the potential up move could get us 24000 kinds of levels.

The “Nifty IT” has completed our downside target of 36000 & tested the low’s of 35834.65 last week where major heavy weights shown pressurized selling from the top. Moving ahead “Nifty IT” could find its immediate possible support levels of 35500 and any breach below this could eventually take us towards lower level of 32000-33000 in the coming weeks ahead while if support of 35500 remains held up then the potential upside from these levels could possibly be 38500-40000 kind of levels with major heavy weight like TCS Infosys & Wipro continued to remain into focus for the moves ahead.

As of February 2025 the number of Demat Accounts has declined to whopping 19cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.

The monthly SIP in Indian markets now remains almost stable at Rs. 26,000 cr. per month.
 

Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:

Nifty CMP:  22397.20
Nifty Potential Upside Target: 22700-22850 / 23000-23250 / 23800-23850 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Target / Support: 22100-22200 / 21287-21500 (As the case may be)

Sensex CMP: 73828.91
Sensex Potential Upside Target: 75000 / 77000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Target / Support: 72600 / 70000-71000 (As the case may be)

Bank Nifty CMP:  48060.40
Bank Nifty Hurdle / Immediate Target: 50000 / 51000-51500 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 47500-47800 / 45000 (As the case may be)

Nifty Financial CMP: 23290
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 24000
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 22000-22850

Nifty IT CMP: 36122.50
Nifty IT Potential Upside Target: 40000
Nifty IT Immediate Target / Support: 35500 / 32000-33000 (As the case may be)

Stock on Radar:

Large Caps:

• Asian Paints (CMP 2231): With crude oil cooling off this counter looks like can for bottom here somewhere within the range of 2183-2231 with strict SL placed at 2070 one can look for a potential upside towards 2552 in 3 months time frame.

• Power Grid (CMP 268): Since India is expected to hit one of the hottest summer in this summer season power generation is likely to remain into high demand. Hence this counter looks good for the next 3 months perspective & can be added here at CMP 268 & can be added more if comes to 250 with strict SL placed at 233 one can expect a potential upside towards 310-320 in next 2-3 months time frame.

• NTPC (CMP 339): Another power generation & distribution company which could benefit from heat levels could be this. Looks good to accumulate here at CMP 339 & can be added more if comes to 318 with strict SL placed at 290 for a potential upside towards 380-390 within next 3 months time frame.

• Reliance Industries (CMP 1248): This large cap counter is the only key factor which could in its entirely lift up the markets. We have mentioned this in our earlier posts as well & this counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of below 1200. This counter looks good to add in portfolio at CMP 1249 & can be added more if comes back to 1200 with strict SL placed at 1100 one can look for a potential upside towards 1500-1600 in 3 months time frame.

• Jubilant Foodworks (CMP 596): This counter looks attractive to add on dips towards 580 with strict SL placed at 540 for a potential upside towards 650-750 in 2-3 months time frame.

About the Author:

Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 13+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.

He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.

Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985