Dated: 27/07/2024
Nifty is not ready to give up that easily as it continues to make ATH every week no matter what news comes it all absorbs up easily. This all makes sense if Mutual Fund houses are in liquid corpus of Rs.80, 000 – Rs1, 00,000 cr. lying within their hands. With these despite some neutralized to negative factors prevailing into the Budget 2024 all negativity / correction got easily absorbed inn.
Another week another ATH towards 24860.05 made by the Nifty to nullify any negativity prevailing on Dalaal Street giving another ATH closing at 24849.90 which denotes that heat of bulls are still left for furthermore upside towards 25450 kinds of levels. Meanwhile in the near term 24000 is now the crucial base & till the time it remains safe bears have no chance of survival while bulls are rigid for the biased upside driven purely by the liquidity into the system.
As Union-Budget 2024 did not delivered upto the mark statement for the broader markets but allocation of budget into several sectors will play crucial role in the upcoming days. While in the upcoming week US Fed meeting is likely to hold & may play some vital role in marginal volatility. However, our beloved “Nifty IT” is likely to remain mildly bullish in short run while we continue to expect Nifty IT to test 53000 mark by March 2025 followed by several pull backs & cool offs towards 38000-36000 along its way but eventually it has full potential to easily achieve 53000 magnificent mark by March 2025.
On a full potential the heavy weight giants like TCS, Infosys & Wipro are expected to continue to outperform in “Nifty IT” The view remains bullish & can be added on cool off of 5-7% from current levels in these counters only.
As earlier anticipated India Vix tested 16.065 kind of levels & cool off imminently & expected to remain low as of now. The continuous cool off India Vix is expected.
As per the last release on June 1, gross GST collections in the first two months of the current financial year stood at Rs 3.83 lakh crore. “This represents an impressive 11.3 per cent year-on-year growth, driven by a strong increase in domestic transactions (up 14.2 per cent) and marginal increase in imports (up 1.4 per cent). After accounting for refunds, the net GST revenue in till May 2024 stood at Rs 3.36 lakh crore, reflecting a growth of 11.6 per cent compared to the same period last year”, the release said.
Further detailed structure of the said report are as follow:
-
India’s gross Goods and Services Tax(GST) revenue collection in the month of June stood at Rs 1,61,497 crore, registering a rise of 12 per cent on a year-on year basis
-
The GST collections for the month of May 2024 were recorded at Rs 1.73 lakh crore.
-
This was the fourth successive month that GST revenues have been over Rs 1.6 lakh crore mark.
-
Of the total gross GST revenue collected in June CGST is Rs 31,013 crore, SGST is Rs 38,292 crore, IGST is Rs 80,292 crore (including Rs 39,035 crore collected on import of goods) and cess is Rs 11,900 crore (including Rs 1,028 crore collected on import of goods).
The Indian government’s direct tax collection increased by 20.99% YoY to ₹4.62 lakh crore from April 1 June 17, boosted by a 27.34% increase in advance tax collection. The gross direct tax collection was ₹5.15 lakh crore, up 22.19% from the previous year. The income tax department issued refunds totaling ₹53,322 crore, 33.70% higher than the previous year.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
Institutional players were net biased on each factors last week. When FII’s remained in net outflow of nearly Rs.4,721.26 cr. last week while DII’s continued to remain net buyer’s with net further inflow of Rs.8,109.78 cr.
Nifty last week once again continued to hit ATH by making another ATH of 24861.15 to give a close at 24834.85 giving net gain of 303.95 i.e. up by nearly 1.23% for the week forming bullish hammer kind of pattern on Weekly charts which continues to cheer-up the adamant bulls. As we move ahead with a fresh week with expected marginal volatility due to US-Fed meeting the crucial base support as of now remains at 24000 mark with expected possible target of 25450 kind of levels. However, the sector specific movement is highly likely to remain into the focus. On a specific sector remain sideways to highly bullish on Nifty IT with heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to outperform the broader markets.
Sensex is yet to make another ATH but managed to make a high of 81427.18 to give a close at giving net gain for the week of 728.07 i.e. net gain of almost 0.90% forming Bullish Hammer on the Weekly charts where bulls remained on the upper hand while bears continued to face the defeat. As we have mentioned earlier we expect marginal volatility due to US-Fed meeting the crucial support levels now remains at 79000 mark while potential upside from hereonwards now remains at 83000-83500 kind of levels. However, the sector specific movement is highly likely to remain into the focus. On a specific sector remain sideways to highly bullish on IT sector with heavy weights like TCS Infosys & Wipro may continue to outperform the broader markets.
Bank Nifty on the other hand now has its crucial support levels of 50000 mark with potential expected upside of 53000 mark in the upcoming week. However, the heavy weight giants here HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank & SBI are highly likely to outperform the broader markets in the Private & PSU Banks sector.
In Nifty Financial Services the crucial support now lies at 22900-22800 kind of levels with potential upside expected towards 23850-24000 kind of levels.
In Nifty IT sector we have been consistently bullish for 40000 mark & we have successfully got it by making recent ATH of 41071.55 to give a close at 41002.50. We now remain neutral to slightly bullish for the upcoming week but we have been already adding up that the second half of the FY 2024-25 would be completely of “Nifty IT” sector boosting heavy weights like TCS, Infosys & Wipro etc. We have now upgrading our positional target in Nifty IT towards 53000 magnificent mark by March 2025 any cool off towards 38000-36000 remains an opportunity to add long heavy longs. Stay bullish in this sector with any marginal dip in the heavy weight counter like 5-7% would be an excellent opportunity to add up the longs.
Till March 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 14.39cr. which not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
In the FY 2023-24 so far the Direct Tax collection has amounting to whopping Rs. 18, 90,259 cr. has seen the surge of nearly 19.88% as compared to its previous year collection of Rs. 15,76,776 cr. .
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 24834.85
Nifty Immediate Target: 25450
Nifty Immediate Support: 24000
Sensex CMP: 81,332.72
Sensex Immediate Target: 83000-83500
Sensex Immediate Support: 79000
Bank Nifty CMP: 51295.95
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 53000 / 54000-55000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Support: 50000
Nifty Financial CMP: 23316.70
Nifty Financial Crucial Target: 23900-24000
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 22900-22800
Nifty IT CMP: 40977.35
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 42000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 38000 / 36000 (As the case may be)
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
-
HDFC Bank (CMP 1618): This heavy weight banking giant looks good to accumulate here at CMP 1618 with strict SL placed at 1566 for an estimated possible target of 1700-1800 in 2 months time frame.
-
Adani Enterprises (CMP 3080): We have been bullish on this counter cine subdued 2070 levels we now still remain bullish from CMP 3080 with SL placed at 2980 for an estimated possible target of 3300 for the week.
-
Bank of Baroda (CMP 250): This PSU banking counter looks good for a short term reveral towards 270-275 with strict SL placed at 240 for the week.
-
Kotak Mahindra Bank (CMP 1814): This large-cap banking giant has recently posted excellent results which beats streets estimates expect 2000 in a month time frame with strict SL placed at 1720.
-
Jio Financials (CMP 332): This large-cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 320 & still can be added here at CMP 332 with strict SL placed at 300 one can expect possible target of 420 in July of August series.
-
Asian Paints (CMP 2950): This large cap counter looks good to add 1 quarter before Diwali. One can add here at CMP 2950 for an estimated possible target of 3500 till December 2024 with strict SL placed at 2600.
Mid- Caps:
-
Anupam Rasayan (CMP 783): This specialty chemical mid-cap counter looks like can form bottom here somewhere at 783. One can accumulate here at CMP 783 with strict SL placed at 700 for an estimated possible target of 970-1200 within next 6 months time frame.
-
KRBL (CMP 307): This rice sector giant has been on radar from 268 levels. This still looks attractive at CMP 307 with strict SL placed at 270 one can expect an upside potential of 427 in 3 months time frame.
-
Happiest Minds Technologies (CMP 819): In the IT Sector the only unperformed stock is Happiest Minds. If on the downside 740 remains safe one can expect an immediate upside towards 1000-1300 in next 6 months.
-
RBL Bank (CMP 236): This mid-cap banking counter has been on correction mode lately but posted excellent results. This looks attractive at here CMP 236 with strict SL placed at 220 for an estimated possible target of 270-320 in 6 months time frame.
Small / Micro Caps:
-
Som Distilleries & Breweries (CMP 111): This small cap counter looks like can give 40% upside in next 6 months time frame. One can accumulate here at CMP 111 with SL placed at 94 for an estimated possible target of 145-155.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
Website: https://vgstockresearch.com/
SEBI Reg. No.: INH100007985