Dated: 23/11/2024
As earlier anticipated Bull’s did came back in second half of the November 2024 where a single day momentum bought back confidence of the entire markets. Since the beginning of October 2024 FII’s have been relentlessly selling into the Indian domestic Equity Markets which lead the overall fall of nearly 3013 points from the ATH of 26277.35 where the bottom was tested towards 23264.15.
Broadly the entire move was based on the massive selling by FII’s amounting to Rs. 1,55,393.20 cr. nearly by them since October 2024 overall FII’s have sold nearly Rs. 2,80,425.66 cr. in the Calendar year 2024 while on the contrary DII’s were the main supporters of the entire Indian domestic Equity Markets with whopping buying of Rs. 1,44,813.80 cr. since the beginning of October 2024 & in the Calendar year 2024 they have bought nearly Rs. 4,85,425.62 cr.
Nifty last week made a low around 23263.15to give a close near to Weekly high at 23907.25. Nifty surged massive 692.95 points from its bottom while in a single day it surged nearly 600 points in its last trading session i.e. Friday which bought back the hope of Dalaal Street where bulls are likely to rule the entire street as Nifty made “Bullish Hammer” kind of pattern on its Weekly charts which means the bottom formation of the entire selling trend has been completed & from here onwards with BJP getting majority in Maharashtra election the potential upmove may take Nifty higher towards 24550 & if in the coming week ahead if we get a close on or above to 24550 the entire selling trend will get reversed & the ferocious rally in the entire market may come back & whole December 2024 & January 2025 could be into the grips of Bulls which may take them towards another ATH of 26500-27000.
In our last article we have clearly mentioned than the entire expected upmove could be broadly supported by Banking & Financial Services sector followed by “Nifty IT” sector which if holds on the current levels could trigger the potential upside into the broader markets. In some cases Nifty PSU Banks may also outperform & support the broader markets. The broader markets may still follow the same catch up with Banking & Financial Services sector followed by “Nifty IT” sector on the upper front while certain Heavy Weights specifically Reliance industries & TCS are likely to lead the entire potential upmove from here onwards.
However, we have also clearly mentioned the expected potential upside could be supported by the FII’s net longs now stand near to 22-24% which continuously signifies the bottom formation somewhere near. & history has shown whenever FII’s have 20-25% of net long level positions the bottom has been made somewhere near which indeed has turned the game & bottom was formed in Nifty.
In the wholesome broader markets witnessed some key events & their outcomes last week which are described as follows:
Domestic News:
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India’s forex reserves fell by $50 billion to around $ 657 billion from $705 billion in last 2 months.
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SBI was recognised as the best bank in India for the year 2024 by global finance magazine.
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INDIA’S foreign reserves had their biggest weekly fall ever indicating the central bank likely sold dollars in the market to support the local currency that fell to a record low this week.
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Adani stocks crash up to 20% after Gautam Adani charges in US IN $ 250 MLN BRIBERY case for Indian solar contracts.
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Adani group market -cap plummets RS 2.2 LAKH CRORE as stocks fall up to 20% on US bribery charges.
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JIO lost 10.9 million customers after raising prices, while BSNL gained 2.9 million customers.
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India has fined Meta over $25 million for forcing WhatsApp users to agree to a sweeping data sharing policy with other Meta platforms.
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India is set play a pivotal role in global workforce growth, contributing 20% of it between 2023 and 2050.
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Nifty IT index rises 2% after US labour market data boosts sentiment.
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INDIA FX reserves, USD actual 657.89 B vs 65B PREVIOUS
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MSCI Rebalancing on 25/11/2024 – The adjustments from this MSCI rejig are poised to enhance India’s representation in the MSCI Emerging Market index from 19.3% to approximately 19.8%. The change positions India as a more attractive destination for foreign institutional investors [FIIs] with expected total inflow reaching around $2.5 billion major inn & outflow are:
| S.NO | NAME OF COMPANIES | INFLOW | OUTFLOW |
| 1 | Voltas Ltd | $ 313 Million | |
| 2 | BSE Ltd | $ 224 MILLION | |
| 3 | HDFC Bank | RS 15759 CRORES | |
| 4 | Reliance Industries | $198 MILLION | |
| 5 | ICICI Bank | $166 MILLION | |
| 6 | Infosys | $148 MILLION | |
| 7 | Bharti Airtel | $105 MILLION | |
| 8 | SBI | RS.2561.99 MILLION | |
| 9 | TCS | $92 MILLION | |
| 10 | Adani green energy | $173 MILLION | |
| 11 | Adani power | $111 MILLION |
International
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More big changes are coming to fintech regulation, which are likely to affect everything from buying, pay later& earned wage.
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US business activity is expanding and the demand outlook brightened in anticipation of incoming Trump administration policies
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Finance stock breaks out to all -time high amid Trump trade push.
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ECONOMIST sees the Federal Reserve taking a more measured approach to interest rate cut next year.
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Oil prices climb 2% on further escalation in Russia-Ukraine missile exchange.
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UK Energy bills to Rise in sign of continuing inflation risk
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Out of the surveyed companies moving out of China in 2024.
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Starbucks is said to consider selling stake in Chinese business.
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Bitcoin closing in on $100,000 level even as investors question rally stamina.
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UKRAINE has conducted its first strike using ATACMS missiles inside Russia
As earlier anticipated “Nifty IT” has shown strength last week as it enters to our previously mentioned crucial support zones of 40000-41500 & bounced back towards 43436.15 to give a close at 43332.10. In all these turmoil & bottom formation the one sector which stood tall was “Nifty IT” which remained untouched in last 7 weeks as of now where investors / trades remained into panic with bleeding portfolio but this sector stood tall. In our overall view “Nifty IT” sector continues to have its crucial support within the pre-defined range of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 44000-45000 on an immediate basis i.e. in short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
In the institutional segment the FII’s have massively sold nearly Rs. 11,414.18cr. in a single week & so far more than Rs. 1,55,393.90 cr. so far since beginning of October 2024 but here DII’s have been the best buyer’s with Rs. 11,036.76 cr. last week which helped Nifty to retain the bottom of 23300-23400. FII’s have been brutal but history has shown whenever FII’s have shown merciless selling pressure we somehow make another bottom supported by DII’s massive buying as monthly retail SIP data surpassed Rs.25,000 cr. p.m.
In Nifty finally bulls have came back last week. Nifty made another low of 23263.15 to give a close at 23907.25 with net gain of 374.55 i.e. 1.60% gain for the week. Nifty has finally made bottom last week with Bullish Hammer kind of pattern formation on the weekly charts. IN the coming weeks ahead the major crucial positional support now remains within the defined range of 23000-23300 while immediate potential upside now remains at 24550. Furthermore major upside could be seen if in next week we get a Monthly closing on or above 24550 then in December 2024 & January 2025 we have higher chance of hitting another ATH towards 26500-27000. However, the entire follow-up is set for a potential upside the major movement could be supported well by few heavy weights like; Reliance Industries Ltd. , TCS (brokerage firms outlook remains positive post results), HDFC Bank, SBI & PNB etc.
Meanwhile Sensex too made bottom at 76802.73 to give a close at 79117.11 with net gain of 1536.80 points i.e. net upside of 1.98% for the week. The crucial support still remains at our pre-defined levels of 76700-77000 on a positional basis with potential upside towards 81000-82225 & any close on or above 81000 on monthly basis next week the potential upside could take Sensex towards another ATH in next 2 months which could be around 86000-87000 kind of levels. However, the entire follow-up is set for a potential upside the major movement could be supported well by few heavy weights like; Reliance Industries Ltd, TCS (brokerage firms outlook remains positive post results), HDFC Bank, SBI & PNB etc.
Bank Nifty as earlier anticipated may continue to outperform & support the entire upmove of Nifty this time. The crucial support here may continue to remain on our pre-defined level of 49500-50000 while immediate potential upside still remains at 53000-54000 range. The broader range could be support by certain heavy weight Private Banks like HDFC Bank & some PSU heavy weight banks like PNB & SBI etc.
In Nifty Financial Services immediate crucial support remains at 22800-23000 with potential upside now remains at 24400-24500 in the coming month ahead.
“Nifty IT” has shown strength last week as it enters to our previously mentioned crucial support zones of 40000-41500 & bounced back towards 43436.15 to give a close at 43332.10. In all these turmoil & bottom formation the one sector which stood tall was “Nifty IT” which remained untouched in last 7 weeks as of now where investors / trades remained into panic with bleeding portfolio but this sector stood tall. In our overall view “Nifty IT” sector continues to have its crucial support within the pre-defined range of 40000-41500 till the time this remains safe the broader trend in this sector is likely to remain unchanged i.e. bullish in short term as well as long term. The pre-defined upside potential of “Nifty IT” remains at 44000-45000 on an immediate basis i.e. in short term while our positional view towards 53000 mark till March 2024 remains intact in the second half of the FY 2024-25. In the between the heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to remain into focus.
Till October 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 20cr. this not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
The monthly SIP in Indian markets now raised at Rs. 25,000 cr. per month.
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 23907.25
Nifty Immediate Target : 24550 / 26500-27000 (As the case may be)
Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 23000-23300
Sensex CMP: 79117.11
Sensex Immediate Target: 81000-82225 / 86000-87000 (As the case may be)
Sensex Immediate Crucial Support: 76700-77000
Bank Nifty CMP: 51135.40
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 53000-54000
Bank Nifty Immediate Crucial Support: 49500-50000
Nifty Financial CMP: 23623.75
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 24400-24500
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 22800-23000
Nifty IT CMP: 43332.10
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 44000-45000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 40000-41500
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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Reliance (CMP 1265): This counter looks good to add here at CMP 1265 with broader markets looking bullish this heavy weight giant may rise from here onwards at 1265 the potential upside form here on wards could be around 1600 in the next 3-6mths time frame.
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Bajaj Finance Ltd. (CMP 6684): This large-cap NBFC counter has been bullish hammer pattern on weekly charts. One can add here at CMP 6684 with strict SL placed at 6450 one can looks for potential upside towards 7200 in the coming weeks ahead.
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Dmart (CMP 3631): This large cap has corrected nearly 34% from its recent high’s of 5485. Looks like the selloff is about to get over here somewhere. One can accumulate here at CMP 3631 with SL placed at 3500 for potential upside towards 4500-4700 in 3 months time frame.
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Godrej Consumer Products (CMP 1193): This large cap counter looks like can form bottom here somewhere at 1192 with immediate crucial support at 1100 (Stop Loss) one can looks for a potential upside towards 1320 in the coming months.
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Jio Financials (CMP 313): This large cap NBFC counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 230-250 & still looks for a poised upside from here onwards 313 with strict SL placed at 300 for an estimated possible target of 520 in 2 months time frame.
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AB Capital (CMP 187): This large cap NBFC counter looks good to add here at CMP 187 with potential upside of 250 in 1 month time frame.
Mid- Caps:
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Paisalo Digital (CMP 47): This counter looks like has formed bottom here at CMP 47 with strict SL placed at 39 one can expect potential upside towards 61 in coming days ahead.
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India Tourism (CMP 580): This mid-cap counter looks like can complete its selloff from top of 931. Looks good to accumulate at CMP 580 with strict SL placed at 500 one can expect the potential upside towards 750 in 3 months time frame.
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Burger King (CMP 79): This mid-cap counter looks attractive to add here at CMP 85 with SL placed at 60 with potential upside towards 115-125 in 2 months time frame.
Small & Mid-Caps:
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Rajnandini Metals (CMP 9): This micro-cap counter looks like can form bottom here at CMP 9 with strict SL placed at 6 one can looks for a potential upside towards 15 in 3 months time frame.
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Hathway Cable & Datacom (CMP 18): This small cap counter looks like can move 20-25% in short term with marginal SL placed at 16 once can accumulate here at CMP 18 with potential upside towards 25-26.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
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