Dated: 20/07/2024
Another ATH for the Nifty last week taking Nifty inching closer towards 25000 mark by making high’s of 24853.80 but failure to retain the gains by the bulls remains a concern for the upcoming week as bulls took the closing towards 24530.90 making Gravestone Doji kind of pattern on top of Weekly charts & making bulls obliged to run for cover just before the upcoming union budget.
As of now Nifty has almost tested 25000 with high’s of 24853.80 while “Nifty IT” has successfully completed our foremost target of 40000 mark by making high’s of 40584.95 & “Nifty FMCG” too successfully completed our target of 60000 mark with high’s of 61468.95. Meanwhile all the three indices made a new ATH with record breaking volumes all this just in last week.
For the upcoming week the Union-Budget 2024 is coming & sheer volatility may hit the Dalaal Street which could be descendent with formation of Gravestone Doji on weekly charts of Nifty while Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT could remain neutral to slightly bullish in the coming week ahead. However, “Nifty IT” now has an upgraded target of 53000 magnificent mark by March 2025 which could be followed by several pull backs & cool offs towards 38000-36000 along its way but eventually it has full potential to easily achieve 53000 magnificent mark by March 2025.
On a full potential the heavy weight giants like TCS, Infosys & Wipro all outperform in “Nifty IT” but after certain cool off from current levels. The view remains bullish & can be added on cool off of 5-7% from current levels in these counters only.
After the India Vix from 9.85 tested 31.710 & then eventually cooled off towards 11.63 completing our target range of 13-14 now it is trading at 13.80. It is highly likely to rise once again till the upcoming Budget in July series towards the broader levels of 18-20 & volatility once again to hit the Dalaal Street.
As per the last release on June 1, gross GST collections in the first two months of the current financial year stood at Rs 3.83 lakh crore. “This represents an impressive 11.3 per cent year-on-year growth, driven by a strong increase in domestic transactions (up 14.2 per cent) and marginal increase in imports (up 1.4 per cent). After accounting for refunds, the net GST revenue in till May 2024 stood at Rs 3.36 lakh crore, reflecting a growth of 11.6 per cent compared to the same period last year”, the release said.
Further detailed structure of the said report are as follow:
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India’s gross Goods and Services Tax(GST) revenue collection in the month of June stood at Rs 1,61,497 crore, registering a rise of 12 per cent on a year-on year basis
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The GST collections for the month of May 2024 were recorded at Rs 1.73 lakh crore.
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This was the fourth successive month that GST revenues have been over Rs 1.6 lakh crore mark.
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Of the total gross GST revenue collected in June CGST is Rs 31,013 crore, SGST is Rs 38,292 crore, IGST is Rs 80,292 crore (including Rs 39,035 crore collected on import of goods) and cess is Rs 11,900 crore (including Rs 1,028 crore collected on import of goods).
The Indian government’s direct tax collection increased by 20.99% YoY to ₹4.62 lakh crore from April 1 June 17, boosted by a 27.34% increase in advance tax collection. The gross direct tax collection was ₹5.15 lakh crore, up 22.19% from the previous year. The income tax department issued refunds totaling ₹53,322 crore, 33.70% higher than the previous year.
Advance tax collection in FY till June 15 surged 27.6% to ₹1.48 lakh crore, with ₹1.14 lakh crore as corporate tax and ₹34,362 crore as personal income tax, indicating a strong economy and corporate performance.
The Centre’s gross tax collections (post refunds but before transfers to states), stood at Rs 4.6 trillion in the first two-months of the current financial year, 15.9% higher than the year year-ago level, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Friday. This is against 10.6% annual growth pegged in the Budget for FY25.
Net tax revenue (after refunds and after devolution to states) during April-May, stood at Rs 3.19 trillion, accounting for 12% of the Budget estimate of Rs 26.02 trillion. However, during the same period of FY24, net tax revenue had accounted for about 16% of the Budget target.
Nifty last week continued its journey towards another ATH by making high’s of 24853.80 to give a close at 24530.90 with efforts of it testing 25000 while making Gravestone Doji on Weekly charts which now fills the shivers around the bulls & bears may get the taste of win in the coming week ahead. In Nifty 25000 mark may now act as Lakshman Rekha & the cool off / profit booking could be imminent towards 23991–23650 kind of levels. In the July series the run-up for higher India Vix has began & it is expected to test towards 18-20 till the Budget session.
Sensex too carried on its journey towards another ATH 81587.76 to give a close at 80604.65 completing out target of 81000 mark & thereafter making Gravestone Doji kind of pattern on Weekly charts top. It the high’s of 81600 remains safe it has potential of cool off / profit booking towards the lower levels of 78000-76500. . In the July series the run-up for higher India Vix has began & it is expected to test towards 18-20 till the Budget session.
Bank Nifty however if far from making another ATH with results of heavy weights like Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank & in mid-cap counter RBL Bank posting excellent results this may hold up these levels but with volatilities we remain neutral in this indices with 53000 on the upside as immediate resistance while 52000 being immediate support levels. Any side breach would provide us towards 54000-55000 / 50000-49500 kind of levels respectively on the either side.
In Nifty Financial Services may show profit booking towards 23000 kind of levels while immediate resistance remains at 23900 kind of levels.
In Nifty IT sector we have been consistently bullish for 40000 mark & we have successfully got it by making recent high’s of 40682.70 to give a close at 39923.30. We now remain neutral to slightly bullish for the upcoming week but we have been already adding up that the second half of the FY 2024-25 would be completely of “Nifty IT” sector boosting heavy weights like TCS, Infosys & Wipro etc. We have now upgrading our positional target in Nifty IT towards 53000 magnificent mark by March 2025 any cool off towards 38000-36000 remains an opportunity to add long heavy longs. Stay bullish in this sector with any marginal dip in the heavy weight counter like 5-7% would be an excellent opportunity to add up the longs.
Till March 2024 the number of Demat Accounts has risen to whopping 14.39cr. which not only helps the capital markets directly but also directly to Equity investments.
In the FY 2023-24 so far the Direct Tax collection has amounting to whopping Rs. 18, 90,259 cr. has seen the surge of nearly 19.88% as compared to its previous year collection of Rs. 15,76,776 cr. .
Brief Levels of Nifty / Sensex/ Bank Nifty / Nifty Financials / Nifty IT:
Nifty CMP: 24530.90
Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 25000
Nifty Immediate Target: 23991-23650
Sensex CMP: 80604.65
Sensex Immediate Hurdle: 82000
Sensex Immediate Target: 78000-76500
Bank Nifty CMP: 52217.75
Bank Nifty Immediate Hurdle: 53000 / 54000-55000 (As the case may be)
Bank Nifty Immediate Target: 52000 / 50000-49500 (As the case may be)
Nifty Financial CMP: 23605.55
Nifty Financial Crucial Hurdle: 23900
Nifty Financial Crucial Support: 23000
Nifty IT CMP: 39923.30
Nifty IT Potential Upside: 41000 / 53000 (As the case may be)
Nifty IT Crucial Supports: 38000 / 36000 (As the case may be)
Stock on Radar:
Large Caps:
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HDFC Life (CMP 636): This life insurance counter is all set for a cool off if 660 are safe once can expect a cool off towards 611 in next 2-3 weeks time frame.
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Reliance Industries (CMP 3110): This large cap industry giant looks like can cool off towards 3000-2970 from CMP 3110 with strict SL placed at 3220.
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BSE (CMP 2253): This unique business counter (basically monopoly in listed counter) looks like can form bottom near to 2100-2150 with strict SL placed at 1900 one can expect an upside potential of 2600-3000 in next 3 months time frame.
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Kotak Mahindra Bank (CMP 1822): This large-cap banking giant has recently posted excellent results which beats streets estimates expect 2000 in a month time frame with strict SL placed at 1780.
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Titan (CMP 3259): This large cap counter looks good to accumulate here at CMP 3259 with strict SL placed at 3000 for an estimated possible target of 3400-3800 in next 3 months time frame.
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Jio Financials (CMP 339): This large-cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 320 & still can be added here at CMP 339 with strict SL placed at 300 one can expect possible target of 420 in July of August series.
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Asian Paints (CMP 2946): This large cap counter looks good to add 1 quarter before Diwali. One can add here at CMP 2946 for an estimated possible target of 3500 till December 2024 with strict SL placed at 2600.
Mid- Caps:
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Anupam Rasayan (CMP 785): This specialty chemical mid-cap counter looks like can form bottom here somewhere at 785. One can accumulate here at CMP 785 with strict SL placed at 700 for an estimated possible target of 970-1200 within next 6 months time frame.
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KRBL (CMP 305): This rice sector giant has been on radar from 268 levels. This still looks attractive at CMP 305 with strict SL placed at 270 one can expect an upside potential of 427 in 3 months time frame.
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Berger Paints (CMP 524): As we are now one quarter away from Diwali this counter can outperform from hereonwards. One can buy at CMP 524 with strict SL placed at 470 for an estimated possible target of 616 in next couple of months.
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Happiest Minds Technologies (CMP 815): In the IT Sector the only unperformed stock is Happiest Minds. If on the downside 740 remains safe one can expect an immediate upside towards 1000-1300 in next 6 months.
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RBL Bank (CMP 240): This mid-cap banking counter has been on correction mode lately but posted excellent results. This looks attractive at here CMP 240 with strict SL placed at 220 for an estimated possible target of 270-320 in 6 months time frame.
Small / Micro Caps:
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Shahlon Silk (CMP 20.73): This micro-cap counter has been on our radar since subdued levels of 19.53 one can still accumulate here at CMP 20.73 with strict SL placed at 18 for an estimated possible target of 27-32 within next 6 months time frame.
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Som Distilleries & Breweries (CMP 110): This small cap counter looks like can give 40% upside in next 6 months time frame. One can accumulate here at CMP 110 with SL placed at 94 for an estimated possible target of 145-155.
About the Author:
Mr. Vishal Gupta a SEBI Registered Research Analyst is the founder of “VG STOCK RESEARCH”, founder of “THE ANALYSIS ROOM”, a writer & an advisor having rich experience in Indian Equity Markets who has spent years comprehending an industry wide shift and risk management with more than 12+ years exploring in depth analysis of the Equity & Derivatives with accuracy of 90% and above.
He has also been into teaching Fundamental Analysis for quite some time giving investors/traders comprehensive knowledge & skills of Indian Equity Markets.
Email I’d: contact@vgstockresearch.com
Contact: +91-9953934544
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